The Saints enter Nashville as 2.5-point favorites riding a three-game surge. Bryan Bash breaks down why the “yards-per-point” efficiency and New Orleans’ improved defensive play make them a strong ATS pick in this Week 17 clash.
Market Analysis: When Two Struggling Offenses Meet, Defense and Efficiency Matter
The betting market opened with New Orleans as a 2.5-point road favorite at Tennessee, and that number has held steady across most major books. This line represents a classic case where the market is betting recent form over season-long struggles – the Saints have won three straight while the Titans sit at 3-12 despite their upset of Kansas City’s backups last week.
What’s particularly telling is the total sitting at 39.5, one of the lowest we’ve seen all season. The market clearly expects a slugfest between two offenses that rank 29th and 30th in points per game respectively. The Saints average just 17.0 points while Tennessee manages 16.7, but the under has been cash for New Orleans bettors all season at 11-4.
The narrative driving public perception centers on Tennessee’s shocking 26-9 win over Kansas City, but sharp bettors understand the Chiefs rested key players and showed little competitive fire. Meanwhile, New Orleans has quietly put together their best football under rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, scoring 20+ points in three consecutive games after managing that feat just twice in their first 12 contests.
Both teams are officially eliminated from playoff contention, but the Saints appear to be playing with more purpose under head coach Kellen Moore’s simplified offensive approach. Tennessee, conversely, has the look of a team ready for the offseason despite last week’s aberration.
| Game Information | |
|---|---|
| Teams | New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans |
| When | 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 28, 2025 |
| Where | Nissan Stadium, Nashville |
| TV | CBS |
| Point Spread | Saints -2.5 (-120) / Titans +2.5 (+100) |
| Money Line | Saints -150 / Titans +130 |
| Total | 39.5 (Over/Under -110) |
Sharp Money Breakdown: Where Professional Bettors Are Investing
The most revealing market indicator in this matchup is how the total has behaved throughout the week. Despite this being one of the lowest totals of the season, the number has remained remarkably stable, suggesting professional money agrees with the market’s assessment of limited offensive firepower.
The spread stability tells a different story. While the Saints opened as 2.5-point favorites, there hasn’t been the typical sharp money movement we’d expect if sophisticated bettors saw significant value. This suggests the market efficiently priced New Orleans’ recent surge against Tennessee’s season-long struggles.
What’s particularly interesting is the contrast between the teams’ yards per point metrics. New Orleans requires 17.91 yards to generate each point – a mark that reflects their red-zone struggles at just 40.0% touchdown conversion rate, dead last in the NFL. Tennessee’s offense is slightly more efficient at 15.47 yards per point, but their 16.7 points per game average shows they simply can’t sustain drives consistently.
The respected money appears to be leaning toward game script and situational factors rather than making strong directional bets. New Orleans has shown better urgency and execution in recent weeks, while Tennessee’s upset of Kansas City came against a disinterested opponent resting players for the playoffs.
Sharp indicators suggest this total represents legitimate value for under bettors. Both defenses have tightened up lately – the Saints allowing just 13.0 points per game during their three-game winning streak, while Tennessee’s defense has forced more three-and-outs in recent weeks despite their poor season-long numbers.
Coaching Matchup & Strategic Analysis
Kellen Moore has simplified the Saints’ offensive approach since taking over playcalling duties, emphasizing Tyler Shough’s mobility and shorter, high-percentage throws. This conservative game-planning philosophy has paid dividends, with New Orleans averaging 4.8 yards per play – not spectacular, but consistent enough to sustain drives and control field position.
Moore’s defensive coordinator has also adjusted the scheme to better utilize their personnel, particularly in red-zone situations where they’ve been more aggressive with blitz packages. The Saints have allowed opponents to score touchdowns on just 54.76% of red-zone trips, a respectable 11th-ranked mark that could prove crucial in a low-scoring game.
Tennessee’s coaching staff faces the challenge of maintaining competitive intensity with nothing to play for beyond pride. Their offensive coordinator has leaned heavily on rookie quarterback Cam Ward’s arm talent, but the results have been inconsistent. Ward’s 60.16% completion rate ranks 29th among qualified passers, reflecting both accuracy issues and a receiving corps that struggles to create separation.
The Titans’ defensive approach emphasizes stopping the run first, allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt. Against a Saints ground game that manages just 3.6 yards per carry, this represents a clear strength-on-weakness matchup that could force New Orleans into predictable passing situations.
Clock management and fourth-down decision-making could play outsized roles in a game expected to be decided by narrow margins. Moore has shown more conservative tendencies in key spots, while Tennessee’s staff has been more aggressive on fourth down this season, converting 44.83% of attempts.
Advanced Team Performance Analysis
The efficiency numbers reveal why this total sits so low. New Orleans converts third downs at a respectable 39.80% clip, but their red-zone touchdown rate of 40.00% ranks dead last in the NFL. This means the Saints can move the ball between the twenties but consistently stall in scoring position – a recipe for field goals rather than touchdowns.
Tennessee’s offensive metrics paint an even bleaker picture. Their 32.02% third-down conversion rate ranks last in the league, while their 4.4 yards per play average indicates an offense that rarely threatens explosive gains. The Titans’ saving grace has been slightly better red-zone efficiency at 56.67%, but they simply don’t reach scoring position often enough to matter.
Defensively, New Orleans has shown marked improvement during their winning streak. They’re allowing just 4.9 yards per play over the season, ranking 7th nationally, and their pass defense limits opponents to 6.9 yards per attempt. The Saints force turnovers at a solid rate with 1.4 takeaways per game, creating short fields that help their struggling offense.
Tennessee’s defense allows 5.7 yards per play, ranking 26th, but they’ve been more competitive at home where they limit explosive plays more effectively. Their 7.71% sack rate ranks 8th in the NFL, suggesting they can generate pressure on Shough if he holds the ball too long.
Turnover margins could prove decisive in a low-scoring affair. New Orleans has been neutral at -0.2 per game, while Tennessee sits at -0.3. Both teams protect the ball reasonably well but lack the takeaway ability to create game-changing short fields.
Special teams efficiency adds another layer of complexity. Tennessee’s return game ranks among the league’s best, averaging 17.4 yards per punt return, which could provide field position advantages in a game where every yard matters.
Key Player Impact & Injury Analysis
Tyler Shough’s development has been the catalyst for New Orleans’ late-season surge. The rookie quarterback has completed 66.54% of his passes while throwing just one interception in three starts. His mobility adds a dimension the Saints lacked earlier in the season, though he’s averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, indicating a conservative approach.
Cam Ward represents Tennessee’s best offensive weapon, but his inconsistency has been problematic. The rookie has shown flashes of arm talent but struggles with accuracy on intermediate routes. His 5.8 yards per attempt ranks 31st among qualified passers, reflecting both his own limitations and a receiving corps that provides little help.
The Saints’ injury report shows several key players listed as questionable, including running back Alvin Kamara, who has been their most reliable offensive weapon. His potential absence would force more reliance on Shough’s arm, which plays into Tennessee’s defensive strength of limiting passing yards.
Tennessee’s defensive front, led by Jeffery Simmons, has generated consistent pressure despite the team’s struggles. Their ability to affect Shough’s timing could prove crucial in a game where both offenses figure to face challenging conditions.
Venue Factor & Environmental Analysis
Nissan Stadium has not provided much home-field advantage for Tennessee this season, where they’ve managed just one win in eight tries. The venue’s open-air design can create challenging conditions when weather becomes a factor, though current forecasts suggest manageable conditions for Sunday’s contest.
The artificial turf surface typically favors faster-paced games, but both offenses lack the explosive capability to take advantage. New Orleans has actually performed better on the road this season with a 4-3 against-the-spread record away from the Superdome.
Tennessee’s crowd factor has been minimal given the team’s struggles and lack of playoff implications. The Saints should face a relatively neutral environment, which could actually benefit their young quarterback making just his fourth professional start.
Travel logistics favor New Orleans slightly, as the flight from Louisiana to Nashville is relatively short with no significant time zone adjustments. Both teams are coming off standard rest, eliminating any scheduling advantages.
Bryan Bash’s Multi-Angle Strategy
Primary Investment: Under 39.5 (-110) – 2 Units
The numbers don’t lie in this matchup. Two offenses ranking 29th and 30th in scoring face defenses that have shown improvement in recent weeks. New Orleans’ red-zone touchdown rate of 40% means they’ll settle for field goals even when they do generate drives, while Tennessee’s 32.02% third-down conversion rate suggests long, grinding possessions will stall before reaching scoring position.
The market set this total appropriately, but the recent trends suggest even 39.5 points might be optimistic. Both teams have incentive to play conservative, mistake-free football, and neither has the offensive firepower to overcome early deficits with explosive scoring drives.
High-Value Alternative: Saints -2.5 (-120) – 1.5 Units
While the offensive numbers favor neither team significantly, New Orleans has shown better organizational focus during their three-game winning streak. Kellen Moore’s simplified approach has given Shough confidence to manage games without forcing risky throws, while Tennessee has the look of a team ready for vacation despite last week’s Chiefs upset.
The Saints’ defensive improvements during their winning streak – allowing just 13.0 points per game – suggest they can limit Tennessee’s already-challenged offense while grinding out enough points to cover a short spread.
Supporting Play: Saints Team Total Under 20.5 (-115) – 1 Unit
New Orleans has scored 20+ in three straight games, but Tennessee’s defense at home has been more competitive than their season numbers suggest. The Saints’ red-zone struggles mean they’ll likely need multiple scoring drives to reach 21 points, and their conservative approach under Moore suggests they’ll take what the defense gives them rather than pushing for explosive plays.
Live Betting Strategy:
Monitor first-quarter scoring closely. If this game starts 0-0 or 3-0 after the opening period, live under opportunities should emerge at inflated numbers. Conversely, if either team manages an early touchdown, live overs might provide value as the market overreacts to temporary offensive success.
Pay attention to third-down conversion rates early. Both teams struggle in these situations, and whichever side shows better efficiency on money downs could create separation in what figures to be a close, grinding affair.
KEY_ANGLE: Under cashes with two red-zone challenged offenses and improved recent defensive play from both sides.
