RBD digs into Green Bay vs Chicago betting angles, systems, and gut instincts while weighing models, revenge spots, and line movement.
Green Bay at Chicago
Jacksonville at Denver
Free Pick Prediction(s)
I’m looking at two games this week, Green Bay at Chicago and Jacksonville at Denver.
The GB/Chi is on Saturday so I’ll buy that one first before making a decision on Jax/Den.
The Bears and the Jags are both in the “Five in a Row” spot.
Five in a Row System
From my Puzzle Pick article, dated 11/23:
This play is based on the simplest of concepts:
Books don’t like to pay people.
They like to collect from people.
Years ago, when I was a wee young sports bettor, I wondered at what point the Books adjust the line enough to make sure that they don’t keep paying people who are jumping on a team’s winning streak.
Was it three straight games ATS?
Four? Seven?
I put a lot of time into it, using different numbers (between three and eight) and checking out the ATS record for their following games.
And I came up with a profitable win percentage for one certain number – five.
Betting AGAINST a team who had covered five straight games was 6-2 last season.
It’s 3-0 this season, making the 2-year total 9-2, 81%.
Tough to ignore numbers like that.
But on Saturday, that’s just exactly what I’m going to do.
I’m going to ignore not only that 81% spot, but a few others as well.
Why the Models Say No
BOTH of my models for picking Wrong Favorites say take Chicago.
WF1 is 13-14 on Hm teams.
WF2 is 21-24 on Hm teams.
And when I have a match, when both models say take the same team, the record on Hm teams is 6-8.
Both WF spots have losing records.
When they have a match, it’s a losing record.
And the Bears are in the “Five in a Row” spot.
All of which is a Red Flag warning me to NOT take Chicago.
But…
But . . . (there’s always a “but”)
It’s as simple as this – I think the Bears are a better team right now.
Two weeks in a row I’ve watched the Pack struggle in the second half.
They we’re outscored by Chicago 18-14 two weeks ago at Hm in Green Bay.
They got lucky and survived.
Last week they weren’t as lucky and lost to Denver, getting outscored 20-10 in the second half, giving up 135 second half passing yards to Bo Nix.
They stink in crunch time.
They can’t close the deal.
And this week they’re without their best player on defense, Micah Parsons.
Plus, on offense, both Jacobs and Watson are questionable.
Neither has practiced this week, and even if they do play they’ll be hobbled at best, which means Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense is going to be in trouble.
Revenge Spot (Yes, I Know)
Betting ON Chicago means betting against Green Bay, which gives me a shot at revenge because the Packers cost me money last week when they lost to Denver.
And though as I always say, “Revenge is NOT a tool on the handicappers belt” it is a spot that I like being in (it’s the unavoidable Sicilian in me.)
And I’m not the only one out for Revenge, as the Bears look to gain a little payback for their loss in Green Bay two weeks ago.
It’s not an easy call to make.
I’m betting against a strong system, “Five in a Row” that’s hitting at 81%, this season and last year.
I’m betting against THREE of my own handicapping models that say, “Don’t Bet the Bears.”
I’m betting against my own credo, “Don’t Bet for Revenge.”
The Numbers That Matter
But I’m going with my Gut Feel.
And I do have some standard stats to back my play.
Green Bay on the Rd:
4-2-1 SU, 2-5 ATS
Chicago at Hm:
5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
Those numbers favor the Bears.
Division Stakes
The Bears are in first place, the Packers in second, two games back.
Both teams have two games left on their schedule after Sunday’s game.
Chicago faces two teams with winning records.
Green Bay faces two teams who don’t have a winning record.
So, yeah, kind of an important game for the Bears if they want to win the division.
As for Green Bay, two of the three wild card spots are going to go to the NFC West, so if the Packers want to make the postseason they need to win this one and stay a game ahead of the Lions.
Line Movement
The line opened Green Bay -2, and Chicago money came in (rightfully so, I think.)
The Bears are now at anywhere from +1′ to -1.
My Play
Chicago +1
Record Update
Recap: 0-2
Record: 11-8
Review:
As noted in my weekly recap article, both Tampa Bay and Green Bay couldn’t close out leads and ended up losing SU.
I got one unit back when the Giants lost again, assuring me a victory on my Under 5′ Regular Season Wins bet.
I’ll add that to my overall record when the money shows up in my account, but technically right now I’m 12-8.
