Loot’s comprehensive betting preview for Week 18 pits a motivated Sean Payton squad against a Chargers team focused on health over seeding. Using the latest handicapping data, we evaluate the 12.5-point point spread and the best bet for Sunday afternoon in Denver.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (13-3 SU, 6-9-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 18
Date/Time: Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV:
Betting Odds
Point Spread: LAC +12.5/DEN -12.5 (Bovada)
Money Line: LAC +550, DEN -850
Over/Under Total: 37.5
The Los Angeles Chargers take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday in a key Week 18 AFC West showdown at Mile High. After an 11-game win streak was ended the previous week, the Broncos got back on the winning track on Christmas Day, beating a dilapidated Chiefs squad, 20-13, for their 13th win of the season. Meanwhile, on Saturday, the Chargers lost 20-16 to the Texans, falling to 11-5. Can the Chargers rebound this week and enter the postseason with some good momentum? Or will the Broncos serve notice that they’re the top dogs in the conference? Let’s break it down!
Playoff Picture
Both teams are in. The Broncos have already won the AFC West and can secure the top seed in the AFC with a win or a New England loss. With the Patriots playing Miami on Sunday, the Broncos’ win would be the preferred route to a first-round bye. The Chargers are locked into a wild-card spot, and the results of Sunday could put them anywhere from the fifth to the seventh seed. In an early game on Sunday, the Texans play the Colts. The Chargers would need the Texans to lose that game in order to jump up in the seeding.
The thing is, the Chargers aren’t trying to win this game with the announcement that the Chargers will rest Herbert and most starters. There is no measurable gain to be had by winning on Sunday. In fact, exposing players like Herbert who are dealing with nagging injuries to try to win a game that might give them a worse matchup could be completely backwards. So the Bolts will have Trey Lance at quarterback and any appearances from the normal starters might be nominal at best.
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Tough Spot for the Bolts?
They’re on the road playing a team that has won 12 of its last 13 games with a set of motivating factors that appear unclear as of press time. Denver is at home with a lot to play for, and from a postseason matchups perspective, you’d almost want the Chargers to lose this game so they can face New England, a team whose pass-rush might not fully exploit a ramshackle Chargers’ offensive line. The Chargers were the last team to face the Broncos before Denver went on a massive season-defining 11-game win streak, beating Denver, 23-20. So from that perspective, maybe they match up well with the Broncos. The Chargers got a good game from Omarion Hampton, while their defense kept the Broncos’ offense from doing much. It’s not really the same Chargers team with all the injuries they sustained over the course of the season, and now with the starters out. And it’s definitely not the same Denver team that earlier in the season looked nothing like the serious contender they would later become.
Other Thoughts
Are we starting to see increased imperfections with the Broncos? Did they peak during their 11-game win streak and are now coming down to earth? Not that the Chargers are in a position to talk after such a flat showing against the Texans and with them sitting everyone this week. We now see the Broncos get hammered at home by the Jaguars and then struggle to extinguish a Chiefs team that had folded its tent in consecutive weeks. Will that result in the Broncos going above and beyond to create some positivity before the playoffs? Or is it just a sign that they peaked too early? Even with the Chargers waving the white flag, how comfortable are you laying this number on Denver right now?
Teams can go through some drastic iterations throughout a season. The Broncos have covered the whole spectrum, starting off 1-2 and looking ragged, looking fantastic during an 11-game win streak, and now, in these last few weeks, looking imminently beatable again. Do you just go ahead and figure with Sean Payton looking to restore some order, and with what is at stake, they just open it up on a Chargers’ team that is clearly not trying to win? Or do they create just enough separation, stop short of stomping the Bolts, and bring this number into play?
Take the Home Favorite
I think a team like Denver is in a state of urgency that the Bolts will not match. That means a pass-rush wreaking havoc against an O-line that isn’t the same one from earlier in the season, amongst other things, can turn this game into a laugher. Granted, sometimes things make so much sense on paper, leading into Week 18, only to see it all fall flat once the games start. But it’s difficult to imagine a Chargers team packed with backups challenging a serious contender with so much to play for, as the Broncos. And even if the Broncos are in the spirit of saving their pieces for the playoffs, too, to some extent, I’m not sure how much resistance the Bolts can even provide in this state. They’re a good team, but not one with unending depth that can be expected to remain afloat without all their key personnel. And as the game carries on, I don’t think even Denver letting off the gas gets them within this number. I’ll take the Broncos.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the Denver Broncos minus 12.5 points.
