Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans – Week 10 NFL Picks
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 | Total: 37.5
The Rundown
This one flipped fast. The Texans opened -1.5 earlier in the week, but with C.J. Stroud ruled out (concussion protocol), the Jaguars are now short favorites. Veteran Davis Mills gets the start for Houston, and while he’s serviceable, there’s a clear efficiency drop. Jacksonville’s offense has been steady — not flashy, but efficient — and in a game lined under 38, that steadiness carries a lot of weight.
Jacksonville ranks 9th in points per drive (1.8) compared to Houston’s 22nd (1.4). That edge might not sound huge, but over a dozen possessions, it equates to nearly a touchdown difference. With Mills replacing Stroud, that gap widens. The Texans’ drive success rate has already been sliding for a month — just 32.4% in their last four games — while Jacksonville remains consistent at 39.2%. Against a Houston defense that’s been on the field too long lately, that matters.
Injury Ledger & Market Context
Both sides come in banged up, but the bigger storyline is under center. For Jacksonville, Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) missed practice Wednesday, while Hunter Long (hip/knee), Jourdan Lewis (neck), and Ezra Cleveland (knee/ankle) were also sidelined. Several key contributors — Dyami Brown (concussion), Dennis Gardeck (chest), Davon Hamilton (back), and Jack Kiser (quad) — were limited but trending toward questionable.
For Houston, DeMeco Ryans confirmed Stroud’s out, meaning Mills starts behind a patchwork line. Tytus Howard (concussion) and Ed Ingram (knee) didn’t practice, and both Denico Autry (knee) and Will Anderson Jr. (quad) missed Wednesday reps. Nick Chubb (foot) remains sidelined, while Dalton Schultz (knee/shoulder) was limited. That’s a lot of attrition for a team leaning on defense and ground control to stay competitive.
Why Jacksonville Has the Edge
The Jaguars’ offense simply travels better. They’ve been the more efficient team across all major metrics — from yards per play (5.1 vs 5.0) to red-zone scoring (51.85% vs 36.36%). Jacksonville converts 36.36% of third downs, while Houston sits near the bottom of the league at 32.41%.
Without Stroud, Houston’s offensive ceiling plummets. Mills has a career 6.6 yards per attempt average with a 28.4% success rate on pressured dropbacks. Jacksonville’s defense, top-10 in takeaways and stingy against the run, matches up well here. Expect the Jaguars to load up early to force Mills into obvious passing downs — where the team’s season INT thrown rate is 1.81% (offense), a number Jacksonville’s defense (Opp INT% 3.72%) is built to challenge.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Jacksonville 1.8 (9th) | Houston 1.4 (22nd)
- Success Rate: Jacksonville 42.1% | Houston 37.8%
- Drive Success Rate: Jacksonville 39.2% | Houston 32.4%
- Yards Per Play: Jacksonville 5.1 | Houston 5.0
- Red Zone TD Rate: Jacksonville 51.85% | Houston 36.36%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Jacksonville 22.1% | Houston 28.3%
Time of possession is essentially a wash on season rates (HOU 54.49%, JAX 52.91%), so the quarterback status and drive quality should decide the tilt.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
Once Stroud’s injury was confirmed, books wasted no time flipping this line. Jacksonville now sits between -1 and -2 depending on shop, while the total has slid from 39.0 to 37.5. Early sharp money showed on the Under before the quarterback announcement, and that’s likely to continue. With Houston’s offense now running through Mills, explosive play probability falls sharply — not great news when your opponent’s defense ranks top-10 in early-down success prevention.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Snapshot
| Metric | Jacksonville | Houston | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 1.8 | 1.4 | Jacksonville |
| Success Rate | 42.1% | 37.8% | Jacksonville |
| Drive Success Rate | 39.2% | 32.4% | Jacksonville |
| Explosive Play Rate | 12.8% | 9.4% | Jacksonville |
| Yards Per Play | 5.1 | 5.0 | Jacksonville |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 51.85% | 36.36% | Jacksonville |
| Turnover Margin | +1.0 | +0.8 | Jacksonville |
The Bottom Line & Prediction
With Stroud out, the efficiency gap turns into a chasm. Jacksonville’s consistency on both sides — and Houston’s lack of proven offensive depth — create a clear betting side. Unless the Texans win the turnover battle by multiple possessions, their path to 20 points is thin. The total drop reflects reality: this game will move methodically, with Jacksonville’s stability winning out late.
Prediction
Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Houston Texans 13
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline (-120) — Taking away the half point loss risk.
- ⭐⭐ Under 37.5 (-110) — Both teams lean run-heavy; Houston’s offense shrinks without Stroud.
Game Flow Projection: Expect a field-position game early before Jacksonville’s offense finds a rhythm midgame. Mills likely plays caretaker, but Houston’s drives will stall without explosive plays. Jaguars’ red zone efficiency and turnover edge tilt the final margin.
