Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Chargers – Week 14 NFL Picks & Predictions
Monday Night Football heads to SoFi Stadium as the Philadelphia Eagles take on a banged-up Los Angeles Chargers squad. Expert handicapper Rich Crew breaks down why Justin Herbert’s injury and Philadelphia’s offensive slump create the perfect storm for a low-scoring grinder.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Monday, December 8, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Odds: Philadelphia Eagles -2 | Total: 41.5
Eagles vs Chargers Betting Analysis: Why the Under Hits
This line didn’t wander much — opened around 42, dipped to 41.5, and the market’s telling you exactly what it sees: two teams built to strangle possessions, not light up scoreboards.
Philadelphia’s offense has fallen off a cliff. They’re averaging 15.5 points over their last four games, and it’s not just bad luck — Lane Johnson’s out for a third straight game, Jalen Hurts is completing passes at a 55.9% clip in his last outing, and they’ve failed to crack 100 rushing yards seven times this season. Saquon Barkley’s averaging 3.7 yards per carry, ranking 38th in the league. This isn’t the unit that punched teams in the mouth earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are playing with a compromised quarterback. Justin Herbert broke his non-throwing hand last week, played three quarters in a hard cast, and now faces an Eagles defense that’s allowing just 168.3 pass yards per game (#2 in the NFL). LA’s been living in shotgun to protect Herbert’s hand, which means the playbook’s been shredded. Greg Roman admitted as much — “a lot of what we practiced went out the window.”
Chargers Defense vs Eagles Passing Attack: A Mismatch
The numbers scream grind. Chargers control time of possession at 54.7% (2nd in NFL), which means fewer drives for both sides. Philadelphia’s averaging just 28.5 pass attempts per game (#29) — they don’t chuck it around even when healthy. Both defenses rank top-10 in opponent points per play. And when these offenses do move the ball, they’re settling for field goals more than finishing drives.
Chargers’ defense is suffocating through the air: 6.4 yards per pass allowed (#5) and a 61.32% completion rate (#5). Philly’s pass protection is already shaky with Johnson out, and the Eagles are sacked on 7.32% of dropbacks. LA gets home on 8.88% of opponent dropbacks (#4), so expect Hurts under duress all night.
Key Statistical Matchups: Eagles vs Chargers Total
| Metric | Philadelphia | LA Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game (Last 4) | 15.5 | 20.7 (Last 3) | Both Struggling |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 218.3 (#18) | 168.3 (#2) | Chargers |
| Opponent Completion % | 56.42% (#1) | 61.32% (#5) | Eagles |
| Time of Possession | 49.95% | 54.70% (#2) | Chargers |
| Sack Rate Generated | 8.88% (#4) | 5.49% (#25) | Chargers |
| Recent O/U Trend | 4-0 Under | 2-1 Under (Last 3) | Under |
Justin Herbert Injury Impact on Chargers Offense
Herbert’s fractured hand changes everything. He can’t take snaps under center, eliminating play-action and limiting the offense to predictable shotgun formations. Against an Eagles defense that generates pressure on 8.88% of dropbacks, this is a nightmare matchup. Herbert’s already being sacked at an 8.91% rate (#26) — add the injury and shotgun telegraph, and you’re looking at a conservative game plan focused on clock management, not explosive plays.
Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Struggles Without Lane Johnson
Philadelphia’s last four games? All Unders. They’ve scored 10, 16, 21, and 15 points. The offensive line is compromised without Johnson, Barkley can’t find running lanes (3.7 YPC), and Hurts is forcing passes into tight windows. Against a Chargers secondary allowing just 6.4 yards per pass attempt, this offense has no path to 24+ points.
The Chargers just held the Raiders to 14 in a game where LA only managed 31 themselves — and that was at home, coming off a bye, against a 2-10 team. If they couldn’t explode against Vegas, they’re not lighting up a top-10 Eagles defense on a short week with a banged-up quarterback.
Monday Night Football Betting Pick: Eagles vs Chargers Under
Low tempo. Limited playbooks. Defenses that get after the passer. Two offenses that can’t stay on schedule. The market opened this at 42 and it’s dropping for a reason.
Best Bet
⭐⭐⭐ Under 41.5 (-110)
Prediction
Philadelphia 20, LA Chargers 17
Game Flow Projection: Chargers lean on clock control and field position. Eagles try to establish Barkley early, fail, and fall into obvious passing situations with a banged-up line. Herbert manages the game without taking chances. Final score lands somewhere in the 20-17, 21-17 range — either way, we’re cashing tickets in the third quarter.
