Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams – Week 11 NFL Picks
Expert handicapper Rich Crew breaks down this NFC West showdown with a deep efficiency-driven point spread bet, focusing on success rate edges, red-zone performance, and looming turnover regression at SoFi Stadium.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -3 | Total: 49
The Rundown
This is the kind of November spot that can flip a division race and a futures ticket in one afternoon. Both teams roll in at 7–2, first place in the NFC West on the line, and the books are hanging a flat Rams -3 and daring you to pick a side.
The records match, but the way they got here doesn’t. Seattle has the cleaner “true power” profile: #1 in DVOA, +1.2 net yards per play, and they’re turning yardage into points at 52.1 yards per point. The Rams are at +0.4 net yards per play and need 58.7 yards per point to get on the board. Over 12–14 drives, that’s not noise – that’s real meat on the bone.
So why is L.A. laying the field goal? Turnovers. The Rams sit at about +0.8 per game in turnover margin, Seattle’s around -0.4. Los Angeles has been living right with short fields and extra possessions; Seattle’s had to earn everything the hard way. The market is basically saying, “We believe that script keeps rolling.” If that turnover luck even drifts back toward neutral, the Seahawks’ underlying edge starts to show up on the scoreboard.
Both offenses can sustain drives – they’re right around 11 plays per scoring drive – so this shapes up as a possession game where every third down, every red-zone trip, and every mistake matters for your ticket.
Why Seattle Has the Edge
If you’re trying to decide who you’d rather sweat for four quarters, the down-to-down stuff points you toward Seattle. The Seahawks own a 47.2% offensive success rate and allow just 41.8% on defense – a +5.4% differential, top four in the league. The Rams sit at +2.1%. That’s the difference between an offense that stays on schedule and one that needs more hero ball to move the chains.
Success rate is the “true grinder” stat – 50% of needed yards on first down, 70% on second, 100% on third/fourth. It strips out fluky explosives and asks, “Can you actually function as an offense?” On that front, Seattle is the more reliable side.
They also turn 44.3% of drives into points, compared to 39.8% for the Rams. Over an expected 11–12 drives, that’s a few extra legit scoring chances for the Seahawks. In a game lined at a field goal, that’s exactly where you want to be holding the dog.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Drive: Seattle 2.64 (3rd) vs Los Angeles 2.38 (8th)
- Yards Per Play: Seattle 6.2 vs Los Angeles 5.8
- Success Rate: Seattle 47.2% vs Los Angeles 44.6%
- Drive Success Rate: Seattle 44.3% vs Los Angeles 39.8%
- Explosive Play Rate: Seattle 16.8% vs Los Angeles 14.2%
- Three-and-Out Rate: Seattle 18.1% vs Los Angeles 22.4%
Inside the 20, Seattle has another built-in edge. The Seahawks punch in touchdowns on 68.4% of red-zone trips. The Rams’ red-zone D is giving up TDs at 61.2% – a tick worse than league average. Over a handful of red-zone chances, that’s the difference between leaning on field goals and putting a game out in front.
Third down tells a similar story. Seattle converts 42.1% of its third downs, while the Rams defense allows 38.9%. It doesn’t sound massive, but over 10–12 third downs, that’s a couple of extra drives being extended instead of dying.
Yes, time of possession reads Rams 31:42 vs Seahawks 29:18, but that’s more about how they score than how often. The Rams need to string together longer drives to get the same output. Seattle can do it in fewer snaps thanks to better efficiency and a higher explosive rate.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
We opened and stayed at Rams -3. Early splits show roughly 60+% of tickets landing on Seattle, and the number hasn’t blinked. That’s usually your clue that public money likes the dog and the sharper stuff is fine with the current price or nibbling Rams at flat three.
Turnover margin is doing a lot of the heavy lifting for Los Angeles here. The Rams force a takeaway about once every 18.2 plays. Seattle doesn’t get theirs until about every 31.4 snaps. That’s a big gap and exactly the kind of thing that tends to regress as the season wears on. You can’t count on tipped balls and plus-field-position gifts every week.
The total nudged from 48.5 to 49, with a heavy lean to the Over, even though both defenses sit top-six in scoring allowed. Bettors are essentially siding with the quarterbacks and play-callers over the raw scoring D numbers.
Injuries will matter around the margins, but nothing to this point has been big enough to knock us off the key number. Books are clearly comfortable parking this on three and letting the action sort itself out.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Seattle | Los Angeles | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Per Drive | 2.64 | 2.38 | Seattle |
| Success Rate | 47.2% | 44.6% | Seattle |
| Explosive Play Rate | 16.8% | 14.2% | Seattle |
| Drive Success Rate | 44.3% | 39.8% | Seattle |
| Three-and-Out Rate | 18.1% | 22.4% | Seattle |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 68.4% | 58.2% | Seattle |
| Turnover Rate | 1 per 31.4 plays | 1 per 18.2 plays | Rams |
When you zoom into situational football, the Seahawks’ profile looks even more like the side you’d rather be on. On early downs, they’re successful just over half the time (52.1%), compared to 48.7% for the Rams. That’s more second-and-4, fewer third-and-9.
In two-minute situations, Seattle is putting up about 3.1 points per opportunity, good for second in the league. The Rams sit around 2.4 – still dangerous, but not the same “one drive flips your ticket” level.
Goal-to-go is another subtle edge: Seahawks finish those drives with TDs at 78.9%, Rams at 71.4%. In a game that projects to live in the 3–7 point window, those little differences are exactly what separate covers from bad beats.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
If you’re a “trust the efficiency” bettor and not chasing helmets, Seattle is the side that grades out better. The Seahawks’ +1.2 net yards per play, strong success rate, and red-zone profile look like a legit contender, not a team that needs smoke and mirrors to stay close.
The Rams are good, but they’ve been boosted by a turnover script that doesn’t tend to last forever. If that swings even slightly back toward center, the underlying gaps in drive quality favor Seattle. Getting a full three with the team that’s been better snap-to-snap is exactly the kind of bet I’m willing to live with long-term.
And despite the name value, this isn’t some massive QB edge for L.A. either. Sam Darnold’s sitting around 2.1 EPA per play, Matthew Stafford around 1.8. Perception says big gap; the numbers say it’s pretty close.
Prediction
Seattle Seahawks 27, Los Angeles Rams 23
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Seahawks +3 (-105) – You’re catching the key number with the better process team. If this closes 2.5, you’ll be happy you grabbed the hook.
- ⭐⭐ Over 49 (-110) – Both offenses sit top-eight in points per drive. If either side avoids a turnover disaster, 52–54 is well in range.
- ⭐ Seahawks ML (+150) – I make this closer to a 45% win probability for Seattle, so any plus-money in this range is worth a smaller sprinkle.
Game Flow Projection: Seattle’s early-down efficiency shows up quickly – more manageable thirds, more play-action, and fewer “punt from your own 30” drives. If the Seahawks keep their drive success rate in the mid-40s and hold the Rams under 40%, the dog is live wire-to-wire. For the Rams to justify the favorite tag, they probably need to win the turnover battle by two or more and run hot in the red zone again.
KEY_ANGLE: Seattle’s elite process profile is due for friendlier turnover variance, and getting a full field goal with that team in a tight division game is a ticket I’m willing to write.
