Jacksonville Jaguars(3-3 SU,3-3 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2 SU,4-1 ATS), Week 7, NFL, Arrowhead Stadium, (Natural Grass) Kansas City Missouri, Sunday,October 24, 2010, 1:00 PM Eastern
By Jeff Hochman of JHSportsline.com
Betting Odds: Jags +4.5/KC-4.5
Over/Under Total: 43
On Monday Night Football, the Jaguars looked pathetic in losing 30-3 to Tennessee. David Garrard got hurt and his replacement Trent Edwards did not look sharp. The Jaguars finished last in the division the past two years, andare in chase mode again following anotherugly loss. And they might be without quarterback David Garrard who left the game with a concussion. It just wasn’t the Jags night but every team has a game like that!
Not the night we were looking for, Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio said. We turned it over four times, lost our quarterback. Not the kind of night we wanted to have.
It’s not like the Jaguars deserve to win games right now. They have been out-gained in five of their six games, and Jacksonville is ranked No. 25 in turnovers.Jacksonville was plagued by turnovers for the second straight week. The Jaguars were able to overcome three mistakes against winless Buffalo. No such luck against Tennessee, which has won six of the last eight in the series. The Jagscommittedfour turnovers in their Monday Night Football debacle. All three of Jacksonvilles losses have been one-sided affairs. The team has been outscored 96-19 against San Diego, Philadelphia and the Titans.
The Kansas City Chiefs have lost two straight after winning its first four games to start the season. Last week, saw the Houston Texans come from behind and won 35-31 as 4.5-point favorites. The Chiefs led most of the way and should have won that game. I was just happy they got the cover!
Andre Johnson caught an 11-yard touchdown pass from Matt Schaub with 28 seconds left to give Houston a stunning fourth-quarter comeback sending the crowdhome happy. The Texans scored touchdowns on their final four possessions to make up for anothershaky performanceby the defense. Houston gave up 228 yards rushing, could not force a turnover and yielded a 100-yard receiver for the fifth time in six games. Dwyane Bowe caught 9 balls for 108 yards and two touchdowns. Kansas City needs Bowe to become that go-toreceiver in the passing game if they want to keep winning. Thomas Jones cracked 100 yards for the 33rd time in his career.
I would expect a lot of running plays in this game. Both teams like to run the ball a lot even when it’s not working. The Jaguars are averaging 133 yards rushing while the Chiefs rack up 164 yards rushingper game. If David Garrard is “Out” for this game look for Maurice Jones-Drew to carry an even bigger load.Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles provide a nice one-two punch for the Chiefs,that sets up play-actionreally well later in the game.
The Jaguars’ strong suit is their running game between the tackles. Kansas City has been excellent defending the run (yielding only 90 yards per game) so it will be a test of wills in this week’s matchup. The Chiefs have been even better at home only allowing 76 rushing yards per game. Kansas City allowed 132 rushing yards last week so expect a much better effort here at home.
The Chiefs have rushed for as many yards per game then they have passed for (165 yards per game), while Jacksonville has been inconsistent defending the pass (yielding 282 yards per game) with 12 touchdowns through the air. Look for Charlie Weis to expand the Chiefs’ air attack in an effort to exploit the weak secondary that Jacksonville currently possess.
Last season, Jacksonvilledefeated the Chiefs24-21 as 7-point home favorites. Matt Cassel played well in the loss, passing for 262 yards withtwo touchdowns and zero mistakes. Jacksonville out-rushed K.C. 173-60, but only won by three points. The Chiefs are so much better on defense thanks to new defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel.
Jacksonville is just 5-13ATS in their last 18 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games at home.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5.
Trent Edwards is expected to start this game and his road record is less than impressive. The big factor is that the Jaguars will be playing this game after appearing on Monday Night Football. Jacksonville is 1-10 SU and 1-10 ATS when playing on the road afterappearing on Monday Night Football. Take the Chiefs!