Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals – Week 7 NFL Picks
The under is screaming value as the 3-1-1 Green Bay Packers travel to face the 2-4 Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in a Week 7 NFC showdown. With the total plummeting from 47 to 45 and these teams going under in seven of their last ten meetings, sharp money has identified clear value. But can Green Bay’s elite 71.43% red zone touchdown rate and dominant 52.31% third-down conversion overcome their brutal 0-2 ATS road record to cover the 6.5-point spread?
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Venue: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Odds: Green Bay Packers -6.5 | Total: 45
The Rundown
The market is treating this like a straightforward road favorite spot, but the efficiency numbers tell a more nuanced story. Green Bay opened at -6 and has held steady at -6.5, suggesting modest sharp backing despite Arizona’s four-game losing streak. The Cardinals have been competitive in those losses, and while they’re struggling at 2-4, they’ve shown resilience that doesn’t always translate to the scoreboard. Green Bay generates offense more efficiently at 5.8 yards per play compared to Arizona’s 5.0 yards per play – not a massive gap, but consistent over 60+ plays per game. However, Arizona’s defensive metrics suggest they’re better than their record indicates, holding opponents to 5.3 yards per play while Green Bay’s defense has been even stingier at 4.4 yards per play allowed. The total has dropped from an opener of 47 to 45, indicating sharp money on the under despite both teams showing offensive capability. This movement aligns perfectly with the historical trend – these teams have gone under in seven of their last ten meetings.
Why Green Bay Has the Edge
The Packers hold a significant advantage in red zone efficiency, which directly correlates to winning close games. Green Bay converts 71.43% of red zone trips into touchdowns compared to Arizona’s 56.52% rate. That’s a 15-percentage-point gap that becomes magnified in games decided by a possession. When you reach the red zone four times in a game, that efficiency difference translates to roughly one additional touchdown versus a field goal. Green Bay’s passing attack has been particularly effective, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt while completing 70% of their passes. Arizona’s defense allows 6.5 yards per pass attempt, creating a favorable matchup for the Packers’ aerial attack. Meanwhile, Arizona’s offense manages just 6.2 yards per pass attempt with a 66.5% completion rate – solid but not spectacular against a Green Bay defense that has been tough through the air.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: Green Bay 26.2 (rank 8) vs Arizona 21.7 (rank 20)
- Yards Per Play: Green Bay 5.8 vs Arizona 5.0
- Third Down Conversion: Green Bay 52.31% vs Arizona 43.90%
- Red Zone TD Rate: Green Bay 71.43% vs Arizona 56.52%
- Completion Percentage: Green Bay 70.07% vs Arizona 66.50%
- Yards Per Pass: Green Bay 8.6 vs Arizona 6.2
These margins create compounding advantages. Green Bay’s superior third-down conversion rate (52.31% versus Arizona’s 43.90%) translates to sustained drives and more scoring opportunities. The Packers’ ability to convert efficiently on third down keeps their offense on the field and their defense rested. Arizona’s lower conversion rate means more punts and fewer possessions ending in points. Time of possession slightly favors Arizona at 31:15 to Green Bay’s 30:58, but the Packers make better use of their possessions by averaging 26.2 points per game compared to the Cardinals’ 21.7. Green Bay’s rushing attack averages 4.0 yards per carry while Arizona manages 4.6 – both solid numbers that should keep defenses honest. The key difference emerges in the passing game, where Green Bay’s 8.6 yards per attempt dwarfs Arizona’s 6.2, creating explosive play potential that Arizona simply can’t match consistently.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The line opened at Green Bay -6 and moved to -6.5, crossing a key number that typically indicates sharp action on the favorite. The total’s movement from 47 to 45 suggests professional money targeting the under, likely based on the historical trend between these teams. Weather conditions in Glendale are dome-controlled, eliminating environmental factors. The line hasn’t moved off 6.5 despite the spread crossing a key number, indicating bookmakers are comfortable with current positioning. Arizona’s 3-0 ATS record as road underdogs this season creates an interesting contrarian angle, while Green Bay’s 0-2 ATS mark on the road suggests the market may be overvaluing the favorite in hostile environments.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Green Bay | Arizona | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 26.2 | 21.7 | Green Bay |
| Yards Per Play | 5.8 | 5.0 | Green Bay |
| Third Down Conv % | 52.31% | 43.90% | Green Bay |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 71.43% | 56.52% | Green Bay |
| Yards Per Pass | 8.6 | 6.2 | Green Bay |
| Completion % | 70.07% | 66.50% | Green Bay |
| Opp Points Allowed | 20.4 | 21.2 | Green Bay |
| Opp Yards Per Play | 4.4 | 5.3 | Green Bay |
| Opp 3D Conv Allowed | 34.29% | 36.00% | Green Bay |
Green Bay holds edges across virtually every meaningful efficiency metric. The Packers’ 52.31% third-down conversion rate paired with their defense allowing just 34.29% creates a double advantage – they sustain their own drives while forcing Arizona into punting situations. Arizona’s defense allows 36% on third down, which is respectable but not enough to consistently stop Green Bay’s balanced attack. The red zone numbers tell the complete story: Green Bay scores touchdowns 71.43% of the time inside the 20, while Arizona manages just 56.52%. In a game where both teams might get three or four red zone opportunities, that 15-point efficiency gap could easily account for the entire margin of victory. Green Bay’s defense allows opponents to score touchdowns on 64.29% of red zone attempts, while Arizona’s defense is actually better at 57.14% – one of the few areas where the Cardinals hold an edge.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
The efficiency metrics point to a clear Green Bay advantage that’s difficult to ignore. The Packers dominate in yards per play (5.8 vs 5.0), third-down conversions (52.31% vs 43.90%), red zone touchdowns (71.43% vs 56.52%), and passing efficiency (8.6 vs 6.2 yards per attempt). These aren’t marginal edges – they’re substantial gaps that compound over the course of a game. However, the betting context creates pause. Green Bay’s 0-2 ATS record on the road this season and 2-6 ATS mark over their last eight games suggests consistent overvaluation by the market. Arizona’s 3-0 ATS performance as road underdogs indicates they’ve exceeded expectations in similar spots. The historical head-to-head trend heavily favors the under – seven of the last ten meetings have stayed below the total, including six of the last seven in Arizona. The last meeting saw Green Bay dominate 34-13, and their 6-4 ATS historical record against Arizona supports taking the favorite. The real question isn’t whether Green Bay wins – it’s whether they win by more than a touchdown.
Prediction
Green Bay 27, Arizona 17
Best Bets
- Under 45 (-110) — Historical trends overwhelmingly support under: 7-2-1 in last 10 H2H meetings, including 6 of last 7 in Arizona
- Green Bay -6.5 (-115) — Efficiency metrics too dominant to ignore: 71.43% red zone TD rate, 52.31% third-down conversions, 8.6 yards per pass attempt all create sustainable edges
Game Flow Projection: Green Bay establishes control early through superior red zone efficiency, converting touchdowns while Arizona settles for field goals. Packers’ 52.31% third-down rate sustains drives and controls clock possession. Arizona’s 3-0 ATS road record makes this closer than the efficiency gap suggests, but Green Bay’s dominance in every meaningful metric proves too much. Packers cover with a 10-point victory. Under hits as both teams grind possessions, with the final score of 27-17 landing well below the 45 total and continuing the overwhelming historical under trend.
