New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins – Week 4 NFL Picks
Game Information
Date: Monday, September 29, 2025
Time: 7:15 PM ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Odds: Miami Dolphins -3 | Total: 45
The Rundown
We’ve got a Monday night matchup of two winless AFC East squads, and the market is siding with the home team. Miami opened -2.5 and now sits at -3, but the efficiency board tells a different story. The Jets are producing points at 68.2 yards per point compared to Miami’s 72.4. That gap isn’t small—it stretches into a full score over 11–12 drives. The Dolphins’ issues are glaring: a league-worst 18.7% red zone touchdown rate and a 38.1% three-and-out clip. They can’t stay on the field, and their defense ranks 31st in explosive plays allowed. The Jets aren’t perfect, but they’re at least functioning. Miami looks broken.
Why New York Has the Edge
The Jets are simply more efficient. They sustain 41.2% of their drives, while Miami keeps just 32.8% alive. That’s nearly three extra possessions’ worth of chances across four quarters. New York’s defense is stingy on early downs, forcing long-yardage situations where Miami’s 31.4% third-down conversion rate drags them under. Add in Justin Fields’ mobility against a Dolphins defense that’s already bleeding explosive plays, and the matchup tilts toward New York.
Compare your bets to our in-depth NFL betting previews.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Jets 1.64 vs Dolphins 1.42
- Drive Success Rate: Jets 41.2% vs Dolphins 32.8%
- Red Zone TD Rate: Jets 48.3% vs Dolphins 18.7%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Jets 31.4% vs Dolphins 38.1%
- Turnover Rate: Jets 1 per 22.1 plays vs Dolphins 1 per 18.3
These aren’t minor edges—they stack. The Jets finish drives at nearly three times Miami’s red zone rate. They control possession (31:12 per game to Miami’s 24:18). The Dolphins are handing opponents short fields with wasted possessions.
Market Analysis
Despite both teams at 0-3, Miami’s line ticked up to -3. Public tickets lean Jets, but sharp money tilted Dolphins early. The total climbed from 43.5 to 45, betting on offense finally showing up. Still, efficiency says otherwise—Miami’s inability to punch it in keeps points capped. Fields’ expected return locks the Jets into a live position as road dogs.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Jets | Dolphins | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 1.64 | 1.42 | Jets |
| Success Rate | 42.1% | 38.7% | Jets |
| Drive Success Rate | 41.2% | 32.8% | Jets |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 48.3% | 18.7% | Jets |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 31.4% | 38.1% | Jets |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 22.1 | 1 per 18.3 | Jets |
The Bottom Line
When every meaningful efficiency number points the same way, you listen. The Jets sustain drives, finish in the red zone, and protect the ball better. Miami wastes possessions and can’t cash in close. Home field helps some, but not enough to mask these flaws. If you’re backing the Dolphins, you’re betting on a massive turnaround in red zone execution—nothing on tape suggests that’s coming.
Prediction
New York Jets 24, Miami Dolphins 20
Best Bets
- Jets +3 (-115) — Efficiency edge across the board
- Under 45 (-110) — Miami’s red zone woes cap scoring
- Jets Moneyline (+135) — Wrong team favored if you trust the data
Game Flow Projection: Jets control possession and force Miami into field goals. Fields creates just enough explosive plays to separate late. Dolphins need an outlier red zone game to cover.
