San Francisco 49ers(6-3SU,6-3 ATS) vs.New Orleans Saints(7-2SU,6-3 ATS)
NFL Week 11
Date and Time: November 17, 4:25 PM E
Where: Superdome
TV: FOX
by JeffHochman, Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:SF +3/N.O. -3
Over/Under Total: 48
This could be a possible NFC Championship gamepreview when the San Francisco 49erstravel South to take on the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans is coming off that impressive victory on Sunday night defeating the Cowboys 49-17 as 6-point home chalk. The Saints outgained Dallas by 432 yardsthoroughlydominating the game. The Saints are an impressive 7-2 ITS (in the stats) this season. San Francisco is comingoff its first setback in almost two months. The 49ers werelethargicin losing 10-9 as 6-point home favorites to the Carolina Panthers. San Francisco was outgained by 99 yards and are just 4-5 ITS this season after going 13-3 ITS last year.
What happened to the 49ers offense last week? They were held to three Field Goals by the Carolina Panthers. This is a team that managed to score at least 31 points in each of their previous five games. San Francisco is ranked 4th in rushing, averaging 148 yards per game on the ground. On defense, the 49ers are ranked 6th overall and 12th against the run, holding teams to 105 yards per game. The Saints are ranked No. 2 in total offense, second in scoring and seventh in total defense. Rob Ryan has turned around a defense that was ranked No. 32 last season. The Cowboys let another good coach leave. Way to go, Jerry!
New Orleans is 5-0 SU at home this year, with an average margin victory of 20 points. The Saints have also covered the spread in 20 of their previous 24 home games. Those are numbers that are hard to bet against especially since the 49ers are just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games against the Saints. The 49ers have won the last two games though, They won that epic playoff game two years ago, than again last year by a 31-21 score. The Saints defense is much improved and have been waiting for this game all season. Don’t expect superior special teams play in this game. The Saints are ranked No. 23 and the 49ers are ranked No. 16. Both teams are struggling in tackling on special teams and as a result the opposition is starting in great fieldposition. This could lead to a higher-scoring game. The biggest mismatch will be on the offensive line. The 49ers do not look good at times and are ranked No. 26 while the Saints are ranked No. 4. Badoffensiveline play will be the 49ersAchillesheel goingforward. It’s another reason why Colin Kaepernick stats are down this season compared to his rookie year.
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Drew Brees has completed 74.4 percent of his passes and averaging 367 passing yards at home this season. He also has thrown 18 touchdowns with just 2 interceptions in the Superdome this year. Those numbers might be difficult to reach as the 49ers are ranked fourth in the league allowing 17.2 points per game and have yielded an average of just 11.8 in six games since allowing 28 per contest over the first three. The biggest issue that the 49ers will face is trying to get its offense back on track against a Saints team that isright behind the 49ers allowing an average of 18.1 points per game. The Saints defense is even better at home were the crowd noise becomes a major factor.
The 49ers are 20-7-3 in their last 30 games following a ATS loss. TheSaints are 5-0 ATS in their 5 games in Week 11. The Over is 11-5 in the Saints last 16 home games. The Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread:New Orleans Saints -3 & Over 48
The 49ers are not as good as people think right now. The Saints are at home and a team on a mission.
