New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles – Pick and Prediction

By RBD – Former Sportsbook Manager & NFL Betting Analyst

I’m looking at three reasons why I think it’s a good week to bet against the Giants.

Reason Number One

“The odds are that the team who will win SU will also cover ATS.”

I don’t know who to attribute that old adage to, and I don’t even know if it’s correct. But I hope it is because Philadelphia’s going to win this game, and I bet on them so I need them to cover, too.

The game is being played in Philadelphia, and the Giants are winless on the road at 0-4, while the Eagles have won 67% of their home games this season. (Yes, they’re only 2-1, but 67% sounds better, and I’m trying to make a case to bet on Philly!)

How do I know the Eagles are going to win?

The answer is…

Reason Number Two

Forgive me for using the source of the following quote (I’m embarrassed myself), but if the shoe fits…

“Depression doesn’t take away your talents, it just makes them harder to find.” – Lady Gaga

And make no doubt about it, the Giants ARE depressed this week after the Denver loss — one of the most embarrassing performances in NFL history.

Overcoming a tough loss is a difficult situation for all teams, all sports, at all levels.

For example, a college football team blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter is unusual, but hey, it’s the kids — crazy things happen.

But in the pros????

Going into the fourth quarter with a 19-0 lead only to end up losing is a rarity in the NFL.

Holding an opponent scoreless for three quarters and then allowing them to score 33 points in the fourth quarter is beyond a rarity — it’s a never-happened-before and probably-will-never-happen-again kind of thing.

This is the stuff that nightmares are made of.

This is the kind of game that will haunt the Giants’ sleep for months to come.

So how well do you think they slept this week while it’s still fresh in their minds?

I’m guessing not very well.

Actually, I’m not guessing — I know it.

They’ve been reliving that game, play by play, moment by moment, over and over again in their heads.

Their minds are pervaded with it, which means they’re not focused on the task at hand — winning their next game. And to win in the NFL, you need to be totally, laser-like focused on your next opponent.

One of my favorite handicapping angles isn’t a mathematical trend or situational spot/handicapping model that I have. It’s betting against teams with locker room distractions or dysfunction, such as head-coach-about-to-be-fired rumors, team-member-arrested for (fill in the blank: gun possession, domestic violence, drugs, etc.), or a historical blunder that caused you to lose your last game — like a Pisarcik fumble (a relevant Giants-Eagles reference right there) or suffering through a long week of people laughing at you and your 33-point fourth-quarter meltdown!

After last week’s embarrassment, the Giants can’t help but be down.

Waaaay down. And it’s going to be very difficult for them to get back up for this game.

The first mistake they make will open the floodgates of self-doubt.

The first score they give up will ignite a serious case of déjà vu.

Regardless of what they’re saying publicly about the loss to the Broncos, the G-Boys are full of self-doubt. And self-loathing.

And the finger-pointing/blame game going on behind the scenes will only serve to take focus away from the task at hand — beating the Eagles.

It would take some serious senior leadership to bring a team back from the bottom of the abyss where the Giants’ spirits reside after last week’s debacle.

And they’re led by a rookie QB.

‘Nuff said.

Reason Number Three

“The best revenge is massive success.”
– Frank Sinatra

Two weeks ago, a complacent Eagles team arrived at the Meadowlands as favorites of a little over a touchdown. They not only lost straight up, but the Giants doubled them up, scoring 34 to the Eagles’ 17.

You think there’s any chance the Eagles are going to be looking past the Giants and taking them lightly this week? You think they don’t have revenge on their mind?

Not a chance.

I don’t need the Eagles’ success to be “massive.” I just need it to be by more than a touchdown.

Last year, the Eagles swept the Giants.

The Giants will not return the favor and sweep the Eagles this year.

The Eagles WILL win, so the only question is will they cover the spread?

My gut feel says “yes.”

In their four losses, the Giants’ average margin of defeat is 7.7 points — just about what I need to cover in this one.

They got beat by 15 points at Washington and 12 points at New Orleans, so betting them to lose by 7 or more in Philadelphia isn’t much of a stretch.

But is it a stretch asking Philly to win by more than 7?

Last season, the Eagles had six double-digit wins.

This year, their largest margin of victory is 7.

After putting up 17 points in two straight games, Philadelphia’s offense found their footing again last week and put up 28 at Minnesota.

Last season, the two Philadelphia wins over New York came by a combined score of 48-16.

That’s a 16-point average margin of victory — more than double what I need in this one.

In summary, we have an “up” Eagles team hosting a “down” Giants team on Sunday.

In life, you’re not supposed to kick a man when he’s down.

But this is football.

Divisional rivalry football.

You don’t let up on your opponent when he’s down — you ground and pound.

And then you ground and pound some more.

When to Buy Recommendation

Our sponsor Bookmaker has the Eagles at -7 for just three cents more than standard juice, and that’s where I grabbed it.

The line is sitting at Philadelphia -7½ at most shops, but for some strange reason, the extra juice is on the Giants +7½ — which means instead of laying the usual 15–20 cents extra to buy the hook off of a touchdown, you can get it a little cheaper.

Do it!

My Play

Philadelphia -7 (-113)