Saints vs Bills Preview: Week 4 Mismatch in Buffalo
Opening Setup
Here’s what’s interesting about this Week 4 matchup – we’re looking at what might be the biggest spread of the entire NFL season. The 3-0 Buffalo Bills are hosting the winless New Orleans Saints, and the oddsmakers are laying a massive 16 points on Buffalo. For newer bettors, when you see a spread this large, it means Vegas believes one team is significantly better than the other. But in the NFL, anything can happen on any given Sunday.
The Saints are coming off an absolute disaster in Seattle, losing 44-13 in a game that was never competitive. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been rolling with Josh Allen looking like the MVP he was last season, averaging 34 points per game and showing zero turnovers through three weeks. The crazy part is, this feels like a classic trap game setup for the Bills.
Let’s be realistic – this matchup features two teams going in completely opposite directions, but that massive spread makes things very interesting for smart bettors.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, September 28
Time: 5:01 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
TV: CBS
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Bills -16 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 48 | -105/-115 |
| Moneyline | Bills -1500 / Saints +775 | – |
Quick Translation: Buffalo needs to win by more than 16 points to cover the spread. The total means both teams need to combine for more than 48 points for the over to hit. The moneyline shows Buffalo as a heavy favorite – you’d need to bet $1500 to win $100 on the Bills, while a $100 bet on New Orleans would pay $775.
Line Movement Analysis
This line opened around Bills -12.5 and has moved up to -16 in most spots, showing that early money came in on Buffalo despite the large number. When you see a line this big getting even bigger, it usually means sharp bettors aren’t afraid to lay the points with the superior team. However, reverse line movement would be if this line started dropping back toward 14 or 13 – that would signal smart money coming in on the Saints getting all those points.
Key Matchups
The most critical matchup is Josh Allen vs. the Saints’ secondary. New Orleans has allowed a staggering 70.8% completion rate and 118.9 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks through three games. Allen hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season while posting 755 passing yards and 5 touchdowns.
On the flip side, Spencer Rattler is 0-9 as an NFL starter and will face a Bills defense that held Miami to just 203 passing yards last week. Buffalo’s defense has forced at least one turnover in every game this season.
Why Smart Bettors Like New Orleans
- Massive Point Cushion — 16 points is a lot of margin for error, even for a bad team.
- Trap Game Potential — Bills coming off Thursday night game might be looking ahead.
- Garbage Time Factor — Saints can score late when Bills pull starters.
Line moves don’t scare us — we’ve got you covered with NFL picks against the spread.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: New Orleans Saints +16 (-110) — Look, the Saints are bad, but they’re not historically terrible. This feels like one of those spots where Vegas is daring you to take the huge number, and I’m willing to bite. Buffalo has everything to lose here and nothing to prove.
Secondary Consideration: The under 48 looks appealing. If Buffalo gets up big early, they’ll run the ball and kill clock in the second half.
What to Watch For
- Live betting opportunities if Saints keep it close early
- Weather conditions in Buffalo affecting the passing games
- Buffalo’s approach if they get a big lead – do they keep the gas pedal down?
- Saints’ effort level after getting embarrassed in Seattle
Bottom Line Summary
Buffalo is clearly the better team and should win this game going away. But 16 points is a massive number in the NFL, and the Saints are desperate for any kind of positive momentum. The market consensus has been pushing this line higher, but I think we’re getting value on New Orleans with all these points.
Final Score Prediction: Bills 31, Saints 17.
