Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions – Week 14 NFL Picks & Predictions
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Odds: Detroit Lions -3 | Total: 54
The Rundown
It’s officially crunch time in the NFC, and this matchup sits right in the middle of a playoff picture that’s tighter than we’ve seen in years. Five divisions are separated by a game or less, including the NFC North, where the 9–3 Chicago Bears lead the 8–3–1 Green Bay Packers, with the 7–5 Detroit Lions suddenly playing catch-up after back-to-back gut punches.
Detroit’s NFC North odds have cratered to around +950 and they’re now a slight underdog just to make the playoffs. This doesn’t mathematically become an elimination game, but lose here and their postseason path starts needing help from everyone else’s schedule.
Meanwhile, Dallas walks in smoking hot with three straight wins, including the first team in NFL history to beat both of the prior season’s Super Bowl teams in a five-day span. They dug out of a 21–0 hole against Philadelphia and then outlasted Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City on Thanksgiving. Right now, the Cowboys are the team nobody is thrilled to see across the bracket.
But the real headline is simple: what version of Amon-Ra St. Brown are we getting, if any?
The Lions are already without tight end Sam LaPorta for the season. St. Brown is dealing with a low-ankle sprain, missed practice early in the week, and is trying to push through it. That’s not just “one guy” for this offense.
With St. Brown on the field since 2021, Detroit ranks #1 in yards per play and #2 in offensive efficiency. Without him, those numbers slide to #25 in yards per play and #16 in offensive efficiency. You don’t just plug-and-play that production away on a short week against a defense that has quietly upgraded at every level.
Why Detroit Still Has a Path
This isn’t a write-off spot for Detroit. The Lions still match up well in the one area that travels regardless of who’s catching passes: the ground game.
Detroit averages 5.0 yards per rush and 138.1 rushing yards per game, both top-five marks in the league. Dallas, on the other hand, allows 4.7 yards per carry and over 120 rushing yards per game. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery give Detroit a legitimate path to control tempo, shorten the game, and keep their defense out of high-stress, short-field situations.
In the red zone, the Lions are still dangerous even when shorthanded. They punch in touchdowns on 65.22% of red-zone trips, while Dallas allows TDs at a 71.11% rate, one of the worst red-zone profiles in the league. If Detroit can lean on the run, avoid long-yardage downs, and let Jared Goff pick spots instead of forcing him into hero ball, the Lions can turn this into their kind of game.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: Dallas 29.3 (rank 2) vs Detroit 29.2 (rank 3)
- Yards Per Point (Off/Def): Dallas 13.44 / 13.20 vs Detroit 12.90 / 13.85
- Points Per Play: Dallas 0.451 vs Detroit 0.474
- Yards Per Play: Dallas 6.1 vs Detroit 6.1
- 3rd Down Conversion % (Off): Dallas 44.14% vs Detroit 38.67%
- Red Zone TD % (Off): Dallas 60.42% vs Detroit 65.22%
- Turnover Margin: Dallas -0.4 per game vs Detroit +0.4 per game
Even before you layer injuries on top, Detroit actually owns the slightly cleaner efficiency profile. Their yards per point and points per play numbers suggest a more sustainable offense over 11–12 drives, and the Lions have been better at turning red-zone trips into sevens instead of threes.
But Dallas has two levers Detroit can’t match right now:
- Quarterback + passing ceiling: elite completion rate, top-tier passing yardage, and better third-down answers when the play breaks.
- Defensive trajectory: adding Quinnen Williams, Logan Wilson, more speed at the second level, and improving coverage has turned a liability unit into a problem unit just in time for December.
When you then remove LaPorta from the offense and downgrade St. Brown with a low-ankle sprain, Detroit goes from “top-three attack” to something much closer to “run-heavy, efficiency-dependent, and thin on answers if they fall behind script.”
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The market opened Detroit -3 with a total of 54, and both numbers have held. Dallas ripping off wins against Philly and Kansas City didn’t shove this through a key number, which tells you bettors respect Detroit’s home field and overall efficiency profile.
The number at -3 is also an accounting of injury risk on the Detroit side. Right now, the line reads like the market is pricing in St. Brown as active but limited and LaPorta out. Any late news that ARSB can’t go at all probably kicks this down toward pick’em or Cowboys -1. Any sign he’s healthier than expected, and -3 might briefly flash -3.5.
The total at 54 reflects two offenses ranked top three in scoring, but there’s a very real chance this plays a touch more methodical than the number suggests. Detroit leaning on the run, shorter throws, and tempo control isn’t great for pure shootout math.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Cowboys | Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 29.3 | 29.2 | Even |
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 13.44 | 12.90 | Detroit |
| Points Per Play | 0.451 | 0.474 | Detroit |
| Yards Per Play | 6.1 | 6.1 | Even |
| 3rd Down Conversion % (Offense) | 44.14% | 38.67% | Dallas |
| Red Zone TD Scoring % (Offense) | 60.42% | 65.22% | Detroit |
| Turnover Margin / Game | -0.4 | +0.4 | Detroit |
The grid shows why this line is sitting right at Lions -3 instead of drifting toward a full fade or a full Lions steam.
Detroit wins the categories that scale out over a 60-minute game — yards per point, points per play, red-zone TD rate, turnover margin. Those are the levers you want in a lower-possession, run-heavy script.
Dallas, however, owns the more reliable conversion tool: third down offense, paired with a passing ceiling that’s simply higher than what Detroit can generate if St. Brown is at less than full speed and LaPorta is watching from the sideline.
The Bottom Line & Prediction
The playoff context matters. Detroit is hanging onto realistic division hopes by a thread and is now an underdog just to make the tournament. Dallas is rolling, but the market hasn’t overreacted — it’s still giving full respect to Ford Field and the Lions’ underlying metrics.
The problem is that the version of Detroit we’ve been grading all season included a healthy Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Take one out and limit the other and the Lions lose their margin for error in high-leverage situations — especially on third down and in the red zone.
Dallas shows up with momentum, better health in their primary playmakers, and a defense that no longer has to apologize for its early-season form. That doesn’t guarantee a blowout, but it does tilt the ATS math toward the dog catching a field goal.
Prediction
Dallas Cowboys 27, Detroit Lions 23
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Cowboys +3 (-110) — Healthier skill group and surging defense catching a full field goal.
- ⭐⭐ Under 54 (-110) — Detroit leans run-heavy; missing pass-catchers drag pace and explosiveness down.
- ⭐ Detroit 1st Half Team Total Under 13.5 — Early script likely conservative while they test what St. Brown can give them.
Game Flow Projection: Detroit opens trying to pound Gibbs and Montgomery, shorten the game, and feel out ARSB’s ankle. They move the ball but stall more often than usual in scoring range without LaPorta as a safety blanket. Dallas counters with a more balanced approach, leaning on an upgraded defense to steal a couple of short fields. The Cowboys gradually nudge in front, and Detroit’s limited pass-game options make a full comeback harder than the spread suggests.
