Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens – Week 3 NFL Preview
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Monday, September 23, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Odds: Baltimore Ravens -5 | Total: 53
The Rundown
Monday Night Football gives us a heavyweight matchup with both teams flashing contender profiles. Baltimore opened -5.5, ticked down to -5, while the total climbed from 51.5 to 53. That movement tracks the numbers: Detroit is finishing at 58.2 yards per point, Baltimore at 62.8, a meaningful edge for the Lions. But the Ravens’ Week 2 explosion against Cleveland showed their ceiling, and Lamar Jackson in primetime has historically been priced at a premium. Detroit’s 52-spot on Chicago was more about Bears’ breakdowns than a flawless Lions offense. The spread sits squarely between perception and efficiency, which is why sharp money’s nibbling on Detroit but not enough to flip the board.
Why Baltimore Has the Edge
Red zone execution is where Baltimore separates. The Ravens are cashing 75% of their trips for touchdowns, third in the league, while holding opponents to 50%. Detroit’s defense is at the opposite end, giving up TDs on 71% of red zone possessions. That swing projects to nearly a touchdown difference in a game where each side sees 3–4 trips inside the 20. Add Lamar’s dual-threat factor and Derrick Henry’s short-yardage power, and Baltimore has the personnel to turn those red zone cracks into points.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Ravens 2.8 (3rd) vs Lions 2.6 (7th)
- Yards Per Play: Ravens 6.2 vs Lions 5.9
- Success Rate: Ravens 51.2% vs Lions 47.8%
- Drive Success Rate: Ravens 72.5% vs Lions 68.9%
- Explosive Play Rate: Ravens 15.4% vs Lions 13.7%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Ravens 18.2% vs Lions 22.6%
Baltimore’s ability to sustain drives shows up everywhere. They’re converting 46% on third down, forcing Detroit into long fields with their 38.9% defensive rate. The Lions make splash plays, but a 22.6% three-and-out rate kills too many possessions. Baltimore’s lower turnover rate and stronger situational metrics compound into hidden points over 12–14 drives.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
Ravens opened -5.5, trimmed to -5 despite 68% of tickets backing them — a sign sharps grabbed Detroit early. Handle splits are nearly even. Total has climbed two full points, showing confidence in both offenses being healthier than the open implied. Baltimore’s prime-time record (12-4 under Harbaugh) still commands respect, but with Van Noy out and Detroit healthy, the Lions aren’t drawing dead. The number reflects perception, not purely production.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Lions | Ravens | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.6 | 2.8 | Ravens |
| Success Rate | 47.8% | 51.2% | Ravens |
| Explosive Play Rate | 13.7% | 15.4% | Ravens |
| Drive Success Rate | 68.9% | 72.5% | Ravens |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 22.6% | 18.2% | Ravens |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 66.7% | 75.0% | Ravens |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 18.5 | 1 per 22.3 | Ravens |
Baltimore owns the board. Early downs, red zone, turnovers — the efficiency edge is consistent. They’re scoring on 83% of goal-to-go trips, while Detroit’s defense is giving up nearly three of four. Those incremental advantages add up quickly in a game expected to see 11–12 drives per side.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
The metrics tilt toward Baltimore. Their ability to finish drives, win third downs, and protect the football creates an expected edge of a touchdown or more. Detroit can hang early with explosive shots, but sustaining pace against Baltimore’s possession game is a tall order. Home-field and red zone efficiency carry the day.
Prediction
Baltimore Ravens 31, Detroit Lions 24
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Ravens -5 (-110) — Efficiency edge justifies laying the number despite early Detroit money.
- ⭐⭐ Over 53 (-110) — Both offenses healthy, pace and efficiency point higher.
Game Flow Projection: Ravens grind out a 14–10 halftime edge, extend late with red zone execution and superior possession game. Detroit lands explosives but too many empty trips to cover.
