RBD breaks down a rare forced NFL betting pick, explaining why the numbers, trends, and situation still justify action.
Nothing.
For the second week in a row I have nothing strong for the NFL.
If you look at the picture accompanying this article you can see all the different handicap models I use, and every one of them is hovering around the .500 mark, leaving me with no edges to play ON or Fade AGAINST.
(Breakdown of numbers on the picture: top of page, left to right, Orange numbers are the record for WF1, home record on top, road record underneath that. Blue ink is WF2. Next are the records for my total models, T1 and T2, Ov on top, Un beneath that. Far right is the record for Hot/Cold Trend Reversal spot. Bottom of the page or the records for the answer spots and M/M, when I have matches.)
As you can see from the records I have nothing strong to use. Though you shouldn’t force bets that’s exactly what I’m going to do, for four reasons:
Why I’m Forcing a Bet
One – I don’t want to go two weeks in a row without an NFL pick.
Two – It’s the final week of the regular season, I gotta have some fun (yes, I know “gotta” isn’t a word. The Word Police are not welcome in my articles. I take poetic license; often.)
Three: The Bowl season is over. I can’t get any action there, so I have to turn to the NFL.
Four: I absolutely KICKED ASS in the Bowls, so I’m well-funded for any action I take this weekend (more on that in my next weekly review article.)
Homer Play
And as long as I’m going to force a bet, I might as well as be a homer and bet it on the only team in any sport that I still actually root for, the Seattle Seahawks.
It’s a good time for homer play, as Seattle is in one of the marquee matchups this weekend, a battle for first place in the NFC West.
It’s a primetime affair on Saturday night.
For all intensive purposes (yes, I know; JK) it’s a playoff game. The winner gets the division crown and the number one seed going into the playoffs.
Basic Numbers
Seattle 13-3 SU, San Fran 12-4
Both teams are 11-5 ATS.
No edges to exploit there.
Home and Road Splits
Seattle is 7-1 ATS on the Rd.
San Fran is 4-3 ATS at Hm.
I like that.
This Seahawk plays well in hostile environments, as evidenced by their 5-1 record as Rd Favs!
In their only role as a Hm Dog this season, the Niners lost to the Rams 42-26.
I like that, too.
Trends and Defense
Both teams have won six in a row, but only the 49’ers have also covered the spread six straight. And you know what I always say – the books don’t stay in business by paying everybody. They know that Joe Public loves to jump on winning trends, and the lines are adjusted for this. If I didn’t know there was no such thing as “trap lines” I’d say this is one of them.
In a playoff-like environment I always like to back the better defense. And looking at recent play the better D belongs to Seattle.
During their six game winning streak they’re only giving up about 14 PPG.
And for the season their point spread differential of 181 is more than double the Niners 76.
Yeah, I’m liking the numbers here.
What the Models Say
I’ve got nothing from my own handicapping models to help me out in this one.
WF1 says the Niners should be the Fav.
WF1 is 17-16 on Hm teams.
WF2 says the Niners should be the Fav.
WF2 is 27-30 on Hm teams.
When I have a match, when both say the wrong team is the Fav, the record is 8-8.
Like I said, I got nuttin.
Series History
The Niners have won six of their last seven meetings with the Seahawks (but most of those came with Pete Carroll as HC and Geno Smith at QB.) I’m going to need that pendulum to start swinging back the other way.
Earlier this season the 49ers were rude guests, coming into Seattle’s home and beating them 17-13. It’s time for the Seahawks to repay the favor.
When to Buy Recommendation
Six days ago.
That’s when I should have bought this game.
Seattle opened as a +1 Dog but the line has flip-flopped. Right now they’re sitting at -2.
In what should be a close game, I bought this line this morning, before it goes up to a full field goal.
My Play
Sea -2′
