Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears – Week 12 NFL Picks
>Date: November 23, 2025 – 1:00 PM ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
TV: FOX
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Chicago -3.0 (+100) / Pittsburgh +3.0 (-130)
Moneyline: Chicago -150 | Pittsburgh +125
Total: 45.5
The market is underestimating the defensive nature of this Week 12 clash at Soldier Field. While the public looks at the 7-3 Bears and anticipates a high-scoring home performance, the data points to a tight, methodical game dictated by ball control and defensive efficiency. With the total sitting at 45.5, and both teams trending toward conservative, low-volume play, the strongest value on the board is clearly betting against the high score.
Betting Odds & Key Trends
Spread: Chicago -3.0
Total: 45.5
Pittsburgh ATS Record: 5-5 overall, 1-3 ATS on the road
Chicago ATS Record: 6-4 overall, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games
Head-to-Head: Chicago has covered 5 of the last 6 vs Pittsburgh
PIT Last 10 Games: SU: N/A; ATS: N/A (data beyond last 5 not provided)
CHI Last 10 Games: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Matchup Breakdown
Pittsburgh enters this matchup with one of the weaker yardage offenses in the league (286.9 YPG, 28th), and their ground production has been particularly inefficient at just 3.9 YPC. Despite this, the Steelers’ offense still posts 24.6 points per game thanks to solid red-zone execution (63.33%) and a top-10 QB rating (97.2). The recent QB rotation hasn’t slowed them much, but their passing volume remains modest at 30.7 attempts per game.
Chicago offers more balance, averaging 25.8 points with a major edge on the ground. The Bears’ 146.6 rushing yards per game (4th in home splits) are their best asset, helping protect rookie QB Caleb Williams. Chicago’s offense has produced 30+ points in two of its last three games—including a 576-yard outburst at Cincinnati—but their defense gives nearly all of it back, allowing 26.4 PPG.
On the defensive side, the Steelers hold the stronger per-play profile. Pittsburgh allows only 5.4 yards per play versus Chicago’s 6.2, and their opponent points-per-play number (0.339) is meaningfully lower than Chicago’s (0.450). The Bears struggle to prevent chunk passing plays (11.1 yards per completion allowed — worst in the league), and while Pittsburgh isn’t explosive, they are opportunistic.
The key stylistic factor is pace and method of attack: Chicago runs the ball at a much higher rate (46.53% rush share), and Pittsburgh plays methodically with relatively low snap volume. Combined with the Bears’ strong home under trend (4 of last 5 Unders at Soldier Field), this matchup profiles slower and more controlled than the market expectation.
Pittsburgh at Chicago Betting Pick
This total sits at 45.5 despite both teams regularly playing tighter than their raw scoring averages suggest. Chicago’s last five home games have stayed Under, and Pittsburgh is a bottom-tier offense in yards per play (5.2). The Steelers’ defensive metrics—particularly red zone efficiency allowed (51.43%) and points per play allowed—indicate a unit capable of forcing field goals rather than touchdowns.
Chicago’s strong rushing attack lengthens possessions, and Pittsburgh’s road offensive output (188.5 passing yards per game away from home) supports a slower script. With both teams trending toward conservative game flow and their defenses matching up better than their aggregate stats suggest, the Under holds the clearest value.
Free Pick: Take the Under 45.5
