In a battle for draft positioning at Allegiant Stadium, the 2–13 Giants face the 2–13 Raiders in what projects as a defensive grind. Expert Chad Fox breaks down why the Raiders’ league-worst scoring offense makes the 42.5 total the focal point for Week 17 bettors.
Opening Setup
This Week 17 matchup features two teams near the bottom of the standings, which often creates a different kind of betting challenge. Both the Giants and Raiders enter at 2–13, and for bettors, games like this require a focus on efficiency and game script rather than motivation narratives.
From a numbers standpoint, the offenses stand out for the wrong reasons. Las Vegas is averaging 14.5 points per game, the lowest mark in the league, while New York sits at 20.9 points per game. When two teams struggle to score consistently, the total often becomes more relevant than the side.
The central betting question is whether either offense can produce enough sustained drives to push this game past a modest scoring threshold.
Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 28
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
TV: CBS
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Las Vegas -1.5 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 42.5 | Over -105 / Under -115 |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas -120 / Giants +100 | – |
Quick Translation: Laying -1.5 means Las Vegas needs to win by at least two points to cover. The total of 42.5 reflects expectations of a relatively low-scoring game, with both teams needing to combine for 43 or more points to push the over.
Market Context
The total has hovered in the low-40s throughout the week, which aligns with how both offenses have performed over a larger sample. Oddsmakers appear to be pricing this game with the expectation that sustained scoring drives will be difficult to come by.
The spread has remained tight with Las Vegas favored at home. When two teams are closely priced despite similar records, it often signals expectations of a slower-paced game where a few key plays could determine the outcome.
Key Matchups
The most notable matchup involves Las Vegas’s rushing offense against New York’s run defense.
Yards per rush allowed: Giants 5.5 (32nd) vs Raiders offense 3.6 (32nd)
Rushing yards allowed per game: Giants 150.9 (31st) vs Raiders 116.5 (17th)
Points per game: Raiders 14.5 (32nd) vs Giants 20.9 (23rd)
Even though Las Vegas ranks last in yards per carry offensively, New York’s run defense has struggled to limit efficiency. That creates a scenario where the Raiders may be able to lean on the run more than usual to manage game flow.
Why the Under Stands Out
- Offensive Output: Las Vegas ranks last in points per game, while New York sits in the bottom third of the league in points per play.
- Red-Zone Efficiency: The Giants convert under 47% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, while the Raiders have been inconsistent finishing drives defensively.
- Turnover Profile: Both teams carry negative turnover margins, increasing the likelihood of stalled drives rather than sustained scoring.
Betting Outlook
Under 42.5 (-115) — This matchup features two offenses that have struggled to sustain drives and convert scoring opportunities. The Raiders average 4.5 yards per play, while the Giants sit at 5.2, numbers that generally point toward shorter possessions and fewer explosive plays.
With both teams leaning on young quarterbacks and inconsistent execution, the under offers a cleaner angle than trying to project which side gains a narrow edge.
Side Note: Las Vegas -1.5 is understandable given home field advantage and New York’s 0–8 road record, but the total presents a clearer path based on season-long trends.
What to Watch For
- Early turnovers affecting field position
- Las Vegas’s ability to establish the run
- Red-zone execution on both sides
- Game pace through the first quarter
Bottom Line
This matchup profiles as a low-efficiency game driven by field position and defensive stops rather than sustained offensive success. While Las Vegas holds a modest home-field edge, the more reliable betting angle comes from fading both offenses.
If the game plays to form, points should be at a premium throughout.
Score Projection: Raiders 17, Giants 13.
