Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears – Week 3 NFL Preview
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Odds: Chicago Bears -1 | Total: 50.5
The Rundown
We’ve got an efficiency puzzle here, and the market might be leaning the wrong way. Chicago opened -1.5, trimmed to -1, but that move says more about money respecting Dallas than love for the Bears. The Cowboys’ metrics are simply better. Dallas is giving up 58.9 yards per point on defense versus Chicago’s 67.2 — and with 11–12 possessions in play, that gap is meaningful. The Bears just coughed up 511 yards and 52 points to Detroit, and you don’t fix those breakdowns in six days. Dallas, meanwhile, needed overtime against the Giants, but their 47.3 yards per point efficiency (8th in NFL) keeps them in the conversation. Add in Jaylon Johnson’s injury, and suddenly the Cowboys’ passing attack has a clear target to exploit.
Why Dallas Has the Edge
Red zone efficiency is where this one tilts. Dallas converts 71.4% of their trips into touchdowns (7th), while Chicago lets opponents score at an 83.3% clip (29th). That’s a 12-point swing projected across four or five red zone chances. Worse for the Bears, they’ve already allowed six red zone TD passes in just eight attempts. With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens roaming free against a secondary missing its anchor, Dak Prescott has favorable matchups on the downs that decide games.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Dallas 2.34 (8th) vs Chicago 1.89 (19th)
- Yards Per Play: Dallas 6.2 vs Chicago 5.1
- Success Rate: Dallas 47.8% vs Chicago 42.1%
- Drive Success Rate: Dallas 72.4% vs Chicago 58.7%
- Explosive Play Rate: Dallas 14.2% vs Chicago 9.8%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Dallas 18.5% vs Chicago 26.9%
These aren’t small edges — they stack. Dallas generates more explosives, sustains more drives, and avoids empty possessions. Chicago’s defense is allowing explosive plays on 18.7% of snaps, nearly double the league average. Combine that with a bottom-five third-down defense (52.4% conversion allowed), and it’s a recipe for sustained Cowboys drives. Dallas’s defense isn’t perfect, but at least they create negative plays (5.7 TFL per game vs Chicago’s 3.2). That hidden yardage matters.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The number tells the story: Bears -1.5 down to -1. Sharps are leaning Cowboys, handle splits show bigger wagers backing Dallas despite a slight ticket edge on Chicago. Total nudged down from 51 to 50.5. Books are bracing for red zone touchdowns rather than field goals, which often leads to fewer total points than raw yardage suggests. Jaylon Johnson’s injury hasn’t been fully baked into the line yet, and that creates value for Dallas’s WR corps. Dallas as a road dog near pick’em is the sharper side.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Dallas | Chicago | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.34 | 1.89 | Dallas |
| Success Rate | 47.8% | 42.1% | Dallas |
| Explosive Play Rate | 14.2% | 9.8% | Dallas |
| Drive Success Rate | 72.4% | 58.7% | Dallas |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 18.5% | 26.9% | Dallas |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 71.4% | 83.3% allowed | Dallas |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 23 | 1 per 19 | Chicago |
Dallas takes six of seven categories, and even the turnover edge for Chicago isn’t big enough to flip the script. Add in tempo — Dallas squeezes out an extra possession over 60 minutes — and the Cowboys’ ability to finish drives (87.5% inside the 5 vs Chicago’s 40% defensive stop rate) starts to look like the deciding factor.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
The Bears’ issues aren’t flukes. Personnel losses, schematic cracks, and a defense that can’t get off the field. Dallas is the more efficient team on both sides of the ball, and the red zone gap alone projects to a touchdown swing. Prescott behind a clean pocket against a secondary down its best cover man? That’s an edge worth betting. The total feels a half-point too high, especially with both teams more likely to trade touchdowns for field goals, keeping the score under control.
Prediction
Dallas Cowboys 27, Chicago Bears 21
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Dallas Cowboys +1 (-105) — Efficiency gap plus injury value make them the sharper side.
- ⭐⭐ Under 50.5 (-110) — Market shading too high given red zone profile and drive efficiency.
- ⭐ CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD (-125) — Prime matchup upgrade with Johnson out, high red zone target share.
Game Flow Projection: Dallas wins the possession battle (32:15 to 27:45), finishes 4-of-5 in the red zone, while holding Chicago to 2-of-4. That’s the difference between a one-score nail-biter and a cover.
