New York Giants vs New England Patriots – Week 13 NFL Picks
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Monday, December 1, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Odds: Patriots -7 | Total: 46
The Rundown
This Monday night matchup brings together two teams trending in opposite directions, but both operating in a style that consistently burns clock. The Patriots sit at 10-2 with a top-10 scoring offense (26.5 PPG) and a top-10 scoring defense (18.83 PPG), yet their offensive line enters this week heavily banged up. Their starting left tackle is out, multiple linemen are on the injury report, and New England’s protection issues have forced a more conservative, methodical offensive approach in recent weeks.
The Giants, meanwhile, are in the middle of a full reset. They fired their head coach two games ago and removed their defensive coordinator after last week’s collapse in Detroit. Despite the turmoil, New York has played its best situational football of the season over the last three weeks—leading Chicago by 10 in the fourth quarter, leading Green Bay by one late, and leading Detroit by 10 before falling in overtime. Their style under the interim staff is slower, more run-centric, and built around keeping the game in front of them.
Why the Giants Can Keep This Low-Scoring
The Giants’ two statement wins this season—over the Chargers (21-18) and Eagles (34-17)—came from the same blueprint they’re using now: ball control, reduced possessions, and forcing opponents into long drives. That identity strengthens this matchup’s Under profile. They rank first in the league in rushing attempts per game (30.2) and ninth in rushing yards (124.5), which naturally drains the clock and limits total play volume.
New York also gets QB Jaxson Dart back, and his presence stabilizes the offense even if it doesn’t significantly boost scoring output. As you specified, he returns with “10 TD, 3 INT, and 7 turnovers on the ground,” making him a dual-threat player who moves chains but also plays a style that keeps drives long rather than explosive. With Dart back, New York is less likely to take unnecessary risks or push tempo.
The Patriots’ Path to a Methodical Game
Despite their strong record, New England’s offensive line injuries matter here. Their left tackle is out and multiple linemen are compromised, pushing the Patriots toward shorter pass concepts, heavy use of TreVeyon Henderson, and clock-friendly possessions. Drake Maye remains highly efficient—leading the NFL in completion percentage (70.87%) and ranking second in yards per attempt (8.8)—but this matchup sets up for controlled, sustained drives rather than explosive scoring.
The Giants’ defense has struggled all season, but their ability to slow the game is real. They allow 157.17 rushing yards per game (#32), meaning New England is likely to lean run-heavy, and run-heavy football supports the Under. New England is already balanced (112.4 rushing yards per game, #20) and has no need to turn this into a track meet as a 7-point favorite at home.
Verified Efficiency Comparison
| Metric | Giants | Patriots | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 22.0 (#22) | 26.5 (#7) | Patriots |
| Points Allowed | 27.83 (#30) | 18.83 (#6) | Patriots |
| Rush Attempts/Game | 30.2 (#1) | 28.9 (#7) | Both (clock drainer) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 124.5 (#9) | 112.4 (#20) | Giants (slight) |
| Completion % | 60.4% (#27) | 70.87% (#1) | Patriots |
| Turnover Margin | -0.5 (#28) | 0.0 (#14) | Patriots |
Game Script: Why This Points to the Under
- Both teams run the ball at top-10 rates and are comfortable bleeding the clock.
- New England’s injured offensive line forces shorter passes and reduced explosiveness.
- Giants interim coaching staff has committed fully to ball control to stay competitive.
- Giants’ last three games were all tight, slow grinders with fourth-quarter leads.
- QB Dart’s return boosts stability but not necessarily scoring.
- New York’s penalties and turnover issues still slow games due to long drives on both sides.
- New England’s defense is top-6 in points allowed and strong enough to limit big plays.
The Bottom Line
This matchup has the skeleton of a slow, possession-driven game. The Giants’ coaching overhaul has led to a more conservative identity that shortens games, while the Patriots’ battered offensive line encourages a run-first, risk-averse approach. Both teams prefer long drives over tempo, both run the ball at high volume, and both have enough defensive structure to force red-zone stalls.
New England has the clear statistical and personnel edges, but the tempo, style, and injury realities create an environment where reaching the mid-40s requires unusual efficiency. The more likely script is methodical offense, extended drives, and a total that stays inside the number.
Prediction
New England Patriots 24, New York Giants 17
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Under 46 — Both teams eat clock; OL injuries and coaching changes point to a lower-scoring game.
- ⭐⭐ Patriots -7 — Strength in the trenches + home field.
