NFL Pick Green Bay at Pittsburgh
Sunday Primetime 8:00 p.m. on NBC
Today, a pick and some food for thought for those of you who like to handicap your own games.
Last week, I got a nice win using the Rams over the Jaguars. The play was based on two different spots from my database.
WF1 (Wrong Fav) said the Jags should be the Favorite in the game. The books made LAR -3.
Going into that game, WF1 had an overall record of 12-20, a solid Fade at 62%.
Also, when I have an AFC team as a WF1 over an NFC team, the record was 3-7, very solid 70% Fade.
And, overall this season, the NFC was 22-12, 64% ATS against the AFC.
All those stats converged to tell me to buy the Rams -3, and LAR won easily, 35-7.
WF1 AFC vs NFC is now 3-8, a smoking hot 72% Fade. So naturally, I was hoping I’d have at least one to use this week.
I just finished my handicapping, and . . .
No.
Only four games qualify for any of the systems I use, and none of them have a large enough edge to exploit. So I’m forced to look elsewhere for a play.
How about an AFC vs NFC spot?
Going into the early morning London game last week, the NFC was 22-12, ATS, 64%.
The Rams covered, 23-12, 65%
Then Carolina covered vs NY, 24-12, 66%.
Then NYG covered vs Denver, 25-12, 67%.
Then Seattle beat Houston, 26-12, 68%.
At 26-12, there’s certainly an exploitable edge to be investigated, so I went back to this week’s card hoping for a couple of AFC vs NFC matchups I could look at.
There are eight.
Here they are:
Min at LAC
SF at Hou
Chi at Bal
Mia at Atl
Buf at Car
Dallas at Denver
Green Bay at Pit
Wash at KC
I like choice, but eight is a bit much.
That’s too many spots to play, just like the T1 spot for Overs I had in college football last week. So I’ll do the same thing I did then, look to eliminate some of the plays (the Over spots I eliminated in college last week went 1-4, so it worked very well, helping me decide which ones NOT to buy.)
GB at Pit qualifies as a WF2 spot, with Pit as the WF, but WF2 has a record of 13-16, not much of an edge to exploit as a 55% Fade.
That’s disappointing because Aaron Rodgers is going up against his old team, so it’s going to be a game worth watching.
Plus, it’s the Sunday night game, nationally televised, and the only one left on the TV schedule.
It would be nice to have an edge to play on it for a little TV rooting action.
So if none of my other models will help me eliminate some of the eight games, let’s look at subcategories, such as Hm-Rd.
The overall record is 26-12, ATS.
How about when it’s Hm Fav? Hm Dog? Etc.?
Here’s the breakdown:
HF 6-5
HD 3-2
RF 8-2
RD 9-3
What do YOU see?
The overall 68% is reduced to 54% on Hm Favs and 60% on Hm Dogs!
On the road is where NFC teams offer the most value, 80% when they’re Rd Favs and 75% when they’re Rd Dogs.
And THAT is why you break down your handicapping models into subcategories.
How does this factor into this week’s games and lines?
Atlanta is a Hm Fav, -7.
Eliminate the Falcons.
Carolina is a Hm Dog, +7.
Eliminate the Panthers.
That leaves us GB as a Rd Fav, and Dal, Minn, SF, Chicago, and Wash as Rd Dogs.
Revisiting the GB at Pit game, I have the one trend (WF2) with a slight edge in the Packers’ favor as noted above, and now I also have them as the only NFC vs AFC Rd Fav this week, a subcategory with a record of 8-2, 80%.
Guess where my money’s going.
It’s a game that I wanted some action on for viewing purposes anyway, so I’m on it now that I have some stats to back up the play.
But of course, as in every play, there’s some ugly stats to deal with too.
The Packers are 0-6 in their last six visits to Pittsburgh.
On the Rd, GB are 0-3 ATS this season.
Pit is 2-1 SU and ATS at Hm.
Reading up on this match, I see a lot of comparisons to Green Bay vs another AFC Central opponent, the Browns, a low-scoring affair that saw Cleveland come out on top.
But I don’t see it that way.
The Browns are the number one overall defensive team in the league, giving up just 257 YPG.
Pittsburgh comes in at number 28, giving up 374.
More importantly, the Browns are rated number four against the run, holding opponents to about 82 YPG, while the Steelers are middle of the Pack, allowing 116.
And Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs is back and healthy, coming off a two-TD performance last week.
The Steelers come in with a little extra rest and prep time after playing a Thursday night game, but I think Jacobs outworks Rodgers, so with a short price of just -3, I’ll ride with the tougher conference and back the Pack.
My play:
GB -3
If you’re into handicapping rather than just piggybacking on someone else’s plays, here’s an exercise for you.
In the AFC vs NFC numbers above we have an 11-game sample for a Hm Favs.
What is the record when they’re laying a field goal or fewer? What’s the record when they’re laying a TD or higher?
Get your mining pan out and start sifting, there might be gold and them ‘thar hills.
(I know I’m going to do the work. And for the lazy bastards out there, I’ll give you the records in my next article.)
Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-3
Review: Banked an easy W with LAR, using a Fade of my WF1 spot and an NFC team over an AFC team.
The Rams jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.
