Saints vs Bears Preview: Week 7 Point Spread Pick
Opening Setup
Here’s what’s interesting about this Week 7 matchup — you’ve got a New Orleans Saints team at 1-5 that nobody expected much from this season, traveling to face a Chicago Bears squad at 3-2 that’s starting to find its identity under rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. For new bettors, this is exactly the type of spot where the betting public tends to overreact to recent trends, creating value opportunities for sharper money.
The Bears are riding a three-game winning streak and return home to Soldier Field for the first time since September 21st. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a 25-19 loss to New England at home, despite what many considered Spencer Rattler’s best professional performance. The key storyline here revolves around Chicago’s defense — generating turnovers at an elite clip — and whether New Orleans can exploit some glaring weaknesses in the Bears’ run defense.
Game Details
Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago
TV: FOX
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Bears -5 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 47.5 | O -105 / U -115 |
| Moneyline | Bears -240 / Saints +200 | – |
Quick Translation: The Bears are 5-point home favorites, meaning they need to win by at least 6 points to cover the spread. The total is set at 47.5 points — bet the over if you think both teams combine for 48+ points, under if it stays at 47 or fewer. The moneyline shows Chicago as heavy favorites at -240 (bet $240 to win $100), while Saints backers get +200 odds (bet $100 to win $200).
Line Movement Analysis
The lookahead total opened at 45.5 and quickly moved to 46.5 before settling at 47.5 — that’s sharp money recognizing scoring potential in this matchup. Here’s what “reverse line movement” means for beginners: when the line moves against the public betting percentage. If 70% of bets are on the Bears but the spread drops from -5.5 to -5, that tells us the smart money is backing New Orleans. The current 5-point spread suggests the market respects Chicago’s recent momentum while acknowledging the Saints aren’t as bad as their record indicates.
Key Matchups
The most critical battle happens when New Orleans has the ball on the ground. Chicago’s run defense ranks 31st in the NFL, allowing 156.4 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. That’s a massive problem against a Saints team that features Alvin Kamara, who’s coming off a solid performance against New England. The Bears’ defense has been masking those issues by forcing turnovers — they’ve generated 11 takeaways over their last three games — but they’re also allowing 6.5 yards per play, the worst mark in the league.
On the flip side, Chicago’s passing attack with Caleb Williams has been building chemistry with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. The Saints defense sits near the bottom third in efficiency metrics and has struggled in crucial situations. Williams should find success through the air, especially if D.J. Moore returns from injury.
Why Smart Bettors Like New Orleans
- Run Game Advantage — Kamara should feast against one of the league’s softest run defenses.
- Turnover Regression — Chicago’s 11 takeaways in three games are impressive, but that pace isn’t sustainable.
- Coaching Familiarity — Multiple Saints assistants have Bears ties, providing schematic advantages.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Saints +5 (-110) — The market is overvaluing Chicago’s recent winning streak while underestimating New Orleans’ ability to move the ball on the ground. This Bears defense has fundamental issues that three games of turnover luck can’t hide. In a game that should be decided by a field goal or less, getting five points with a competent Saints team offers excellent value.
Secondary Consideration: Over 47.5 (-105) also merits attention. Chicago’s defensive struggles and New Orleans’ balanced offense should lead to more scoring than this number suggests, especially with both quarterbacks showing better rhythm lately.
What to Watch For
- Early success for Kamara — if he breaks a big gain, consider a live bet on the Saints spread
- D.J. Moore’s health — his presence changes Chicago’s offensive ceiling
- Turnovers — if Chicago doesn’t create one early, their defensive cracks widen fast
- Wind conditions at Soldier Field — could influence the total
Bottom Line Summary
This line feels inflated based on Chicago’s recent success and New Orleans’ poor record. The underlying metrics suggest a much closer game, with the Saints possessing the ground attack to exploit Chicago’s biggest weakness. The Bears’ defense has been living on borrowed time with their turnover production, and regression is due. Smart money already pushed this total up, recognizing both teams’ offensive potential.
Final Score Prediction: Saints 26, Bears 24.
KEY_ANGLE: Saints’ run game exploits Chicago’s 31st-ranked run defense in a close road upset spot.
