Philadelphia and Kansas City square off in a Super Bowl rematch, with the betting market shifting toward the Eagles despite Arrowhead’s home-field edge.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Odds: Philadelphia Eagles -1 to -1.5 | Total: 46.5-47
The Rundown
This Super Bowl LIX rematch carries significant weight after the Eagles defeated Kansas City 40-22 on February 9, 2025, capturing their second franchise championship. The betting market has shifted to favor Philadelphia as road favorites, with current lines showing Eagles -1 to -1.5. The Chiefs enter 0-1 after a 27-21 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil, while Philadelphia is 1-0 following a 24-20 victory over Dallas. Kansas City’s receiver room faces challenges with Xavier Worthy listed as doubtful with a dislocated shoulder and Rashee Rice serving a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.
Current Form Analysis
Philadelphia’s Week 1 Performance:
- Defeated Dallas Cowboys 24-20 at home
- Generated 302 total yards (158 rushing, 144 passing)
- Controlled time of possession at 58.1%
- Converted 61.54% of third downs (8 of 13)
- Perfect red zone efficiency (100% touchdown rate)
Kansas City’s Week 1 Struggles:
- Lost to Los Angeles Chargers 27-21 in Brazil
- Managed 347 total yards (98 rushing, 249 passing)
- Held possession for only 45.44% of game time
- Converted just 35.71% of third downs (5 of 14)
- Red zone struggles with 33.33% touchdown rate (1 of 3)
Key Statistical Comparisons
Based on Week 1 performance data:
Offensive Efficiency:
- Points Per Game: Philadelphia 24.0 vs Kansas City 21.0
- Yards Per Play: Kansas City 6.0 vs Philadelphia 4.9
- Time of Possession: Philadelphia 58.1% vs Kansas City 45.44%
- Third Down Conversion: Philadelphia 61.54% vs Kansas City 35.71%
Defensive Performance:
- Points Allowed: Philadelphia 20.0 vs Kansas City 27.0
- Opponent Yards Per Play: Philadelphia 5.5 vs Kansas City 6.4
- Turnover Differential: Philadelphia +1.0 vs Kansas City 0.0
Injury Report
Philadelphia Eagles Injuries:
| Player | Position | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Williams | OT | Out | Shoulder |
| D. Goedert | TE | Out | Knee |
| W. Shipley | RB | Out | Obliques |
| T. McKee | QB | Questionable | Thumb |
| L. Dickerson | OG | Injured | Back |
| J. Hunt | LB | Injured | Hip |
Kansas City Chiefs Injuries:
| Player | Position | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Royals | WR | Out | Knee |
| X. Worthy | WR | Doubtful | Shoulder |
| T. Smith | OG | Injured | Knee |
| D. Tranquill | LB | Injured | Knee |
| N. Bolton | LB | Injured | Biceps |
| H. Brown | WR | Injured | Ankle |
| C. Conner | CB | Injured | Wrist |
| A. Gillotte | DL | Injured | Elbow |
| O. Norman-Lott | DL | Injured | Ankle |
| J. Taylor | OT | Injured | Knee |
Personnel Situations
Kansas City Suspension/Injury Impact:
- WR Rashee Rice: Suspended six games (eligible to return Week 7)
- WR Xavier Worthy: Doubtful with dislocated shoulder
- WR Jalen Royals: Out with knee injury
- WR Hollywood Brown: Injured (ankle)
- Primary healthy receivers: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce
Philadelphia Impact Players:
- TE Dallas Goedert: Out with knee injury (significant offensive weapon)
- OT Cam Williams: Out with shoulder injury
- RB Will Shipley: Out with oblique injury
- Core offensive players (Hurts, Barkley, Brown, Smith) healthy
Historical Context
Recent Head-to-Head Results:
- February 9, 2025 (Super Bowl LIX): Eagles 40, Chiefs 22
- November 20, 2023: Eagles 21, Chiefs 17 (at Kansas City)
- February 12, 2023 (Super Bowl LVII): Chiefs 38, Eagles 35
Market Analysis
Current betting lines across major sportsbooks show:
- Spread: Eagles -1 to -1.5
- Total: 46.5 to 47 points
- Moneyline: Eagles approximately -110 to -115
The line movement from an apparent Chiefs home favorite to Eagles road favorite reflects market assessment of Week 1 performances and personnel situations.
Key Factors
Philadelphia Advantages:
- Superior third-down conversion rate (61.54% vs 35.71%)
- Better time of possession control (58.1% vs 45.44%)
- Perfect red zone efficiency in Week 1 (100% vs 33.33%)
- Key offensive weapons (Hurts, Barkley, Brown, Smith) healthy
- Better defensive performance (allowed 20.0 PPG vs 27.0 PPG)
Kansas City Challenges:
- Severely depleted receiver corps (Rice suspended, Worthy doubtful, Royals out)
- Poor third-down conversion rate in Week 1 (35.71%)
- Defensive struggles (allowed 6.4 yards per play vs 5.5)
- Multiple injury concerns across offensive and defensive units
- Coming off disappointing season opener loss
Bottom Line Assessment
Philadelphia enters with significant advantages in both health and recent performance. The Eagles’ superior situational football metrics from Week 1, combined with Kansas City’s extensive injury list and suspension issues, create a compelling case for the road favorites. Kansas City’s receiver depth is particularly concerning, with their top three options either suspended, doubtful, or injured. Philadelphia’s ability to control possession and convert in crucial situations, demonstrated in their Week 1 victory, should serve them well in this hostile environment.
Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles 28, Kansas City Chiefs 17
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Philadelphia Eagles -1 (-115) — Superior efficiency metrics across all categories provide clear edge.
- ⭐⭐ Under 47 Total Points (-105) — Kansas City’s offensive limitations and pace control by Philadelphia limit possessions.
- ⭐ Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-152) — Red zone efficiency advantage and goal-line carries create high probability.
Game Flow Projection: Philadelphia establishes early control through efficient drives and time of possession advantages. Kansas City’s limited receiver options struggle against Philadelphia’s secondary, leading to extended drives that consume clock. The Eagles need to maintain their 48% success rate and limit Kansas City to under 45% third-down conversions to cover. With projected 11-12 total possessions, Philadelphia’s efficiency edges translate to a two-possession victory margin.
