Giants vs Broncos Preview: Week 7 Upset Special in Denver
Can the Giants pull off another surprise in Denver? With Jaxson Dart giving New York’s offense a spark and the Broncos showing cracks after their London trip, this Week 7 matchup might be closer than oddsmakers think.
Opening Setup
Here’s what’s interesting about this Week 7 matchup — the New York Giants just pulled off a stunning 34-17 upset over the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, giving them extra rest while Denver had to fly back from London after a narrow 13-11 win over the Jets. For new bettors, this is exactly the kind of spot where sharp money often goes against public perception.
The Giants are riding high with rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, who’s looked surprisingly poised in his three starts. Meanwhile, Bo Nix and the Broncos offense managed just 13 points against the Jets, raising questions about whether their early-season momentum is stalling. Denver’s defense remains elite, but their offense has been inconsistent enough to keep this game competitive.
The line opened at Broncos -6 but has moved to -7, suggesting some public money is backing the home favorite. However, the total has dropped from 42 to 40.5, which tells us the sharp money expects a lower-scoring affair than the market initially projected.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, October 19
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
TV: CBS
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Broncos -7 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 40.5 | O(-105)/U(-115) |
| Moneyline | Broncos -390 / Giants +295 | – |
Quick Translation: Denver needs to win by 8+ points to cover the spread. The total means you’re betting whether both teams combine for more or less than 40.5 points. The moneyline shows Denver is heavily favored — you’d need to bet $390 to win $100 on the Broncos, while $100 on the Giants pays $295.
Line Movement Analysis
The line opened at Broncos -6 but moved to -7, which typically indicates public money backing the favorite. However, the under juice getting heavier (from -110 to -115) suggests sharp money expects fewer points than originally projected. This is called “reverse line movement” — when the line moves against the public betting percentage. When you see the total drop while under juice increases, it usually means professional bettors are hammering the under, even though casual fans might expect a higher-scoring game.
Key Matchups
The critical battle is Denver’s pass rush versus New York’s protection. The Broncos have been exceptional at getting to the quarterback this season, with a 13.70% sack rate that ranks among the league leaders. However, the Giants have allowed Dart to be mobile, and he’s rushed for 54, 55, and 58 yards in his three starts.
Denver’s defense ranks 2nd in total defense (254.2 yards allowed) and 3rd in passing defense (165.2 YPG), but they’ve struggled with mobile quarterbacks. The Giants’ rushing attack averages 126.2 yards per game (9th in NFL), led by Cam Skattebo, who could exploit Denver’s tendency to over-pursue the pass rush.
Why Smart Bettors Like New York
- Rest Advantage — Giants played Thursday, giving them 10 days of preparation while Denver flew back from London.
- Dart’s Mobility — Young quarterback has shown ability to escape pressure and create with his legs against good defenses, consistently hitting 50+ rushing yards per game.
- Denver’s Offensive Struggles — Broncos managed just 13 points vs the Jets in London and have failed to score more than 21 points in four of their last five games.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Giants +7 (-110) — This line feels inflated based on Denver’s reputation rather than recent performance. The Broncos offense has been pedestrian, and the Giants have the rest advantage plus a mobile quarterback who can extend plays against an aggressive pass rush. Dart’s ability to consistently produce 50+ rushing yards per game is exactly the type of QB profile that exploits Denver’s aggressive defensive scheme.
Secondary Consideration: Under 40.5 — Both defenses have been solid, and Denver’s offensive struggles suggest this stays lower than the market expects. The sharp money movement on the total supports this angle.
What to Watch For
- Live betting opportunities if Giants fall behind early — their comeback ability has been undervalued
- Jaxson Dart rushing props — he’s consistently hit 50+ yards rushing in his starts
- Denver’s first-quarter performance — they’ve been slow starters lately
- Weather conditions at altitude — could affect both passing games
Bottom Line Summary
The market is overvaluing Denver based on their defensive reputation while underestimating a Giants team with extra rest and a quarterback who fits the style to exploit the Broncos’ aggressive defense. Denver’s offense hasn’t shown they can consistently put games away, making this a one-possession game throughout.
Final Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Giants 17.
