Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals – Week 4 NFL Preview
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Thursday, September 26, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Odds: Arizona Cardinals -1 | Total: 43
The Rundown
We get a fascinating efficiency mismatch on Thursday night. The market opened Arizona -1.5, trimmed to -1, but the sharper side is already leaning Seattle. The total has held firm at 43, reflecting both defenses’ early-season strength. But the efficiency board shows a bigger gap than the line suggests: Seattle at 52.3 yards per point, Arizona dragging at 71.2. Over 12 drives, that’s almost two extra scoring chances for the Seahawks. The Cardinals haven’t cracked 300 total yards in any game, while Seattle just hung 44 on New Orleans. With James Conner sidelined, Arizona’s already shaky red zone efficiency (58%) takes another hit against a Seattle unit converting at 73%.
Why Seattle Has the Edge
Points per drive tells the story: Seattle sits 8th at 2.4, Arizona 21st at 1.9. That half-point edge adds up fast. Seattle’s explosive rate (14.2%) nearly doubles Arizona’s (7.8%), and their three-and-out rate (19%) is far better than the Cardinals’ 31%. When one team is consistently flipping field position with chunk plays and avoiding empty trips, the possession battle tilts their way.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Seattle 2.4 (8th) vs Arizona 1.9 (21st)
- Yards Per Play: Seattle 5.8 vs Arizona 4.6
- Success Rate: Seattle 49% vs Arizona 41%
- Drive Success Rate: Seattle 71% vs Arizona 58%
- Explosive Play Rate: Seattle 14.2% vs Arizona 7.8%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Seattle 19% vs Arizona 31%
Seattle’s advantage shows up in every situation. They’re converting 47% on third down; Arizona’s stuck at 35%. Red zone? Seahawks at 73%, Cardinals at 58%. Seattle sustains drives (5.8 plays per drive) while Arizona sputters at 4.2. Time of possession splits are lopsided too: 32:15 vs 27:45. The only sliver of daylight for Arizona is turnover margin, but their offense wastes the extra possessions they’ve created.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
Line ticked from -1.5 to -1, a quiet signal pros are leaning Seattle. Public tickets are backing Arizona at 62%, but handle favors Seattle 58% — classic sharp vs. square split. Total locked at 43 shows agreement it’s a defensive tilt. But Conner’s injury hasn’t been fully priced in, and if this creeps through zero, Seattle at +3 (if it ever pops) would be a premium number.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Seattle | Arizona | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.4 | 1.9 | Seattle |
| Success Rate | 49% | 41% | Seattle |
| Explosive Play Rate | 14.2% | 7.8% | Seattle |
| Drive Success Rate | 71% | 58% | Seattle |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 19% | 31% | Seattle |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 73% | 58% | Seattle |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 24 | 1 per 21 | Arizona |
Seattle checks every efficiency box. Early downs (52% vs 38%), late-half execution (75% vs 33%), and goal-to-go scoring (85% vs 71%) all lean their way. Add in an extra 1.2 drives per game from pace, and the Seahawks project multiple scoring edges even if Arizona holds serve on turnovers.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
The market’s hanging a near pick’em, but the efficiency chart says Seattle by more than a field goal. Arizona’s offense is stuck in neutral, and without Conner, they’re even less likely to cash red zone trips. Seattle’s explosive edge plus drive sustainability creates too many paths to cover. Short-week prep also leans Seahawks, who were able to rest starters while Arizona played deep into the fourth last week.
Prediction
Seattle Seahawks 24, Arizona Cardinals 16
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Seattle Seahawks +1 (-110) — Efficiency dominance across the board.
- ⭐⭐ Under 43 (-110) — Arizona’s offensive ceiling too low without Conner.
Game Flow Projection: Seattle controls time of possession, generates 2–3 more scoring chances, and leans on explosive plays plus red zone execution to separate. Arizona would need +2 in turnovers and 65% red zone conversion to flip the script, neither trend showing up this season.
