Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings – Week 10 NFL Picks
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Odds: Baltimore Ravens -4 (market near -4) | Total: 48.5–49
The Rundown
The market’s been steady near Ravens -4. Baltimore’s 28–6 over Miami popped on the scoreboard, but Minnesota’s 27–24 at Detroit with J.J. McCarthy back was the bigger signal for this matchup: steadier offense, defense holding up enough to make you think twice at a flat four.
Season profiles say the gap is modest. The Ravens are the better offense — 25.3 ppg (#12), 5.8 ypp (#8) — but the Vikings’ defense grades tighter than Baltimore’s on the full-season view — MIN Opp 23.3 ppg (#20), 5.3 ypp (#15) vs BAL Opp 27.0 ppg (#24), 5.7 ypp (#25). If this stays at 4, home field and situational execution can keep it inside the number.
Why Minnesota Has the Edge (to Cover)
Path is straightforward: survive early downs and make Baltimore play longer fields. Minnesota’s defense has been respectable on season rates, and Baltimore’s defense has been more beatable than reputation on the full-season line. The swing variable is protection — the Vikings’ QB sack rate 11.91% (#32) is a real risk — but if McCarthy gets enough clean snaps, Minnesota can trade explosives for chains at home.
The Numbers That Matter
- Offense (season): BAL 25.3 ppg (#12), 5.8 ypp (#8) • MIN 22.8 ppg (#18), 5.1 ypp (#23)
- Defense (season): MIN Opp 23.3 ppg (#20), 5.3 ypp (#15) • BAL Opp 27.0 ppg (#24), 5.7 ypp (#25)
- Run game edge (BAL): 5.2 yds/rush (#1), 135.5 rush yds/gm (#6) vs MIN Opp 4.2 yds/rush allowed (#16)
- Protection risk (MIN): 11.91% sack rate (#32)
- Third down (offense): BAL 40.22% • MIN 33.33%
- Red zone TD% (offense): BAL 51.85% • MIN 55.56%
- Time of possession %: BAL 47.69% • MIN 47.59% (basically even)
Head-to-Head Efficiency Snapshot
| Metric | Ravens | Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 25.3 | 22.8 | Ravens |
| Yards/Play | 5.8 | 5.1 | Ravens |
| Opp Points/Game | 27.0 | 23.3 | Vikings |
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.7 | 5.3 | Vikings |
| Rush Offense vs Opp Rush D | 5.2 yds/att | Opp 4.2 yds/att | Ravens (run edge) |
| QB Sack % (offense) | 10.34% | 11.91% | Ravens (less vulnerable) |
Market Read
Books have been comfortable around -4 with a total in the high 40s (48.5–49). If sharp money shows up, expect brief trips to -3.5 or -4.5, but the core rating implies a one-score script where protection and red-zone finishing decide it.
Game Flow Projection
Ravens lean on the run to keep schedule clean; Vikings counter with quick-game and play-action, trying to avoid obvious pass downs. If Minnesota stays out of third-and-forever, the home dog is live. If the sack rate shows up early, Baltimore’s run game can squeeze the tempo and lengthen fields.
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐ Minnesota Vikings +4 (-110) — Season-long defense profile + home field vs a Baltimore defense that’s been more permissive than the rep on full-season numbers.
- ⭐ Total at 48.5–49: Pass/Small Lean Under — Not a conviction play from this sheet alone; Under gets more interesting if early pressure forces shorter Vikings possessions.
Prediction
Baltimore Ravens 24, Minnesota Vikings 21 (Vikings cover +4)
