RBD’s WF1 model flags a “wrong favorite” setup—plus AFC vs NFC angles, schedule strength, and injury notes—shaping our ATS lean
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Bucs – NFL Prediction
It wasn’t one of the easiest wins I’ve had all season (in fact, my bet was losing with only about 30 seconds left in the game) but Cin/Chi was easily one of the most exciting wager I’ve made this year.
And in the end it turned out well as the ‘Da Bears put a little green in my pocket.
The narrow win does not change my confidence in the handicapping model I used to make the play. Chicago was up by more than two TD’s with only 4 minutes left in the game, so the play was performing as expected.
And I like to stick with what works, so I’m back to the same model this week.
WF1 (my primary handicapping method for identifying games where the Book’s supposedly made the Wrong Team the Favorite) says the Patriots should be the Favorite over the Bucs on Sunday.
WF1 has a record of 16-28, all games.
That’s a 63% Fade.
On Rd teams, the record is 13-19.
That’s a 59% Fade.
And when it’s an AFC team as the Fav over an NFC team, WF1 has a record of 2-7.
That’s a Fade of 77%.
Like last week’s game with Cin/Chi, the NE/TB game is also another AFC vs NFC contest.
Three weeks ago the NFC held a 26-12, 68% edge, ATS, against the AFC.
Two weeks ago the AFC went 7-1 ATS, making the overall record 27-19.
Still a playable edge at 58%.
Last week, the NFC gained back some of that lost ground, going 2-0 ATS.
The overall record now is 29-19, giving NFC backers a 60% edge against the spread.
Some bettors dismiss AFC vs NFC as a meaningless stat.
My response to that?
It’s estimated that 95-98% of all sports bettors lose.
Me, personally?
I don’t weigh AFC vs NFC as heavily as I weigh other factors when making my buying decisions.
BUT . . . sports betting is like chess.
The Books are your opponent.
And when I’m looking over the chess board I want to see every angle before I make my move. That’s why I know AFC vs NFC stats.
And why I share them with you.
Within the 29-19 NFC vs AFC record mentioned above, NFC Hm Favs (like TB this weekend) are 7-6.
Not a huge edge, but still a winning record.
The 29-19 ATS record is league wide, encompassing all teams.
For a team specific view:
NE is 3-0 SU vs the NFC, 2-1 ATS.
But those wins came against two teams with losing records (New Orleans and Atlanta) and one team who’s just one game over .500, Carolina.
The 6-2 first place Tampa Bay Bucs are a whole different animal.
TB is 2-0 SU vs the AFC, 1-1 ATS.
The two wins came against Houston and the Jets, so not much to brag about there.
On paper, New England seems to have the edge. They’re a perfect 4-0 on the Rd, SU and ATS, while TB is 2-1 SU at Hm and just 1-2 ATS.
The Patriots are relatively healthy, while the Bucs are without one of the key cogs in their machine, Mike Evans, and likely to be missing another one with Godwin.
I’m not expecting that coming off their bye week is going to get me much of an advantage. The Bucs are 1-2 SU in their three years under Bowles as head coach, and the only win came last year against the Giants, who finished the season at 3-12.
So we’re not exactly talking Andy Reid here.
I have some strong stats backing me, but I also have a strong hunch going into this one.
My hunch is that New England is overrated.
Yes, the Patriots are 4-0 on the Rd, but let’s take a closer look at those four W’s:
Miami (2-7), Tenn (1-8), NO (1-8), Buffalo (6-2.)
The only quality win was Buffalo.
The other three came against two last place teams and a team that would be in last place if it wasn’t for the woeful Jets. Their combined record is 4-23.
Still impressed?
Not me.
But maybe I’m biased because I’ll have money on Tampa Bay this weekend.
How about we go look at an independent source, like the Massey ratings.
A quick check to see what Mr. Massey thinks, and…
well, well well, what do you know, he has Tampa Bay with the 9th toughest schedule in the NFL.
New England?
The Pats are at 32.
Someone remind me – how many teams are there in the NFL?
But maybe Mr. Massey is biased, too.
Let’s check another source.
What does Mr. Sagarin think?
He has Tampa Bay ranked 8th for the toughest schedule.
New England?
The Pats are 32nd.
Remind me again – how many teams are in the NFL?
New England has only played two teams with a winning record. They beat Buffalo, and lost to Pittsburgh.
They also lost to the Raiders.
The 2-7 last place Raiders.
Like I said, the 6-2 first place Bucs are an entirely different animal than the losing teams the Patriots have been taking advantage of.
And on Sunday I’ll be watching them and rooting for a little Mayfield Magic.
Thoughts on When to Buy
The line opened at TB -2′, and that’s where it’s still at, all across the board.
My take on this one is that as we get closer to kickoff, smart money is going to come on the Bucs.
The question is – will it be “right” money.
My play:
TB -2′
Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-3
Review: ‘Da Bears.
