Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants – Week 6 NFL Picks
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Thursday, October 10, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Odds: Philadelphia Eagles -7 | Total: 41.5
The Rundown
The market pushed Philadelphia from -6.5 through the key number of seven early in the week, which tells you sharp bettors wasted no time backing the better roster. Public money tends to chase underdogs in divisional primetime games, but this move wasn’t about hype—it was about numbers. The total holding firm at 41.5 makes sense given the Giants’ offensive limitations and the Eagles’ tendency to shorten games once they’ve built a lead.
The efficiency gap here is massive. Philadelphia needs just 51 yards to produce a point, while New York needs nearly 80. That difference compounds fast over four quarters. Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has flashed talent, but his 34% success rate last week against New Orleans shows how steep the learning curve is. Philadelphia ranks third in the league in points per drive at 2.8, while the Giants sit near the bottom at 1.6. That’s the kind of split that defines spreads like this one.
Why Philadelphia Has the Edge
Explosiveness and balance—two things the Giants don’t have. The Eagles create plays of 20+ yards on nearly 12% of snaps, double New York’s rate. The Giants’ defense has been shredded on the ground, giving up 6.1 yards per carry—the worst mark in football. That’s a brutal matchup on a short week against an offense that can run it behind one of the best lines in the league. Add in a motivated Saquon Barkley returning to face his old team, and you’ve got an emotional and statistical edge all in one package.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Eagles 2.8 (3rd) | Giants 1.6 (28th)
- Yards Per Play: Eagles 6.2 | Giants 4.8
- Success Rate: Eagles 47.3% | Giants 39.1%
- Third Down Conversion: Eagles 44.7% | Giants 31.2%
- Red Zone TD Rate: Eagles 71.4% | Giants 42.9%
- Explosive Play Rate: Eagles 11.8% | Giants 6.2%
The Eagles simply do everything more efficiently. They move the chains, finish drives, and avoid three-and-outs. The Giants, meanwhile, punt after nearly half of their possessions. That’s not just bad—that’s game-script death against a team like Philadelphia that dominates time of possession and plays downhill once it gets ahead.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
Crossing from -6.5 to -7 is no small thing in the NFL, and the handle split shows why—67% of the money is on Philadelphia, but only 52% of the tickets. That’s professional money, not public noise. The total dipped slightly from 42 to 41.5, which aligns with New York’s offensive profile under Dart. On a short week, execution and depth matter more than creativity, and that’s another box checked for Philadelphia.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Philadelphia | New York | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.8 | 1.6 | Philadelphia |
| Success Rate | 47.3% | 39.1% | Philadelphia |
| Explosive Play Rate | 11.8% | 6.2% | Philadelphia |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 21.8% | 48.6% | Philadelphia |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 71.4% | 42.9% | Philadelphia |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 22.4 | 1 per 18.7 | Philadelphia |
Even tempo favors the Eagles. They snap it every 27.8 seconds compared to New York’s 29.4, translating to two or three extra drives across the game. With their third-down and red zone efficiency, that’s plenty of time to stretch a one-score margin into a comfortable cover.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
This one checks all the boxes for a bounce-back spot. Philadelphia’s metrics still say elite team; New York’s say rebuilding project. The Eagles control every category that matters—yards per play, drive success, turnover margin, and finishing ability. The Giants are outmatched on the line of scrimmage and don’t have the passing rhythm to compensate. Thursday night games reward stability, and Philadelphia’s the steadier, more complete group.
Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles 28, New York Giants 16
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-115) — The efficiency and matchup edges justify laying the number.
- ⭐⭐ Under 41.5 (-110) — The Giants can’t score enough to push this total over.
- ⭐ Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-176) — Motivation meets opportunity against the league’s worst run defense.
Game Flow Projection: Expect Philadelphia to set the tone early with ball control and methodical drives. The Giants will hang around with effort, not output. Once the Eagles get rolling on the ground, this becomes a possession game—and the better team wins those more often than not.
KEY ANGLE: Giants’ 6.1 YPC allowed meets Philadelphia’s elite offensive line and revenge-driven run game on a short week.
