Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Prediction and Analysis
Sunday, September 28th
Game time: 1 pm, EST
There are basically two ways to bet – you play ON something you like (a team, a trend, a stat, a handicapper) or play AGAINST something, Fading something you don’t like.
I much prefer Fading, and since statistics say that 98% of sports bettors lose, they should learn to embrace the Fade, too.
And I have a good Fade lined up for Sunday.
At least I think it’s a good one, you can never really tell with these things until the final second ticks off the game clock.
And sometimes even then you won’t know – see Denver at Indianapolis last week.
(Apparently, I’m not quite as over that loss as I thought I was.)
But I digress.
On to this week’s Fade.
Anyone familiar with my articles knows I have two different handicapping models I use to try and identify a game where the books made the wrong team the Favorite.
Thus far in the NFL both models look like good spots to Fade.
WF1 has a record of 1-2 on Hm teams.
WF2 has a record of 3-7 on Hm teams.
Not a lot of games qualified for WF1 but it’s at 67% for the Fade.
WF2 has a decent data sample of 10 games and is hitting at 70% for the Fade.
And BOTH models say the Panthers should be the Fav in their game against the Falcons.
I’d like to know the record for when I had matches between the two models last season (I’m pretty sure it was a losing record, good for a Fade), but I don’t have my data charts with me because I’m still on vacation. I’m in Laughlin right now, writing this while looking out over the Colorado River, where I’m going to be chasing stripers this weekend. (Laughlin is a weird little town, odd people, I feel like I landed in the middle of the Nick Cage film The Wicker Man.)
But I digress. Again.
There have been two games this year where both models had games that qualified as WF’s, the Jets in Week 1 and the Chiefs in Week 2.
New York squeezed by with a one-point ATS win.
KC lost by two points, ATS.
So the play has a record of 1-1.
Atlanta is off to a 1-1 start SU, and 1-1 ATS.
They lost by three points to a solid 2-0 Tampa Bay team at home in Atlanta in week 1, then came back to beat the Vikings on the road in Minnesota, 22-6, on Monday Night Football last week.
Carolina is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS.
They lost a road game at Jacksonville in week one, 26-10, then got beaten 27-22 at Arizona.
Aside from the records in my personal handicapping models, I have some standard stats I like in this one, too. Let’s look at some PF/PA numbers.
The Falcons have scored a total of 42 points and given up 29, for a +13 differential.
The Panthers have scored just 32 points and given up 53, for a -21 differential.
Factoring in averages, Atlanta scores 21 PPG and gives up just 14.5 for a +6.5 differential.
Carolina scores just 16 PPG and surrenders 26′, for a -10 differential.
The Panthers are ranked near the bottom of the league for rushing defense, allowing 141 per game.
This is not good news for Carolina fans with Atlanta’s Duo of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson coming to town.
The Falcons are ranked 4th in the league for rushing yards, the two backs combining for 143.5 per game, and are fresh off a combined 219 yards last week.
And the problem is further exacerbated (exacerbated???!! There’s one you don’t get to use too often) by the absence of the Panthers’ best defender against the run, Tershawn Wharton, who is not expected to play on Sunday due to a hamstring injury.
Carolina also lost two starters from the offensive line last week, including center Austin Corbett.
I like playing against teams using a backup center; they’re usually good for at least one bad snap that could lead to a turnover.
The only negative I see on this ‘cap is the fact that the Panthers swept the Falcons last season, which looks even worse when you realize that Carolina only won five games all year long. But as the saying goes, “That was then, this is now.”
Falcon head coach Raheem Morris won’t lose his third contest against Panthers’ head coach Canales.
Now I just need him to cover the spread.
When to Buy Recommendation
The board is split right now between -5 and -5′, but our sponsor Bovada must have taken big bucks on Carolina because they have it right now at Atlanta -4′, -110.
And that’s what I grabbed.
NFL Record: 1-1
