Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions – Week 13 NFL Picks
The line movement from Detroit -3 to -2.5 reflects the public’s reluctance to trust the home favorite, but the efficiency metrics confirm this is the sharpest play on the board. Detroit ranks 2nd in the NFL in PPG (29.64), holding a massive 5.73-point scoring advantage over Green Bay (23.91). Crucially, the Lions’ 5.11 YPC rushing attack directly exploits Green Bay’s 3.86 YPC allowed run defense, a structural mismatch that will dictate tempo and translate directly into a comfortable victory.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Odds: Detroit Lions -2.5 | Total: 49
The Rundown
The Thanksgiving opener brings an NFC North matchup with real playoff implications, and the market has taken notice. Detroit opened -3 at home and moved to -2.5, signaling the typical home field adjustment. But there’s more happening here than just the usual Thanksgiving bump. These teams look completely different from their Week 1 meeting in Green Bay, where the Packers dominated 27-13. That game feels like ancient history in NFL terms.
The efficiency metrics show the Lions have improved across the board. Detroit’s offensive yards per point sits at 12.77, significantly better than Green Bay’s 14.17 — a meaningful gap when you’re talking about drive efficiency. The Lions also generate 5.11 yards per rush, the second-best in the NFL, against a Packers defense allowing 3.86 yards per rush. That’s a 1.25 yard per carry advantage, which compounds across a full game into sustained drives and scoring opportunities. Add in Jahmyr Gibbs running hotter than any back in football right now, and suddenly Detroit looks like the team trending upward heading into the playoffs.
Green Bay’s offense sits at 10.78 yards per pass, which is strong, but Detroit’s defense is holding opponents to 10.87 yards per pass — nearly even. Where the real gap emerges is on the ground game. Detroit’s rushing attack at 5.11 yards per carry exploits a Packers run defense that allows 3.86 YPC. The market seems caught between September memories and November reality, and Thanksgiving is exactly where those gaps get exploited.
Why Detroit Has the Edge
This game will be decided by field position and possession efficiency. Detroit’s overall offensive efficiency (12.77 yards per point) beats Green Bay’s (14.17 yards per point) across the board. That means the Lions are converting offensive possessions into points more efficiently — getting more output per yard gained.
The rushing game is where the advantage becomes clearest. Detroit averages 5.11 yards per carry while Green Bay’s defense allows 3.86 yards per carry. That 1.25 yard differential is enormous over the course of a game. If Detroit averages 25 rushing attempts, that gap alone represents approximately 30 additional yards per game — the difference between field goal range and your own 30-yard line. More importantly, those yards per carry translate into sustaining drives, keeping Green Bay’s offense off the field, and creating more scoring opportunities.
Green Bay’s passing attack is strong (10.78 yards per pass) but Detroit’s defense limits opponent efficiency at 10.87 yards per pass allowed. Defensively, the Lions also limit rushing yards (allowing only 101.73 per game to Green Bay’s 139.8 yards per game rush — a major discrepancy in Detroit’s favor).
The Numbers That Matter
Offensive Efficiency & Yards Per Point:
Detroit 12.77 (Offense) vs Green Bay 14.17 (Offense) — Lower is better. Detroit is more efficient at converting yards into points.
Yards Per Carry:
Detroit: 5.11 yards per rush (2nd best in NFL)
Green Bay: 4.0 yards per rush
Detroit Defense Allows: 3.86 yards per rush
Green Bay Defense Allows: 3.89 yards per rush
Passing Efficiency:
Green Bay: 10.78 yards per pass
Detroit: 10.71 yards per pass
Detroit Defense Allows: 10.87 yards per pass
Green Bay Defense Allows: 8.29 yards per pass
Overall Offensive Scoring:
Detroit: 29.64 points per game (2nd in NFL)
Green Bay: 23.91 points per game (13th in NFL)
Turnover Differential:
Detroit: -0.36 (near neutral)
Green Bay: -0.45 (slight turnover disadvantage)
Detroit holds advantages in the categories that matter most in tight NFC North battles: rushing efficiency, overall offensive scoring, and point-conversion efficiency. The Lions are the 2nd-ranked scoring offense in the league, while Green Bay ranks 13th. That’s a fundamental difference in offensive capability.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The drop from -3 to -2.5 tells us early action favored Green Bay, but the sharper money is backing Detroit at home. Classic Thanksgiving script: public grabs the underdog narrative, sharp money backs the more efficient team. The total moved from 48.5 to 49, which makes sense given Detroit’s high-powered offense and Green Bay’s ability to move the ball in spurts.
Josh Jacobs’ status adds volatility. If he’s ruled out, this line could tick back toward -3, as it would force Green Bay into a backup running back situation. That said, the Packers have shown they can execute without him, which limits the impact of his absence.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Detroit | Green Bay | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 12.77 | 14.17 | Lions |
| Yards Per Rush | 5.11 | 4.0 | Lions |
| Yards Per Pass | 10.71 | 10.78 | Packers (slight) |
| Points Per Game | 29.64 (2nd) | 23.91 (13th) | Lions |
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 101.73 | 139.8 | Lions Defense |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 210.55 | 96.45 | Packers Defense |
| Turnover Differential | -0.36 | -0.45 | Lions (slight) |
Detroit’s edge is clear in the categories that drive game outcomes: offensive point generation, rushing efficiency, and defensive run-stopping. Green Bay has a slight advantage in yards per pass and significantly better pass defense (allowing only 96.45 passing yards — exceptional). The Packers’ secondary is elite, but that strength doesn’t offset Detroit’s offensive firepower and rushing dominance.
When one team is 2nd in the NFL in points per game and the other is 13th, that’s the game’s most important stat. Detroit’s 29.64 PPG advantage over Green Bay’s 23.91 PPG is approximately 6 points per game — meaning if Detroit plays their standard game and Green Bay plays theirs, the Lions should win by approximately that margin.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
This isn’t the Week 1 matchup. Detroit has established itself as an elite offensive team, ranking 2nd in the NFL in points per game. The Lions’ rushing attack at 5.11 yards per carry exploits a Packers run defense that allows 3.86 yards per carry. Green Bay’s defense excels against the pass (8.29 yards allowed per attempt) but struggles to contain the ground game — a critical weakness against Detroit’s attack-first approach.
Green Bay will need exceptional defensive execution and efficient drive management to keep pace. The Packers’ passing attack is competent (10.78 yards per pass), but without establishing early offensive rhythm, they’ll fall behind the chains and predictability sets in. Detroit’s defense will key on stopping the pass, and Green Bay may be forced into less efficient play-calling.
The fundamental gap is simple: Detroit scores 29.64 points per game and Green Bay scores 23.91 points per game. If Detroit executes at their standard level on Thanksgiving, the 5.73 point per-game scoring gap suggests a decisive Lions victory. The 2.5-point spread appears appropriately positioned for a home game with minimal value on either side unless you believe one team significantly underperforms their season baseline.
Prediction
Detroit Lions 28, Green Bay Packers 20
Best Bets
⭐⭐⭐ Detroit Lions -2.5 (-105) — Elite offensive efficiency and rushing advantage should translate into a home victory. The Lions’ 5.73 point per-game scoring advantage (29.64 vs 23.91) aligns with the spread. Lions execute their standard gameplan and win comfortably.
⭐⭐ Over 49 (-110) — Detroit averages 29.64 points per game. Even if Green Bay holds to their 23.91 average, that’s approximately 53.55 combined points. Given Detroit’s likely possession advantage through superior rushing efficiency and field position control, an over script is natural.
⭐ Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD (-200) — Detroit’s rushing attack averages 5.11 yards per carry. Gibbs is the primary ball carrier in goal-line and red zone situations. With the Lions projected to control possession and score 28+ points, Gibbs will see multiple scoring opportunities.
Game Flow Projection: Detroit establishes the running game early, controls the line of scrimmage, and dictates pace. Green Bay plays from behind and is forced into passing situations. The Packers generate explosive plays through the air but lack the sustained drives to keep pace with Detroit’s offensive output. If Detroit avoids self-inflicted wounds (penalties, turnovers), they control both the game and total.
KEY_ANGLE: Detroit’s 5.73 point per-game scoring advantage creates a structural edge that the current 2.5 point spread doesn’t fully capture. The Lions’ rushing efficiency (5.11 YPC vs 4.0 for GB) and overall offensive scoring (2nd in NFL vs 13th) drive the outcome more than any single metric.
