Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns – Week 17 NFL Picks & Predictions
The Steelers travel to Cleveland as 3-point favorites for a rematch of their Week 6 defensive battle. Expert Rich Crew breaks down why the loss of star receiver DK Metcalf to suspension makes the league-low 34-point total the most important number for Week 17 bettors.
Steelers at Browns — Week 17 NFL Betting Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers (9–6) at Cleveland Browns (3–12)
Sunday, December 28, 2025 | 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Line: Steelers -3 | Total: 34
Market Context
This game doesn’t offer much from a viewing standpoint, but it does present a clear betting angle. Pittsburgh has already secured its playoff position, while Cleveland has been eliminated for weeks. The market responded accordingly, opening Steelers -3 with a total of 34 — the lowest total posted all season.
That number alone tells you how this game is being priced. The expectation isn’t pace or explosiveness. It’s field position, conservative play-calling, and limited possessions.
Personnel Changes Since Week 6
The last meeting between these teams came in Week 6, a 23–9 Pittsburgh win that totaled 32 points. Since then, several meaningful personnel changes tilt this rematch toward even less scoring.
- DK Metcalf is suspended — Pittsburgh’s top deep threat and the leading receiver from the first matchup (95 yards, TD).
- T.J. Watt is questionable — even if active, his snap count and usage are likely managed in a low-stakes spot.
- Quinshon Judkins is out — Cleveland loses its primary early-down back.
- Shedeur Sanders replaces Dillon Gabriel — a less efficient quarterback now running an already limited offense.
Each of these changes removes offensive ceiling rather than adding it.
Offensive Reality Check
On paper, Pittsburgh’s offense grades out well: 24.3 points per game, 0.429 points per play, and top-10 efficiency on third down and in the red zone. But context matters. Without Metcalf, this becomes a shorter, more methodical offense that leans on ball control and field position.
Cleveland’s offense remains near the bottom of the league across nearly every category: last in scoring (16.4 PPG), near the bottom in points per play, completion rate, and third-down conversion. That profile hasn’t improved with Sanders under center.
The Browns’ defense, however, is legitimately strong. They rank first in passing yards allowed and top-three in yards per play allowed. That unit is capable of slowing Pittsburgh enough to prevent this game from getting away.
Quarterback Dynamics
This matchup comes down to experience versus limitation. Aaron Rodgers isn’t being asked to push pace or chase margin. His role here is straightforward: protect the football, convert manageable third downs, and leave the rest to the defense.
Sanders, meanwhile, is being asked to survive. His tendency to hold the ball and his low completion rate increase turnover risk, but Cleveland’s game plan is unlikely to put him in aggressive situations. That conservative approach limits both mistakes and scoring.
Why the Total Matters More Than the Side
Pittsburgh can win this game comfortably without scoring much. They don’t need to press. Cleveland doesn’t have the offensive capacity to force tempo.
In the first meeting, with healthier personnel and greater motivation, these teams combined for 32 points. Removing Metcalf alone accounts for a significant chunk of that total.
Even modest regression in pass rush from Pittsburgh doesn’t materially help Cleveland’s scoring outlook, especially without Judkins and behind the same offensive line.
Efficiency Snapshot
- Steelers: +4.3 point differential, +0.6 turnover margin
- Browns: -12.0 point differential, -0.4 turnover margin
- Week 6 Total: 32 points
- Current Total: 34 points
Those numbers suggest a narrow margin with limited scoring opportunities — not a game that needs to reach the mid-30s.
Weather & Game Script
Late-December conditions in Cleveland typically suppress pace. Cold temperatures and wind reduce downfield passing efficiency and increase reliance on field goals.
Combine that with conservative coaching incentives and this projects as a game dominated by punts, field position, and clock management.
Final Projection
The most likely outcomes live in a narrow range:
- Steelers 20, Browns 13
- Steelers 23, Browns 10
- Steelers 17, Browns 13
Each lands below the posted total.
Best Bet
Under 34 Points
Standard -110
This is a situational under built on personnel loss, motivation, defensive strength, and historical context. Nothing about this matchup suggests an expanded scoring environment.
Key Angle: Pittsburgh can control the game without extending drives, while Cleveland lacks the offensive structure to force pace. That combination consistently produces low-30s totals.
Final Lean: Steelers win, total stays under.
— Rich Crew
