The betting market has slashed the total by six points as both teams prepare for potential starts from Tyler Huntley and Malik Willis. Bryan Bash investigates if the “Derrick Henry vs. Josh Jacobs” ground battle will keep this game well below the 40.5 threshold.
Market Analysis: Quarterback Uncertainty Keeps This Game Compressed
The market opened Green Bay laying 3 points (BetAnything) at home and never moved. Despite uncertainty surrounding both starting quarterbacks, the number stayed anchored. That tells you the volatility is already baked in. Once the quarterback questions are accounted for, this is being priced as a near pick’em with Lambeau Field providing the separator.
The total settling at 40.5 reinforces the same conclusion. That number assumes backup quarterback play and conservative sequencing on both sides. For a Ravens team that has gone over in 9 of 15 games this season, the market made a decisive adjustment and stopped there.
Public focus has centered on Lamar Jackson’s back injury and Jordan Love’s concussion status. The market acknowledged both and refused to overreact. Green Bay’s December home field is respected, but not inflated, which keeps this game tightly compressed.
Game Information Box
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers, Week 17
When: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 27, 2025
Where: Lambeau Field
TV: Peacock
Point spread: Ravens +3 (-110) / Packers -3 (-110)
Money line: Ravens (+140) / Packers (-165)
Total: 40.5 (Over/Under -110)
How the Market Is Treating the Uncertainty
If quarterback news was expected to swing this game, it already would have. The spread held firm because the matchup is being evaluated through team structure and coaching rather than individual star power.
The total staying locked at 40.5 confirms the expected game script. Backup quarterbacks compress playbooks, reduce explosive attempts, and force teams into run-heavy, field-position football.
The under is where discipline shows up. December conditions in Green Bay, combined with potential backup quarterbacks, consistently lead to stalled red-zone drives and field goal attempts rather than touchdowns.
The spread remains balanced because clarity hasn’t arrived — and may not. When markets wait instead of reacting, it’s a sign the number already reflects the risk.
Coaching Matchup & Game Script
John Harbaugh has navigated must-win December games with backup quarterbacks before. If Tyler Huntley starts, Baltimore’s plan becomes straightforward: heavy rushing volume, controlled passing, and zero tolerance for mistakes.
Matt LaFleur faces a similar challenge if Malik Willis is under center. The objective won’t be creativity — it will be protection. Expect an emphasis on ball control, manageable third downs, and avoiding negative plays.
The coordinator matchup tilts slightly toward Baltimore’s flexibility. Todd Monken has adjusted systems mid-season before, while Mike Macdonald’s defense continues to generate pressure — exactly the type of environment that challenges inexperienced quarterbacks.
This game won’t be decided by explosive plays. It will be decided by who controls tempo and avoids self-inflicted damage.
Advanced Team Performance Context
Green Bay’s defense has quietly been strong at home, ranking 6th in opponent points per play (0.328) while allowing just 20.2 points per game. That efficiency matters more than raw scoring totals in games like this.
Baltimore’s rushing attack remains elite. They average 5.2 yards per rush (1st in the NFL) and 147.9 rushing yards per game (3rd), giving them the ability to dictate tempo regardless of who starts at quarterback. Red-zone execution has been an issue at 45.28% (30th), but Derrick Henry’s presence stabilizes goal-line situations.
Green Bay’s offense leads the league in third-down conversion at 50.27%, a trait that shortens games and bleeds clock when paired with conservative play-calling. Their red-zone touchdown rate of 58.93% (14th) points toward field goals rather than separation.
Turnover margin is essentially a wash. Baltimore sits at -0.1 per game while Green Bay is at -0.14. What matters more is Baltimore’s 1.5 giveaways per game (26th), which introduces volatility — the one variable that can swing a low-total game quickly.
Key Player Focus
If Lamar Jackson can’t go, Tyler Huntley brings system familiarity and mobility, but limited passing ceiling. Baltimore’s offense shrinks, but it doesn’t collapse.
Jordan Love’s availability determines Green Bay’s ceiling, not the script. Malik Willis changes how the Packers operate, not what they’re trying to accomplish.
Derrick Henry is the most reliable offensive piece on the field. Averaging 5.0 yards per carry with 1,253 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns, his volume matters more than efficiency in a game built around patience.
Josh Jacobs’ knee and ankle injuries add uncertainty for Green Bay’s ground game, while Emanuel Wilson’s recent production provides depth if Jacobs is limited.
Venue & Environment
Lambeau Field in late December rewards discipline. Cold temperatures and potential wind reduce margin and punish mistakes.
This environment doesn’t create chaos — it amplifies inefficiency.
Bryan Bash’s Multi-Angle Strategy
Primary Investment: Under 40.5 (-110) – 2 Units
This setup checks every box for a compressed game. Backup quarterbacks, conservative coaches, December conditions, and playoff-level urgency all push scoring downward. The number already accounts for that, and it still isn’t low enough.
High-Value Alternative: Ravens +3 (-110) – 1.5 Units
Baltimore’s run-game leverage and Harbaugh’s experience keep them live as road dogs. If Jackson plays at all, the value improves immediately. If he doesn’t, the game stays close by design.
Player Props Portfolio
Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts: Volume over efficiency in a control-based script
Josh Jacobs Under 72.5 Rushing Yards: Injury concerns and uncertain workload
Tyler Huntley Under 185.5 Passing Yards: Playbook compression and weather considerations
Live Betting Strategy
Watch red-zone outcomes and early third-down efficiency. Field goals instead of touchdowns reinforce under value. If Baltimore commits an early turnover and totals spike, look to re-enter the under at a better number.
