Detroit at Atlanta NFL Preseason Prediction
“I heard that teams that played in the Hall of Fame game have an edge over teams that are playing their first game in week one of the preseason.
No doubt you’ve heard it, too.
So what’s the story? Is it true or not?”
That quote is from an article posted here at PredictEm dated August 9, 2024.
To answer the question, “Is it true or not?” I did a 5-year look back. With the results of last year’s game, I now have 6 years’ worth of data to look at for Week One preseason records for a team that played the previous week in the Hall of Fame game:
- SU 6-6
- ATS 6-6
- Favs 3-3
- Dogs 3-3
- Ov/Un 7-5
I think we can accurately say it’s a myth that teams who already have one game under their belt have an advantage over teams playing their first game of the preseason.
While looking at those stats last season, I did notice that Hall of Fame teams playing their second games average 23 PPG on offense.
Maybe it does help the offenses to have one game under their belt?
Since most preseason totals are in the 18-19 point range, an average score of 23 PPG sounds good for a possible play on the Over for team totals, yes?
No.
When I looked closer I found that the numbers were skewed because five teams scored a lot of points which made up for five teams that didn’t – only five of the 10 teams actually scored more than 20 points.
Now we can add last year’s Hall of Fame teams, Houston and Chicago, into the mix. In their second preseason game Houston beat Pittsburgh 20-12 as three-point favorites and Chicago beat Buffalo 33-6 as three point Dogs.
Both teams scored 20 or higher.
So now, of the 12 teams in this data sample, seven scored 20 or more points.
That’s a 58% edge, and what do I always say?
Anything over 58% is good enough to get my money!
So what do we have this week for team totals?
The team total for the Chargers is 17′.
That’s 17 points fewer than the 34 they scored last week.
The team total for the Lions is 17′.
That’s 10′ more than they scored last week.
On paper, it looks like the Chargers have the easier task if you’re looking at playing the Over. They only need to score half as many points as they scored last week, while the Lions need to score more than twice as many.
But you have to factor in the main reason for last week’s scoring differential – the Chargers benefited from FIVE Detroit turnovers.
You can’t count on that happening again this week.
As a matter of fact, you CAN count on it NOT happening.
So don’t use last week’s scores as an indicator of this week’s scores.
Jim Harbaugh and Dan Campbell are distinct personalities with two very distinct and diverse styles of play.
Jim’s a nose-to-the-grindstone, rely on defense and the running game, conservative type of guy.
Dan is a risk taker, “the lone crap shooter” as Mick would say, always ready and MORE than willing to roll the Tumbling Dice.
Last week’s 34 points from the Chargers was unexpected. I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of it this week. Last year in the preseason, Harbaugh’s offense put up three points in week one, nine points in week two, and 26 points in the final game of the preseason. The first two weeks are more indicative of Harbaugh in the preseason’s evaluate-the-talent situation.
On the other hand, Campbell’s the kind of guy who wants to win every game, preseason or not. And I imagine he wasn’t very fun to be around this week after his team only put up seven points in their first game (not to mention that FIVE turnovers thing.)
In the preseason last year they scored three points, 24 points and 24 points.
In their four years under Campbell they average 18.8 PPG on offense in the preseason.
I like the fact that Detroit only scored once in their first preseason game this year, just like they only scored once in their first preseason game last year.
And I expect their week two results this season to be more in line with week two of last season than their performance in last week’s Hall of Fame game.
The main reason for the Lions only putting up one score last week was the turnovers.
An NFL team averages 10-12 possessions per game. It’s difficult to put points on the board when you turn the ball over for half of your possessions.
And making matters worse – they had zero takeaways. They may not win the turnover battle this week but they’re not going to lose it 5-0 so it’s not a stretch to expect a better performance from their offense in their second game.
But can they get the 18 points I need for a win this week? Let’s look at Detroit’s opponent in the game, the Atlanta Falcons.
In their first year under new head coach Raheem Morris, they were 0-3 in the preseason. It’s a small data sample and too early to tell, but you have to put a check mark next to Morris’ name as one of those coaches who may not care about winning in the preseason, so be careful if you’re thinking of laying points in any of their games.
In their three losses last season, they gave up 20, 13, and 31 points for an average of 21 PPG.
Summary (What Do We Have)
- A Detroit team that averages 19 PPG on offense in the preseason with Campbell at the helm.
- An Atlanta team that surrenders 21 PPG on defense with Morris at the helm.
- A pissed off Campbell and an offense that doesn’t want to feel his wrath two weeks in a row.
- A team total of 17′ on Detroit, below their average PPG on offense, and below Atlanta’s average PPG on defense.
B
ut mainly what I have is a desire for action.
It’s been a long time since I’ve enjoyed putting money on a football game and yelling at my TV (no, UFL and CFL do NOT count.)
The game is televised, I’m going to watch, and I need something to root for.
Let’s be honest, in ANY game you can come up with stats to support a play on either the Fav, the Dog, the Over, or the Under.
And it’s even more of a crapshoot in the preseason because, well, BECAUSE IT’S THE PRESEASON.
Nobody knows what’s going to happen.
Even past history doesn’t really give you an edge because coaches may have changed their philosophy based on what they’ve learned in previous preseasons.
Best you can do is rely on some averages and hope for a little luck.
And that’s what I’m doing this week.
When to Buy Recommendation:
The better books are offering a variety of lines you can choose from for team totals. The weaker books don’t offer any lines on preseason team totals (pussy boys.)
The standard number is 17′, -110.
You can get it at 16′ but you have to pay 50 cents extra juice, and I don’t even do that in the regular season, I’m sure as hell not going to do it in the preseason.
Books don’t let you buy the hook off, so that’s not an option, which sucks because 17 is a key number for a team total, it’s two titties and a field goal (I’m using my phone’s microphone to record/write this article. I said “two TD’s” but spell check auto corrected it and it came out as, well, you saw it. I should probably go back and delete it, but I think it’s funny.)
NFL teams don’t usually land on 18, so the hook on the 17 looms large. It means I’ll need Detroit to get to 20 to get me a win. After last week’s performance, I expect we’ll see a few more points from the Lions this week. Hopefully more than 17′.
My play:
The Campbell’s Ov 17′
Be sure to bookmark our main free picks page every week, where professional handicappers Kevin West and Rich Crew will be giving out winning picks!
