The Ravens and Bengals meet for the second time in three weeks, and while the 32-14 Thanksgiving scoreline is fresh in everyone’s memory, the betting market tells a different story. With Baltimore sitting at 6-7 and fighting for their playoff lives, this Week 15 showdown presents a classic “bounce-back” spot. We analyze the rushing disparity and red-zone stats to determine if the Ravens can exploit Cincinnati’s defensive weaknesses this time around.
Opening Setup
This Week 15 matchup between Baltimore and Cincinnati comes with a wrinkle newer bettors should pay close attention to: these teams just played each other on Thanksgiving, and Cincinnati won convincingly, 32–14. When matchups happen this close together, the most recent meeting often shapes public perception more than it should, and that can influence how the betting market reacts.
Despite the loss two weeks ago, Baltimore enters as a 2.5-point road favorite. That’s an early signal that oddsmakers still trust Baltimore’s overall profile more than what happened on a single national-television stage. At 6–7, the Ravens are still in the playoff race. Cincinnati, at 4–9, is playing for momentum and an opportunity to disrupt a division rival’s postseason path.
The main question is whether the Thanksgiving result reflects a meaningful shift in how these teams match up, or simply a game where Baltimore didn’t execute at its usual level. Understanding that distinction is key to evaluating this rematch.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, December 14
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
TV: CBS
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Ravens -2.5 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 51.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Ravens -145 / Bengals +125 | – |
Quick Translation: Baltimore must win by three or more to cover the spread. The total of 51.5 asks whether the combined score will finish above or below that number. The moneyline prices Baltimore as the favorite, meaning a higher risk for a smaller return, while Cincinnati pays more because they’re the underdog.
Line Movement Analysis
The most notable aspect of this line is its stability. After an 18-point loss, many newer bettors expect the next line to swing toward Cincinnati, but that hasn’t happened. When a team wins big and the line still favors the other team, it usually indicates the market views the previous matchup as an outlier.
This is a good time to introduce the concept of “reverse line movement.” It occurs when public betting flows in one direction, but the line doesn’t move that way — often because sharper bettors are backing the opposite side. In this case, the lack of movement toward Cincinnati suggests professional bettors believe Baltimore is better positioned than the Thanksgiving score indicates.
Key Matchups
Looking at efficiency metrics helps clarify where each team currently stands:
Points per play: Baltimore 0.410 vs Cincinnati 0.489 allowed
Yards per play: Baltimore 5.6 vs Cincinnati 6.3 allowed
Third-down conversion: Baltimore 37.74% vs Cincinnati 47.83% allowed
Cincinnati’s defense enters this game ranking last in yards per play allowed and near the bottom in third-down defense. Yet they performed well on Thanksgiving. When a unit that has struggled all season suddenly plays above its normal range, it’s usually safer to trust the larger sample of season-long performance rather than a single data point.
That’s why Baltimore’s offensive potential remains very much in play for this rematch.
Why Smart Bettors Like Baltimore
- A Motivational Bounce-Back Spot: When teams are still in playoff contention and come off a nationally televised loss, they typically respond with sharper execution the following week.
- A Rushing Matchup That Still Favors Baltimore: The Ravens average 5.0 yards per carry, one of the top marks in the league. Cincinnati allows 5.2 yards per carry, which ranks near the bottom. That fundamental gap didn’t disappear just because the first meeting went poorly for Baltimore.
- Red Zone Advantages: Baltimore scores touchdowns on 44.90% of its red-zone trips, while Cincinnati allows touchdowns on 64.29% of theirs. Over time, these differences tend to show up on the scoreboard.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Ravens -2.5 (-110)
If you’re evaluating the full body of work rather than the most recent meeting, Baltimore still maintains advantages in running efficiency, defensive consistency, and late-down performance. When a team’s worst performance occurs on a high-visibility stage, it often pushes the public toward the wrong side of the rematch.
Secondary Consideration: Under 51.5
If Baltimore leans on its ground game, this matchup could feature longer possessions and fewer total drives. That type of game script generally supports the under, especially if the Ravens are able to control tempo.
What to Watch For
- Baltimore’s ability to establish the run early — a key indicator of how the game may unfold.
- Joe Burrow’s mobility, particularly with his recent toe issue — it can affect pressure avoidance and third-down efficiency.
- Turnovers — Cincinnati’s Thanksgiving performance was aided by timely takeaways, which are difficult to rely on game-to-game.
- Live betting opportunities — early leads can create value on adjusted totals or spreads.
Bottom Line Summary
The betting market appears to view Thanksgiving as an outlier rather than a blueprint. When evaluating fundamentals, Baltimore still holds advantages in the areas that typically decide games: running the ball, controlling pace, and performing efficiently in the red zone. Those strengths don’t disappear because of one off-night.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 20.
