New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins – Week 13 NFL Picks
A struggling Saints offense meets a rested Dolphins team laying -6. Rich Crew provides the essential handicapping breakdown, revealing why this number is “not inflated” and where to place your best bet.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Odds: Miami Dolphins -5.5 | Total: 42.5
The Sharp Take
Sometimes the market gives you a clear read, and this is one of those spots. Miami opened -5.5 and drifted to -6, which tells you books are comfortable pushing this toward the touchdown range. That’s not “public hype” movement—it’s confidence in the efficiency gap between these two teams.
The total dropping from 42 to 41.5 is just as important. The sharper bettors aren’t buying either offense as explosive or consistent. Both teams need long drives to score, and that usually pushes games toward slow, low-variance football.
The big storyline coming in is rookie Tyler Shough starting again for New Orleans, but the real story is much simpler: Miami is the more efficient football team, and that’s why they’re laying the number.
What the Efficiency Numbers Reveal
This is where the matchup really separates.
Yards Per Point (Offense):
- Miami: 14.62
- New Orleans: 19.79
That’s a massive gap. Miami needs five fewer yards to produce a point. Over 10–12 drives, that’s the entire difference between winning comfortably and sweating out every possession.
Yards Per Point Allowed (Defense):
- Miami: 14.31
- New Orleans: 12.69
The Saints get a small edge here, but that 1.6-yard defensive advantage doesn’t erase Miami’s offensive gap. When the better offense also has home field and extra rest, that edge matters even more.
The Quarterback Picture
Let’s be honest about what Shough has shown. He’s competitive, he’s tough, and he’s trying to stabilize the offense, but the production is what it is:
- 41.5% completions
- 829 passing yards
- 3 TD, 3 INT
- 81.1 passer rating
There’s nothing wrong with being a developing rookie—but that’s exactly what he is. And it’s tough asking that profile to win on the road against a rested defense.
Tua has his own turnover issues, but a 68% completion rate over 11 games tells you he’s operating at a far more stable level. Even a “B-minus” Tua game is still more efficient than anything the Saints have gotten from the position this season.
Recent Form and Context
Miami is fresh off a bye after winning three of their last four. They’ve dug out of a 1-6 hole and are actually playing decent situational football.
New Orleans? They’ve lost eight of their last nine against teams with winning records. They’re also 1-4 on the road. Layer in the rookie QB on short rest after a physical divisional game and you get a tough setup.
The Injury Lens
Alvin Kamara’s knee issue is a real concern. If he’s out—or even limited—the Saints lose the one player who consistently converts broken plays into chain-moving yards. Their offense becomes predictable, and Shough has to throw more than he should.
The Dolphins could get Austin Jackson back on the offensive line, and even modest improvement would help a unit that’s been inconsistent in protection.
Why the Line Makes Sense
Break down the matchup and the number lines up:
- Miami +5.17 yards-per-point offensive advantage
- New Orleans +1.62 defensive advantage
- Net: Miami +3.55 YPP
- QB edge: Miami
- Rest advantage: Miami
- Home field: Miami
- Injury stability: Miami
When you add all of that up, -5.5 to -6 is the correct number. It’s not inflated. It’s not a trap. It’s just the better team priced appropriately.
The Total’s Quiet Message
The slight move down from 42 to 41.5 reflects what anyone watching these teams already knows: both offenses grind for yards and struggle to put games away. Each side has to string together 9-10 play drives to score. That’s usually a recipe for unders unless turnovers spark short fields.
The Bottom Line
Miami isn’t elite, but they are better—and they have real advantages across the board. The Saints’ defense will compete, but their offense simply doesn’t finish enough drives to keep pace unless Miami hands them extra possessions.
This game should stay competitive early, but over four quarters the efficiency gap, home field, and QB experience edge make Miami the right side.
Prediction
Miami Dolphins 24, New Orleans Saints 17
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Miami Dolphins -6 — The offensive efficiency edge is too large to ignore.
- ⭐⭐ Under 41.5 — Slow-paced, grind-it-out football on both sidelines.
- ⭐ Miami Team Total Over 20.5 — Their efficiency supports a 22–24 point output.
Game Flow Projection
Look for Miami to control early tempo, especially with a rested roster. If they get the first score, this game tilts heavily in their favor as the Saints struggle to chase with a rookie quarterback.
New Orleans likely hangs around for a half, but over time Miami’s efficiency edge should show up in field position, sustained drives, and red-zone chances.
Key Angle
Miami’s 14.62 offensive yards-per-point vs New Orleans’ 19.79 is the matchup’s defining number. It’s the reason the spread is -6, and it’s the reason Miami closes out the game late.
