The books won’t budge off -3. That’s not apathy—it’s a tell. We’ve got the matchup that moves this number… and the side we’re riding ATS.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 9, 2025 at 8:20PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: NBC/Peacock
Betting Odds
Point Spread: PIT +3/LAC -3 (Bovada)
Money Line: PIT +140, LAC -165
Over/Under Total: 45
The Pittsburgh Steelers come to SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football. This AFC matchup features two teams vying to become contenders and coming off wins on Sunday. The Steelers bounced back from two straight losses to post a nice 27-20 win over a good Colts team. They now take to the road to face a Bolts squad that saw their week unfold similarly, bouncing back from an early deficit to also win 27-20, beating the Titans on the road to go to 6-3. Let’s break this one down!
Range of Possibilities
In this game, the range might be larger than it is normally, even in a league where it can be pretty wide. The Chargers got off to a fast start before injuries started putting a hurt of various aspects of the team. Now, it’s hard to pinpoint what to expect after they go from getting beaten badly by the Commanders and Colts to stomping the Vikings and then winning last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, had seen their defense bottom out over the course of the last month, setting up for what seemed like a tough matchup against Indy last week, where the Steelers were leading 24-7 in the 4th quarter after their defense held firm for much of the game.
It sets up for a game where it’s not easy to gain a sense of what’s going to happen, but at the same time there are enough contrasts to make an attempt interesting. The Chargers have a little more juice on the offensive side of the ball, with the younger Justin Herbert commandeering an offense that has taken enormous hits up front, while maintaining a decent amount of their core from a playmaking perspective. Until last week, Kimani Vidal was getting it done on the ground, They added a blooming rookie TE in Oronde Gadsden to go along with a nice group of receivers. And when they’re dialed-in, it’s not easy to keep pace.
Is the Steelers Defense Back?
It has really been tough sledding recently for the Steelers defense up until Sunday, as they were being torn to pieces aerially and giving up a lot of production and points, with their big-play ability muted. Sunday saw a return to form, as they kept Indy from scoring for nearly three quarters after a rough start. With six turnovers and five sacks, their big-play ability was back in effect and it was a huge contribution to the team win, as Aaron Rodgers and this Pittsburgh offense wasn’t exactly on fire on Sunday.
Granted, this one really nice showing for the Steelers on “D” was at home and we’ve seen a disparity from this unit between home and away games. But the Chargers are still depreciated up front with Joe Alt going down again, where an on-point Steelers’ attacking defense could do some damage. Los Angeles is down both starting tackles—Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt—so protection off the edges is a real concern here. Whereas the Chargers were able to keep it together against the Dolphins, Vikings, and Titans, maybe this Pittsburgh defense can get to Herbert and throw this Chargers offense for a loop. For all the weapons the Bolts have, at some point it does indeed come down to the offensive line. On Sunday, they couldn’t run the ball and Herbert was back to running for his life in spots, something that could be exacerbated this week at home.
What to Expect
First of all, the Steelers will be without their home-crowd and some of the weather the second-half of the season can bring, as they are playing in LA. But with this being a primetime game and with how well the Steelers’ fans travel, the stadium isn’t going to feel like much of a home-game for the Chargers. Perhaps in retrospect, Sunday’s win over a good Colts team wasn’t such a surprise, Coach Mike Tomlin can usually make the adjustments when the seas get rocky during a season. And in-game, we saw the adjustments the Steelers and their defense made after the Colts got off to a good start. Not many after that first drive would have guessed the Colts would be flummoxed for much of the game, despite a late spurt that made the final score look closer than the game actually was.
While there is a chance that the Chargers defense can come up with something to stifle a hit-or-miss Steelers’ offense, it’s still the Chargers laying points in this spot and getting credit for a home-field advantage that is hardly existent. And maybe this is where the loss of Omarion Hampton (Chargers) starts to really resonate—he’s on IR and not expected back until after the Week 12 bye—so we’ll see how that develops over the week. In the meantime, the Chargers have leaned on Kimani Vidal in the backfield. Whoever is in the Chargers’ backfield will be up against it behind this line and taking on this defense. This isn’t a pass-rush you want to be facing when struggling to run the ball behind a line that can’t protect.
Take the Points on the Road Dog
On one hand, I don’t want to ascribe too much to one game, which is precisely what one needs to do in order to sign off on the idea that the Steelers defense is indeed back on track. And even if you get some version of that, there’s no guarantee the offense will do its share of the lifting. I just sense how each team looked last week against vastly different calibers of opponent that the Steelers’ advances carry a bit more weight. I think the pressure on Herbert will be immense and that the run-game will languish some, as the Steelers do what they need to do to keep this close and cover the spread. I’m taking the Steelers.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 3 points.
