San Francisco 49ers (0-0, 0-0 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (0-0, 0-0 ATS)
Date/Time: Week 1, 2025 — 4:05 ET
Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
TV: Fox
Point Spread: SF -2.5 / SEA +2.5 (consensus as of publish)
Over/Under Total: 43.5
The Return of the Asterisk Spot
I don’t have all my numbers with me, I’m still on vacation (yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, next time bring all my charts), so I can’t give you the records across all sports to show you how successful the Asterisk Spot has been, but in the NFL last year it was 3-11.
That’s a 78% Fade!
It was 3-10 on Hm teams and 0-1 on Rd teams.
Knowing college football season was starting while I would be away, I did have enough foresight to bring along the record for the Asterisk Spot in the kids’ game.
It was 9-20. That’s good for a 69% Fade!
I didn’t have enough foresight to bring along the Hm/Rd breakdown (gimme a break, I’m on vacation), but at 69% I’ll Fade every one of them.
I don’t know if any games qualified in college this past weekend. I forgot to handicap it because I’m on, well, you know. My bad.
NFL and college combined, the record was 12-31.
That’s a 72% Fade!
And I have my first one for this season (well, I think it’s my first one, might have been one in college last week, but . . .)
Here’s the breakdown.
I have two mathematical models (WF1 and WF2) I use to determine where the books have made the Wrong team the Fav.
When I have a game that qualifies for a WF2 spot but WF1 says the correct team is favored, and the point differential between the two is seven points or greater, I have an asterisk spot.
It’s that simple.
This week, WF2 says Seattle should be the Fav.
WF2 was 29-40 on Hm games last year, a 58% Fade. That alone is a strong enough percentage for me to make a play on San Fran.
But WF1 says San Fran is the correct Fav, and the point differential between the numbers for each is enough to qualify for the Asterisk Spot.
I’m a Seahawk fan, so for me this is one of those win-win bets. If they win, I’m happy because I’m a fan. If they lose, I’m even happier because I made money on it (fandom takes second place to finances, naturally.) Though I root for the Seahawks, my favorite team is really the one that I have money on that day.
Unless they lose.
Then they’re assholes.
When to Buy Recommendation:
San Fran opened at -1′.
A few houses still have them at -2, but -2′ is the common number that’s easily available, so that’s what I’ll use here.
I think there’s a better chance that it goes to a full field goal by kickoff rather than dropping down to -2 or fewer, so I bought this game now, before it goes up.
There is no guarantee that a handicapping model that worked last year is going to work this year, too. But with numbers like the ones on the Asterisk Spot, I’m going to run with it until it stops working.
Plus, it’s week one, McCaffrey hasn’t gotten hurt yet, and will be in the lineup, so I’ve got that going for me.
My play:
SF -2′
That’s all I have so far for week one.
I did make one Regular Season Wins bet (on the Giants), check out my article for details.
And I’m pretty sure I’ll have at least one more bet of some kind for week one. Be sure to check the PredictEm forum for updates and latest picks.
