Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals – Week 7 NFL Picks
Can Joe Flacco and the Bengals punch above their weight on a short week? The Steelers have been opportunistic, but Cincinnati’s elite red-zone numbers could turn this into a tighter-than-expected AFC North clash.
Game Information Dashboard
Date: Thursday, October 16, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 | Total: 44.5
The Rundown
The market respects Pittsburgh’s 4-1 start, but the numbers suggest this spread might be a touch inflated. The Steelers average 23.8 points per game on just 277.8 total yards — an offense built on short fields and opportunism. Cincinnati’s offense has been dreadful at 17.2 points and 235.2 yards per game, but that gap narrows once you factor in turnover regression and opponent context.
This line opened Pittsburgh -6 and has ticked down to -5.5, indicating some quiet respect for the home dog. The total has crept up to 44.5, hinting that bettors expect better offensive efficiency than recent box scores show. Both defenses have been vulnerable — Pittsburgh allows 21.4 PPG on 355.6 yards per game, while Cincinnati gives up a league-worst 30.5 PPG and 394.2 yards. That combination creates sneaky value on both the Bengals and the Over in a divisional Thursday night spot.
Why Cincinnati Has the Edge
For Cincinnati, it starts with desperation and big-play variance. Joe Flacco isn’t efficient, but he still gives this offense a downfield threat. The Bengals throw the ball on a league-high 67.2% of plays and average 5.7 yards per pass, compared to Pittsburgh’s 7.4. The key is explosive play potential — Cincinnati’s explosive rate (13.2%) narrowly edges Pittsburgh’s (11.8%), even with their inefficiency between the 20s.
More importantly, Cincinnati’s red-zone offense has quietly been elite: scoring touchdowns on 76.9% of trips (2nd in the league). That’s a sharp contrast to their overall scoring output and gives them a path to outperform market expectations if they can get drives deep. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed touchdowns on half of opponent red-zone possessions, but they’ve faced one of the league’s softest schedules of opposing offenses so far.
The Numbers That Matter
- Points Per Game: Pittsburgh 23.8 (#14) | Cincinnati 17.2 (#29)
- Yards Per Play: Pittsburgh 5.1 | Cincinnati 4.3
- Third Down Conversion: Pittsburgh 38.6% | Cincinnati 36.8%
- Red Zone TD Rate: Pittsburgh 71.4% | Cincinnati 76.9%
- Turnover Margin: Pittsburgh +1.4 (#2) | Cincinnati -0.7 (#26)
- Yards Per Pass: Pittsburgh 7.4 | Cincinnati 5.7
- Yards Per Rush: Pittsburgh 3.4 | Cincinnati 3.1
Pittsburgh’s numbers reflect a balanced but unspectacular offense that wins through efficiency and turnovers. The Steelers’ +1.4 turnover margin per game ranks second in the league, while Cincinnati’s -0.7 sits near the bottom. That’s the clearest statistical separation. However, the Bengals’ defense has been worse than its reputation — opponents average 5.9 yards per play and convert 45.9% on third down, both bottom-five figures.
Market Analysis & Line Movement
The line sliding from -6 to -5.5 despite 67% of tickets on Pittsburgh signals sharp action on Cincinnati. The Bengals’ recent offensive bump and red-zone success likely drive that sentiment. Historically, divisional home underdogs on Thursday nights cover 58% of the time since 2019. The total’s move up to 44.5 suggests bettors see value fading both defenses — particularly a Cincinnati unit allowing nearly 400 yards per game and 71.4% red-zone conversions against.
Head-to-Head Efficiency Matchups
| Metric | Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points/Game | 23.8 | 17.2 | PIT |
| Yards/Play | 5.1 | 4.3 | PIT |
| Yards/Pass | 7.4 | 5.7 | PIT |
| Yards/Rush | 3.4 | 3.1 | PIT |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 71.4% | 76.9% | CIN |
| Turnover Margin | +1.4 | -0.7 | PIT |
| Opp Yards/Play | 5.2 | 5.9 | PIT |
Pittsburgh owns the baseline efficiency edge across the board, but Cincinnati’s red-zone and big-play edge can neutralize it in a short-week game. Flacco’s 63.4% completion rate and 7.24% sack rate suggest he’ll face pressure but can still attack downfield. The Bengals’ offensive line remains an issue, but Pittsburgh’s 9.52% sack rate could also leave them exposed on aggressive blitz downs.
The Bottom Line & Predictions
The Steelers are more efficient, but not dominant. Their 23.8 PPG on 5.1 yards per play points to a team that capitalizes on mistakes, not one that consistently drives the field. Cincinnati’s offense is inefficient but explosive when they connect — and their red-zone conversion rate can make up ground quickly. With both teams playing to their scoring tendencies and both defenses leaking chunk plays, the total looks soft at 44.5.
Prediction
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 24
Best Bets
- ⭐⭐⭐ Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-110) — Verified metrics show a smaller efficiency gap than the line implies.
- ⭐⭐ Over 44.5 (-110) — Both defenses rank bottom-10 in yards per play allowed and red-zone TD rate.
- ⭐ Both Teams Over 20.5 Points — Scoring efficiency and situational metrics favor an uptick in total output.
Game Flow Projection: Cincinnati keeps pace through big plays and red-zone precision, while Pittsburgh leans on turnover margin and short fields. The Bengals cover if they avoid giving the ball away more than once. The Over cashes if both teams sustain at least 11 drives and combine for 6+ red-zone trips.
KEY_ANGLE: Cincinnati’s elite red-zone conversion and desperation spot offset Pittsburgh’s turnover edge in a high-variance divisional matchup.
