Jacksonville Jaguars vs Arizona Cardinals – Week 12 NFL Picks
The betting market has spoken loudly on this Week 12 matchup, correcting a weak opener by moving the Jacksonville Jaguars through the key -2.5 number to -3. While the public often overlooks efficiency gaps, data reveals a significant chasm: Jacksonville’s offense is clean, moving the ball at 13.62 yards per point while Arizona founders at 14.89. This correction signals that professional money views the current line as a trap for anyone considering the collapsing Cardinals. The overwhelming evidence—from offensive success rate to critical line movement—points to Jacksonville dominating and covering this short number, making the Jaguars -3 our best bet for the week.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Venue: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 | Total: 47.5
The Rundown
The line flip tells the whole story. Arizona briefly opened as a small favorite before sharp bettors wasted no time pushing Jacksonville through -2.5 and to a flat -3. That’s not a casual adjustment — that’s the market correcting a bad opener once efficiency numbers came into focus.
Jacksonville simply moves the ball more efficiently. Their 13.62 yards per point dwarfs Arizona’s 14.89, a meaningful gap that shows up over 12–14 drives. Meanwhile, Arizona has surrendered 85 points in their last two games and committed 17 penalties against San Francisco alone. The Cardinals’ “bend” defense has gone full collapse mode, especially on third downs.
The Jaguars, on the other hand, just shredded a Chargers defense that had been trending up, scoring on seven of 11 meaningful drives. Jacksonville’s 6–4 record still undersells where this team is when their offensive line holds up and Trevor Lawrence gets rhythm throws early. The 3–7 Cardinals? Their record might be flattering them.
Why Jacksonville Has the Edge
The Jaguars maintain a clear drive-efficiency advantage. They convert 37.4% of drives into points, while Arizona’s defensive collapse has made it increasingly easy for opponents to string together long possessions.
Lawrence is also rounding into form. Over his last four games he’s completing 68.4% of his throws with a far cleaner 2.1 TD-to-INT ratio. Pair that with a stabilized offensive line, and Jacksonville consistently creates scoring chances — something Arizona hasn’t come close to doing since Week 6.
The Numbers That Matter
Yards Per Point: Jacksonville 13.62 vs Arizona 14.89 — cleaner, more efficient scoring profile for Jacksonville.
Yards Per Play: Jacksonville 5.4 vs Arizona 5.1
Third Down Conversion: Jacksonville 37.4% vs Arizona’s increasingly leaky defensive third-down stops.
Success Rate: Jacksonville 42.1% vs Arizona 38.9%
Explosive Play Rate: Jacksonville 13.8% vs Arizona 11.2%
Three-and-Out Rate: Jacksonville 21.4% vs Arizona 26.7%
Jacksonville’s edges extend into the areas that decide games — early downs, red zone execution, turnover avoidance, and explosive plays. Arizona’s turnover rate has dipped to one every 19.3 possessions in the last month, and combined with their rising defensive penalties, the Cards consistently hand opponents free possessions and short fields. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has trimmed their turnover rate to one every 24.1 possessions, giving them more clean drives to work with.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
This week’s move from Arizona -1 to Jacksonville -3 is one of the cleanest market corrections you’ll see — sharp bettors immediately grabbed the Jags, and the books adjusted through the key number without hesitation.
The total sticking at 47.5 is also telling. Jacksonville’s offense is improving, but the market still respects both teams’ slow pace and Arizona’s inability to avoid self-inflicted wounds (penalties, negative plays, stalled drives). Marvin Harrison Jr.’s appendicitis uncertainty only adds to Arizona’s offensive problems — losing their WR1 would be a major hit to an already struggling passing attack.
Handle is clearly tilted toward Jacksonville, which mirrors the sharp side. When line movement and handle agree, the market is usually right.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Jacksonville | Arizona | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 13.62 | 14.89 | Jacksonville |
| Success Rate | 42.1% | 38.9% | Jacksonville |
| Explosive Play Rate | 13.8% | 11.2% | Jacksonville |
| Third-Down Conversion % | 37.4% | Vulnerable | Jacksonville |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 21.4% | 26.7% | Jacksonville |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 24 | 1 per 19 | Jacksonville |
Jacksonville wins across the board here. The Jaguars’ modest uptick in tempo means 4–5 additional offensive possessions since the bye, while Arizona’s defense has shown major conditioning and discipline issues. Fourth-quarter numbers especially show a defense that fades as the game goes on.
The Jags’ combination of efficiency and pacing should widen the gap as the game progresses.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Everything points toward Jacksonville covering this short number. They’re better in every efficiency category, healthier, cleaner with the ball, and playing their best offense of the season. Arizona’s defense is collapsing, their turnover luck has evaporated, and their home field hasn’t mattered (1–4 at State Farm Stadium).
The Jags have several paths to victory — sustained drives, explosive plays, turnover margins — while Arizona has only one: hope Lawrence makes mistakes. With the way he’s playing, that’s unlikely.
Prediction
Jacksonville 27, Arizona 19
Best Bets
⭐⭐⭐ Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-110) — Best efficiency edge on the board in Week 12.
⭐⭐ Under 47.5 (-105) — Arizona’s penalties and pace issues shorten the game.
⭐ Jacksonville Team Total Over 23.5 — Arizona’s defense has surrendered 42+ points per game over the last two weeks.
Game Flow Projection
Jacksonville should establish control early with efficient first-down play and sustained drives. Arizona’s offense becomes predictable if forced into catch-up mode, and the receiver injuries only tighten the screws. As long as Jacksonville avoids negative plays and protects the ball, their advantages in success rate and YPP should carry them to a comfortable win.
KEY ANGLE: Jacksonville’s yards-per-point edge gives them extra scoring opportunities against a Cardinals defense trending sharply downward.