MNF Picks: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
When: Monday, October 10, 8:15 p.m.
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Point Spread: LV +7.5/KC -7.5 (Bovada – Best live betting platform! 50% real cash bonus up to $250! TONS of prop bets for each NFL game! FAST crypto payouts! What more could you ask for?
Total: O/U 51.5
It’s been a long, rough decade for the Raiders in this rivalry series with the Chiefs. Not only did they have to watch Kansas City turn the tables and dominate a rivalry that they once owned, but they’ve had to watch the Chiefs turn into one of the best teams in the NFL while they stumbled through most of the past ten years. While the Chiefs have hosted four consecutive AFC championship games, the Raiders don’t have a playoff win since 2002. To make matters worse against the Chiefs, the Raiders franchise is a mere 3-15 in its past 18 meetings with Kansas City, including eight losses at Arrowhead in nine tries.
And things don’t look like they’re getting any better for the Silver and Black, who might be out of the AFC West race already if they lose this game in Missouri. Kansas City should be 4-0 if it hadn’t given away a game against the Colts, while the Raiders have a reasonable claim to be 2-2 if they had finished off the Cardinals. The opportunity is there for Vegas to climb back into this race, but they’ll have to find a way to slow down Patrick Mahomes to do that, and that’s something they’ve been totally unable to do. Since Mahomes took over in 2018, he’s played eight games against the Raiders and has never failed to put at least 28 points on the board against them. Usually, the Chiefs’ score lands in the 40s, as Kansas City has hit that number on four occasions when facing the Raiders with Mahomes under center.
How the Public is Betting the Las Vegas/Kansas City Game
The public and the sharps are split right down the middle for this contest. 53% of tickets have backed the Chiefs, and the spread has not budged from its opening total. The total has dropped from 52.5 to 51.5.
Wide receiver D.J. Turner (ankle), cornerback Anthony Averett (thumb), tackle Brandon Parker (tricep), defensive end Jordan Jenkins (knee), and linebacker Micah Kiser (knee) are out. Tight end Foster Moreau (knee), defensive lineman Neil Farrell Jr. (shoulder), wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (concussion), linebacker Denzel Perryman (concussion), and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (knee) are questionable.
Tackle Darian Kinnard (elbow), kicker Harrison Butker (ankle), running back Ronald Jones II (illness), defensive end Joshua Kaindoh (illness), offensive lineman Trey Smith (pectoral), cornerback L’Jarious Sneed (ankle) and defensive end Mike Danna (calf) are questionable. Linebacker Willie Gay (suspension), cornerback Trent McDuffie (hamstring), offensive lineman Lucas Niang (knee), tight end Blake Bell (hip flexor), and wide receiver Justyn Ross (foot) are out.
When Las Vegas Has the Ball
Look for the Raiders to take to the air in this game. Kansas City has played outstanding against the run this season, giving up a mere 65.8 yards per game on the ground, but the Chiefs’ pass defense has been questionable at best. Because the Raiders can do either thing effectively, it makes sense for Las Vegas to try to put the ball in the air and see what happens.
Last year, it didn’t work all that well for Vegas because the ground game did absolutely nothing against Kansas City. In the teams’ meeting at Arrowhead last season, the Raiders didn’t even try to run the ball against Kansas City, calling just 12 running plays and never getting a gain of longer than nine yards on the ground. Part of that was desperation when Kansas City put up 35 points in the first half, but it’s safe to say that the Raiders will be trying to go to the air first and foremost here.
They didn’t have Davante Adams last year, which might help things stay a little closer this time around. Kansas City has never really had a great pass defense and having to cover more than just Hunter Renfrow might help stretch the defense enough for Vegas to stick close. However, with no real way to keep Mahomes on the sidelines, Vegas essentially has to be perfect with the pass.
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When Kansas City Has the Ball
The Raiders’ defense is kind of like a less extreme version of Kansas City’s: a little better against the pass, a little worse against the run. That means the Chiefs genuinely can do either thing if they want to in this game, and it seems like a good bet that they’ll opt to run the ball a fair amount to keep the Raiders’ offensive weapons from turning this game into a shootout.
The Chiefs have no problem trying to win a shootout and are experts at doing so, but this is more about forcing Vegas into the kind of game that it’s not comfortable playing. Kansas City has the play in the trenches and the ground game necessary to grind out a win if it has to do it, while Las Vegas really doesn’t prefer to play that way. The Raiders are more comfortable with a total in the high 50s or low 60s, and even though the Chiefs are also just fine playing that way, it’s more likely that they’ll try to force the Raiders to be uncomfortable in this matchup.
Because of this, it might be a good idea to wait until the Chiefs’ first drive to play the total just to see how they’re going to attack. If the Chiefs go heavy with Mahomes, the over will likely be a great move. If they opt to run with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the under has a chance.
Even with the Chiefs’ penchant for points in this series, the under has actually been the play when the teams have met in Kansas City. The under has cashed in 11 of the past 14 meetings in Missouri, although, to be fair, Mahomes was only around for four of those games, and two of them were overs. Plus, the two Unders that cashed with Mahomes under center weren’t on the Chiefs’ offense: Kansas City has never scored less than 32 points against Vegas at home with Mahomes at quarterback.
No, the reason for the Unders is because the Raiders historically don’t show up in Kansas City. They’ve covered just once in six visits and have scored nine or less in three of their past four trips to Missouri. Granted, the Chiefs do this to almost everyone at Arrowhead: they’re 6-2 ATS in their past eight at home.
As far as Monday nights go, this one won’t be too bad in terms of weather. Temperatures will sit at 57 degrees at kickoff, and winds will blow at six miles per hour to the south-southeast, with only a 5% chance of rain.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread
The Raiders might have covered three times, but they don’t really have the kind of team to beat Kansas City. On the one hand, I have to give the Raiders credit for simply trying to build a good football team rather than trying to build one that is designed to beat their biggest rival, as so many teams do. The problem is that the Raiders haven’t played well this season, nor are they set up well to compete with their biggest rival. Give me the Chiefs. Bet your Week 5 NFL picks for FREE by scooping up a 125% real cash bonus when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at GTBets Sportsbook! They’ll give you a free half point every time you bet your favorite teams too!