Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Week 18 NFL Picks & Predictions
It all comes down to this. The legendary AFC North rivalry reaches a fever pitch at Acrisure Stadium as the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers battle for the division title and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. With Lamar Jackson returning and the Steelers missing a critical offensive weapon, our expert analysis breaks down the point spread and why the efficiency gap makes Baltimore the primary ATS pick for the final regular-season game of 2026.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
Time: 8:20 PM ET
Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | Total: 40.5
The Rundown
The stakes are clear in this AFC North finale. Winner takes the division and the No. 4 seed. Loser’s season ends. The market opened Baltimore -3 and has pushed to -3.5 at most sportsbooks, while the total has dropped from 42.5 to 40.5.
Baltimore holds a measurable efficiency edge, ranking higher in Points Per Play at 0.432 compared to Pittsburgh’s 0.405. Over a projected 11–12 drives per side, that gap alone translates to roughly four additional points if both teams play to expectation. That efficiency advantage sits at the core of this number.
Why Baltimore Has the Edge
The Ravens’ advantage shows up most clearly on early downs and in the run game. Baltimore leads the league in both rushing volume and efficiency, creating favorable down-and-distance situations throughout the game. Pittsburgh’s run defense allows 4.2 yards per carry, a matchup that favors Baltimore’s ability to control tempo.
Baltimore also converts third downs at a higher rate, supporting sustained drives and clock control. Pittsburgh’s clearest counter is turnover margin, where the Steelers rank among the league’s best. That keeps games close, but it’s also the least stable input week to week. If Baltimore protects the football, their efficiency profile becomes difficult to overcome.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: Baltimore 25.0 vs Pittsburgh 23.2
- Yards Per Point: Baltimore 13.22 off / 15.15 def vs Pittsburgh 12.95 off / 15.73 def
- Points Per Play: Baltimore 0.432 vs Pittsburgh 0.405
- Yards Per Play: Baltimore 5.7 vs Pittsburgh 5.3
- 3rd Down Conversion %: Baltimore 41.36% vs Pittsburgh 38.66%
- Red Zone TD %: Baltimore 47.46% vs Pittsburgh 59.57%
The rushing mismatch remains Baltimore’s most reliable advantage. The Ravens consistently generate positive early-down gains, while Pittsburgh struggles to establish balance on the ground. Without DK Metcalf available, the Steelers’ offense loses its primary vertical and spacing threat — Metcalf accounted for 148 yards on just seven receptions, averaging over 21 yards per catch. His absence compresses the field, making red zone efficiency harder to sustain.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The move from Baltimore -3 to -3.5 signals respected money backing the Ravens despite the road setting. The total dropping to 41 reflects both teams’ efficiency profiles and the historical tendency for this rivalry to suppress scoring. Movement through the key number of 3 suggests professional agreement with Baltimore’s edge, while the total accounts for a playoff-style script driven by defense and field position.
Pittsburgh’s recent offensive limitations and personnel constraints reinforce the market’s position. The number has not inflated further, acknowledging divisional familiarity and turnover variance, but the direction of movement remains consistent.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Baltimore | Pittsburgh | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 25.0 | 23.2 | Baltimore |
| Yards Per Point (Offense) | 13.22 | 12.95 | Pittsburgh |
| Points Per Play | 0.432 | 0.405 | Baltimore |
| Yards Per Play | 5.7 | 5.3 | Baltimore |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 41.36% | 38.66% | Baltimore |
| Red Zone TD % | 47.46% | 59.57% | Pittsburgh |
| Turnover Margin/Game | -0.1 | +0.7 | Pittsburgh |
Pittsburgh’s red zone efficiency edge is real on paper, but context matters. Without Metcalf’s ability to stretch coverage and create spacing, sustaining that efficiency becomes more difficult. Baltimore’s advantage in early-down success and drive sustainability remains the more predictive input.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
Prediction
Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 17
Best Bets
- ★★★ Baltimore -3.5 (-110) — Efficiency advantages compound over limited possessions.
- ★★ Under 40.5 (-110) — Market movement, rivalry history, and offensive constraints support a lower-scoring script.
Game Flow Projection: Baltimore controls tempo through the run game, reducing total possessions and forcing Pittsburgh into longer drives without explosive support. The Ravens’ efficiency edge shows over 11–12 drives, while Pittsburgh’s turnover capability keeps the game competitive into the second half. Absent short fields, Baltimore’s rushing and early-down success ultimately separate the teams.
