In a previous article, I detailed a different approach to handicapping NFL Regular Season Wins Totals, based on who is going to come in last place in their division.
Over the last 10 years, 9 of 10 NFC East last-place finishers came in under their regular-season wins Total.
And over the last two seasons EVERY last place team in EVERY division came in Under their total.
It’s time to put the theory to the test in 2025.
Let’s take a closer look at the NFC East and see if we can determine who’s going to be the biggest loser: Dallas, NY, Philadelphia, or Washington.
With four teams in the division, I have a 25% chance of being right. Let’s increase my odds by removing Philadelphia from the equation.
Philly won the Super Bowl last season.
NO NFL team has EVER gone from winning the Super Bowl to finishing last in their division the next season.
Eliminate the Eagles.
And then there were three: NY, Wash, and Dal.
Let’s look at Washington.
First-year head coach Dan Quinn took the Redskins (or soon-to-be Redskins again, if you prefer) from 4-13 and last place in 2023 to 12-4 and second place in 2024.
There are no major changes to their roster, though WR McLaurin is a holdout right now. They picked up Deebo Samuels so that’ll help (for as long as he stays healthy anyway, which usually isn’t very long.)
In 2024, QB Jaden Daniels completed 69% of his passes, a rookie record. It’s scary how much better he might be with a year of experience under his belt.
The books set the number at 9′ for Redskin wins this season. They may not surpass it, but they’ll certainly get enough wins to stay ahead of the Giants and Cowboys.
Eliminate the Redskins.
And then there were two: NY and Dallas.
My odds for picking the last-place team in the East have now gone from 25% to 50/50.
The Cowboys have a new head coach this season, promoting their offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to the top spot.
Dallas was an inconsistent 7-10 last year, mainly due to injuries (and the usual questionable play calling by McCarthy).
This is the only team in the division that I see as a possible challenge to the Giants in the race to the bottom, but I’ll pick Dallas for third place and the Giants for last.
And the books agree as they’ve set Dallas’ Regular Season Wins Total at 8′, a full three games higher than the Giant’s 5′.
Now that I’ve determined who I think comes in last place, I want to look at some standard methods for picking a team for a Regular Season Wins bet – an analysis of their personnel and schedule.
A roster check of the 2025 Giants brings some bad news. My biggest reason for taking New York to go Under 6′ wins last season is gone – QB Daniel Jones is now with Indianapolis.
But no worries, they’ve signed Russell Wilson.
To a one-year deal.
One. Year.
To quote Moneyball, “A one-year contract means there’s not a lot of faith there.”
They drafted a really solid prospect in Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart, but there’s no way they’ll throw him to the wolves in his rookie season, which means when Wilson fails, they’ll turn to offseason acquisition Jameson Winston, AKA “Mr. Interceptions.”
So yeah, no worries, their QB is going to hurt my bet.
Looking at the Giants’ schedule, I see the out-of-conference teams they’re matched up against this year are in the AFC West.
The West (KC, LAC, Oak, and Den) was the toughest division in the AFC last year, amassing a combined 40 wins.
In their own conference, they get the NFC Central (Det, Min, GB, and Chi), the toughest division in all of football last season with 45 wins.
I see no “sure wins” on the Giants’ schedule.
I only see four toss-up/possible wins, the Bears, the Saints, the Patriots, and the Raiders, four teams the Giants aren’t better than but are probably equally as bad as.
And all four of those games are on the road!
Their neighbors in the NFC East swept NY last season. Yup, the Giants went 0-6 against the Eagles, Cowboys, and Redskins.
And they’re likely going to repeat the feat this season.
I REALLY like the Under here.
I have three strong indicators in my favor:
1) Division history
Over the last 10 seasons, 9 of 10 last-place teams in the NFC East finished Under their season wins total.
2) Team history
New York has finished in last place in four of the last 10 seasons.
And of course, the only one that really matters:
3) The Giants suck
There’s an extremely high probability of finishing in last place again this season (based on this year’s QBs and schedule).
In fact, they may go above and beyond their normal suckage and finish with the worst record in all of football.
I just can’t see NY getting to six wins.
Hell, I think they’re lucky if they get to three again.
My play:
NY Giants Un 5′, -120
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