Dolphins vs Bills Preview: Week 3 Thursday Night Football Showdown
Opening Setup
Here’s what’s interesting about Thursday Night Football in Week 3 — we’ve got a classic AFC East beatdown brewing in Buffalo. The Miami Dolphins (0-2) are heading into hostile territory to face the red-hot Buffalo Bills (2-0), and this spread has grown to historic proportions. We’re looking at Buffalo as 12-point home favorites, which would make them the biggest favorite of the 2025 NFL season if it holds.
For newer bettors, let me break this down simply: when a team is favored by double digits, it means the oddsmakers think they’re significantly better. But here’s the crazy part — big spreads like this can actually create value on the underdog because covering 12 points is never easy in the NFL, even against a struggling team.
The storyline here is Buffalo’s complete dominance over Miami. Josh Allen and the Bills have won six straight meetings and 13 of the last 14 matchups. But divisional games on short weeks can get weird, and that’s exactly what smart bettors are watching for.
Game Details Box
Date: Thursday, September 18
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo
TV: Prime Video
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Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Buffalo Bills -12 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 50 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills -850 / Miami Dolphins +550 | – |
Quick Translation: Buffalo needs to win by more than 12 points to cover the spread. The total means you’re betting whether both teams combine for more or less than 50 points. The moneyline shows Buffalo is heavily favored — you’d risk $850 to win $100 on Buffalo, while $100 on Miami wins you $550.
Line Movement Analysis
This line has been fascinating to watch. Buffalo opened around 8.5 points and has steadily climbed to 12, which tells us the public money is hammering the Bills. When you see line movement like this — where the favorite keeps getting more expensive — it usually means casual bettors are piling on the obvious choice. Sharp money often looks for spots like this where the public has pushed a line too far. The crazy part is we’re seeing reverse line movement in some spots where the line moved toward Buffalo despite more bets coming in on Miami, which suggests the bigger money is on the Bills.
Key Matchups
The most critical matchup is Buffalo’s pass rush against Miami’s patchwork offensive line. The Dolphins have already lost both James Daniels and Austin Jackson to IR, forcing them to start Kion Smith at right guard and Larry Borom at right tackle. These guys got worked by the Patriots’ pass rush for five sacks last week.
Buffalo’s Joey Bosa has 2 forced fumbles in 2 games
Miami’s OL allowed 6 penalties last week, including 4 holding calls
Josh Allen averages 272.6 passing yards and 3 TDs per game vs Miami
Why Smart Bettors Like Buffalo
- Josh Allen’s Miami dominance — 13-2 record with 16:3 TD:INT ratio in last 6 games against them.
- Miami’s defensive collapse — Last in NFL allowing 75% scoring rate on opponent drives.
- Turnover machine — Bills have forced takeaways in 6 straight games, haven’t lost turnover battle in 24 games.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Miami Dolphins +12 — Let’s be realistic about what we’re seeing here. Yes, Buffalo is the better team, but 12 points in a divisional game on a short week is asking a lot. Miami showed life last week with 315 passing yards from Tua, and De’Von Achane can exploit Buffalo’s bottom-2 run defense. The Bills are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as double-digit favorites.
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Secondary Consideration: Under 50 points looks appealing with Miami’s offensive line struggles and the short week preparation time limiting both offenses.
What to Watch For
- Live betting opportunities if Miami keeps it close early
- Josh Allen’s nose injury status from Sunday’s game
- Buffalo’s tendency to play down to competition at home vs Miami
- Weather conditions affecting the over/under
Bottom Line Summary
The core betting logic here is simple — the market has overreacted to Miami’s slow start and Buffalo’s dominance. While the Bills should win this game, asking them to cover 12 points against a divisional rival that knows their system is a tall order. The public money has inflated this line beyond where it should be.
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 27, Miami Dolphins 20.
