Don’t shy away from the -7 spread! Bryan Bash reveals his high-confidence ATS pick and why Seattle’s run game makes them the clear best bet to cover.
Bryan Bash Betting Preview: Seahawks at Falcons – Live Dog? No. Live Under.
Market Read: Books Hung 7 and 44.5 for a Reason
Seattle walks into Atlanta as a full touchdown road favorite, and the line hasn’t blinked off -7. No cheap -6.5 to bait money, no -7.5 to tax the hype after a 26–0 shutout. Books drew a line in the turf and said, “This is the number.”
The total opened 44.5 and froze there too. That’s the interesting part. You’ve got an offense averaging 29.2 points per game, leading the league at 0.499 points per play and 6.0 yards per snap, and the market still won’t nudge this total up. That’s not passive. That’s intentional.
Seattle just blanked Minnesota and the public is ready to crown them an indoor-track offense. Atlanta sits at 4–8, just lost to the Jets, and hasn’t inspired confidence in anyone but fantasy degenerates riding Bijan Robinson. Yet the Falcons have lost four straight by seven or fewer, hanging around just enough to mess with tickets.
So why 44.5? Why not 46, 47, something that matches Seattle’s headline scoring?
Because the market isn’t buying the fireworks. It’s buying the script.
Game Information
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Date & Time: Sunday, December 7, 2025 – 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: FOX
Point Spread: Seattle -7 / Atlanta +7
Moneyline: Seattle -360 / Atlanta +280
Total: 44.5 (Over/Under -110)
Why the Market Isn’t Buying a Shootout
The public sees “Seattle 29.2 points per game” and mentally pre-loads the over. Sharps see something else: identity.
Seattle runs the ball more than anyone in the league. Their 51.14% rush rate is number one, and it’s not window dressing – it’s their personality. They’re happy to sit on leads, drain clock, and put teams in a headlock instead of a track meet.
Atlanta’s defense allows 4.5 yards per rush and teams run on them 46.47% of the time. That’s basically a neon sign for the Seahawks: “Come here, hand off the ball, and put our offense on ice.” Less possessions, shorter games, lower totals. That’s why 44.5 isn’t a mistake. It’s a message.
On the other side, Atlanta is putting up 20.3 points per game at 0.332 points per play. They can finish drives – 64.71% red zone touchdown rate is top ten – but they struggle to get there consistently. Just 334.7 yards per game and a 33.10% third-down rate (29th in the league) means they spend a lot of time punting.
When one team squeezes the clock and the other struggles to stay on the field, overs die quietly.
Coaches, Game Script, and Why Seattle Dictates Everything
Mike Macdonald didn’t fly across the country to trade shots with a 4–8 team. His Seattle defense ranks 3rd in opponent points per play (0.284) and 3rd in scoring defense at 18.1 allowed. They get off the field on third down (34.52% allowed) and they dictate how games are played.
Raheem Morris, meanwhile, is in evaluation mode. The Falcons are out of the race, playing for film, contracts, and pride. That’s a dangerous kind of loose… but it doesn’t magically fix a stale offense that lives on a couple of Bijan Robinson bursts and scattered Kirk Cousins drives.
The strategic matchup is clean: Seattle wants to run, control tempo, and play downhill with their defense. Atlanta needs Bijan to be a problem just to keep this thing respectable. That’s a tough life against a defense that’s 2nd in rushing yards allowed (88.8 per game) and gives up just 3.8 a carry.
The Numbers That Actually Matter
You can drown in data here, but a few splits tell the whole story:
- Seattle Offense: 29.2 points per game (3rd), 0.499 points per play (1st), 6.0 yards per play (4th)
- Atlanta Offense: 20.3 points per game, 0.332 points per play, 334.7 yards per game
- Seattle Defense: 18.1 points allowed (3rd), 0.284 points per play (3rd), 34.52% third-down rate allowed
- Atlanta Third Downs: 33.10% conversion (29th in NFL)
- Turnovers: Atlanta slightly ahead in margin (+0.3 vs -0.3), but Seattle generates more takeaways (1.5 vs 1.3)
That’s not the profile of a shootout. That’s the profile of a team that builds a working-man’s lead and puts you in a slow vice for four quarters.
Key Players: Ceiling vs. Reality
Sam Darnold is the hinge for Seattle. The 8.9 yards per attempt is real – best in the league – but so is the 3.35% interception rate, which slides him down near the bottom in ball security. The good news? When Seattle runs the ball and picks their spots, Darnold doesn’t have to be a hero. He just has to not be the reason tickets die.
Kirk Cousins is back for Atlanta, and that brings competence but not fireworks. He completed 63.6% in his last start, put up 24 points, and still lost. The ceiling is “solid, efficient, stuck in the low 20s” unless something breaks wide open.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the “get-right” candidate for Seattle’s passing game. Just 23 yards last week, his season low, against Minnesota. Atlanta is 8th in pass defense at 187.8 yards allowed per game, but they’ve bled underneath stuff and slot production. That’s JSN’s wheelhouse, and Seattle knows it.
Bijan Robinson is the only Falcon who scares you. He’s coming off 193 yards against the Jets, but this matchup is nothing like that one. Seattle’s front is legit, and if the Seahawks get up early, Atlanta won’t have the luxury of feeding him 20+ carries.
Venue & Schedule: No Excuses for Seattle
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a clean dome track: no wind, no rain, no excuses. If you’re better, you look better in this building. Crowd noise can pop here, but at 4–8, Atlanta’s not exactly bringing playoff energy.
Seattle has already shown they travel – 11–1 straight up on the road this season. This isn’t a “can they handle the flight?” question. It’s “do they show up locked in for another business trip?”
The 1:00 PM ET kickoff sometimes bothers West Coast teams. This version of Seattle has already answered that question. They’ve been cashing tickets all over the time zones.
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Bryan Bash’s Betting Card
Primary Investment – Seattle -7 (-110) – 2 Units
This number feels expensive at first glance, until you start matching strengths and weaknesses. Seattle owns both lines of scrimmage. They run it more than anyone, stop the run better than almost everyone, and have the better quarterback situation even with Darnold’s turnover risk.
Atlanta’s 29th-ranked third-down offense going into a buzzsaw defense is a problem that doesn’t fix itself because you’re at home. If Seattle gets to 24, it’s hard to draw a path where Atlanta keeps up without something fluky.
Books drew the line at -7 and let the public remember that 26–0 shutout however they want. I’m not betting the box score. I’m betting the matchup. Seattle covers the full seven.
High-Value Alternative – Under 44.5 (-110)
If you’re betting this over, you’re betting against Seattle’s personality.
The Seahawks are built to get a lead and suffocate the clock with a 51.14% rush rate. They don’t need to chase style points, especially on the road. Atlanta struggles to chain first downs, and Seattle’s defense is built to slam the door on teams exactly like this.
Between Seattle’s defensive ceiling, their run-heavy script when ahead, and Atlanta’s inconsistency sustaining drives, the most likely story is simple: comfortable Seahawks win under a lid. Think something in the 27–13 / 24–17 neighborhood.
Player Props Portfolio
Bijan Robinson Under Rush Yards (-114): The Jets matchup was a runway. This isn’t. Seattle’s front is legit, and their game script is worse for Bijan. If the Seahawks play from ahead – and the line says they should – Atlanta will be forced to lean on Cousins more than they’d like. That caps Bijan’s carry volume and his yardage ceiling.
Sam Darnold Under Pass TDs (-119): Darnold can play well and still leave this prop under. Inside the red zone, Seattle’s more than happy to finish drives on the ground and avoid unnecessary risk. With their run/pass tendencies and a favorite script, rushing scores make more sense than Darnold spraying darts all day.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over Receiving Yards (-116): Classic bounce-back spot. After a quiet day against Minnesota, JSN walks into a matchup where Atlanta’s defense has trouble with slot work and quick-hitting concepts. Seattle doesn’t need volume, just a few designed sequences to get him loose in space. One strong drive can push this one over.
Live Betting Strategy
First quarter tells you everything.
- If Seattle scores first and runs efficiently: Look to the live under. Macdonald will treat the rest of the game like a four-quarter slow bleed.
- If Atlanta jumps ahead: The live over and Falcons numbers become interesting. Seattle will have to open Darnold up more than they’d prefer, and that’s when variance shows up.
- Key tells: Seattle’s yards per carry and Atlanta’s third-down rate. If the Seahawks are over 4.5 a pop and the Falcons are under 30% on third down by halftime, you’re watching the script we handicapped: Seattle and the under, both live and echoing the pregame bets.
This isn’t a game to chase fireworks. It’s a game to trust identity, efficiency, and a road favorite that knows exactly how it wants to win.
