New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Pick ATS 12/19/21

by | Last updated Dec 16, 2021 | nfl

New York Jets (3-10 SU, 3-10-0 ATS) vs. Miami Dolphins (6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, Dec. 19th, 2021, 1:00 pm (ET)

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL


Point Spread: NYJ +10/MIA -10 (Opened at 8.5 at SportsBetting)

Total: 42 (Opened at 43)

Money Line: NYJ +350/MIA -460

Power Rating: MIA -13

Key Injuries

New York Jets: WR Elijah Moore *Out* (Quad), WR Corey Davis *Out* (Core), DE John Franklin-Myers *Questionable* (Knee), G Dan Feeney *Questionable* (Back), LB Hamsah Nasirildeen *Questionable* (Illness), OT George Fant *Questionable* (Knee), DT Sheldon Rankins *Questionable* (Knee), G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif *Questionable* (Ankle)

Miami Dolphins: TE Hunter Long *Questionable* (Illness), S Jevon Holland *Out* (Covid), RB Miles Gaskin *Out* (Covid), RB Patrick Laird *Out* (Knee), RB Phillip Lindsay *Out* (Covid), Jason McCourty *Out* (Foot), WR Will Fuller *Out* (Hand)

Recent Form

The New York Jets enter Week 15 with a 3-10 record and have officially been eliminated from playoff contention. In their first year under new head coach, Robert Saleh, the team has shown some improvements but ultimately has seen the same fate of being one of the first teams eliminated from any playoff hopes. Of the Jets’ three wins, two came over notable AFC opponents, delivering upsets to both the Titans and Bengals. The Jets hope to develop rookie QB Zach Wilson, into more of a reliable leader and see him take a second-year leap in 2022. The Jets offense is ranked 22nd, with 321.5 YPG and 17.4 points per game. The team’s defense is ranked 31st in the league ahead of the Seahawks, allowing 392.8 YPG and 30.5 points per game.

After a 1-7 start to the season, the Dolphins enter Week 15 as one of the hottest teams in the NFL on a five-game win streak and find themselves in the middle of the AFC playoff race at 6-7. Aside from their Week 1 win over the Patriots, another impressive win came over the Ravens on a Thursday night back in Week 10 in a 22-10 final. After a tough first eight weeks, the defense made a quick turnaround and have allowed just 11 points per game in their last five games. The Dolphins offense is ranked 29th, amounting 309.8 YPG and 19.5 points per game. The Miami defense is 22nd best in the league, allowing 358.4 YPG and 22.2 points per game.

Miami Defense Dominates Jets

This game will feature two of the league’s worst passing defenses, both allowing over 250 yards passing per game. Though on paper, the Dolphins rank in the bottom half of the league defensively, the team has played much better on their win streak and have a great opportunity to smother rookie QB Zach Wilson and the struggling Jets offense. One way that the Dolphins defense has dominated is in their ability to force turnovers. Miami finds themselves in the top 10 of the league with 1.5 takeaways per game and 1.3 interceptions per game in their last three games. While expected to easily handle the Jets in this game, turnovers are a must when covering double-digit points in the NFL. The Jets are the perfect match when looking for turnovers, as they are the worst in the league with 1.9 giveaways per game and 1.5 interceptions per game. Against Zach Wilson, the Dolphins defense should be able to come away with at least two turnovers in this game, giving them an opportunity to extend their lead and cover the spread.

Jets Struggle to Cover

The Jets enter this week with a -171-point differential, only better than the Houston Texans. With a differential like this, the Jets have been unable to cover in a lot of their games this season. As an underdog, New York is 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and when coming off a double-digit loss, they are 1-6 ATS in the next game. Aside from their struggles on both sides of the ball, being eliminated from playoff contention gives this team next to nothing to play for mentally, other than padding some stats for those on a contract year. Against the Dolphins, who are rolling, I don’t see the Jets being the team to make it close, despite a 10-point spread to cover.

Miami Covers at Home

While the Jets have struggled to keep games close, the Dolphins have not only strung together wins but won them in confidence. In their last six games, the Dolphins are 5-0-1 ATS, meaning they haven’t suffered a loss against the spread since Week 7 against the Falcons. At home, Miami has been just as good, going 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six as a home favorite. Knocking out teams like the Ravens and Panthers, I see another dominant home performance by this Dolphins squad to keep their playoff hopes alive.

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The Historicals

This Sunday marks the season finale between these teams. The Week 11 matchup ended in a 24-17 final in favor of Miami. Dating back to 2019, the Dolphins have won four of the last five matchups.

How the Public is Betting the Jets vs. Dolphins

63% are betting the Dolphins against the spread.

51% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 42.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The New York Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and as an underdog.
  • The New York Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • The Miami Dolphins are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Miami Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
  • The Miami Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.
  • The Over is 7-3 in the Jets’ last ten games.
  • The Under is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last six games.
  • The New York Jets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Miami
  • The Under is 4-0 in the last four games between these teams.

Collin’s Pick for Jets/Dolphins

The Jets visit Miami losers of two straight and four of their last five games. Miami enters Sunday on a five-game heater and looking to make it six to move back to .500 on the season. Tua Tagovailoa has improved since taking over the starting role of this team after splitting snaps with Jacoby Brissett and Ryan Fitzpatrick the last two seasons. With the recent trends between these teams and the Dolphins dominating this rivalry for the last few years, I like the Dolphins winning this one and winning big. Take the Miami Dolphins to cover the 10-point spread. Bet your NYJ/Mia pick and ALL your Week 15 NFL bets for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!