The Pittsburgh Steelers head into Detroit as significant underdogs in a game that could determine the playoff fate of both 8-6 squads. Bryan Bash dives into the efficiency metrics to see if Aaron Rodgers can exploit a vulnerable Lions secondary now that the Steelers’ defense is missing its most disruptive force.
Opening Setup
Here’s what makes this Week 16 matchup fascinating for bettors: we’ve got two teams heading in completely different directions, but both desperate for a win. The Lions are the NFL’s top scoring offense at 30.6 points per game, but they’re coming off a brutal loss to the Rams that has their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh just won two straight behind Aaron Rodgers, but their offense ranks 27th in total yards at just 288.1 per game.
For newer bettors, this is a perfect example of why you can’t just look at records. Detroit is 8-6 but needs this game more than almost any team in the league. Pittsburgh is also 8-6 but controls their own destiny in the AFC North. The spread reflects Detroit’s desperation and home-field advantage, but the key question is whether their explosive offense can take advantage of a Steelers defense that will be without its best player.
CRITICAL INJURY UPDATE: T.J. Watt is OUT for this game with a lung injury. This is massive. While Pittsburgh managed to beat Miami 28-15 last week without him, Detroit is a completely different animal. The Lions average 30.6 points per game — the best in the NFL — compared to Miami’s middling offense. The defensive statistics cited throughout this analysis include games WITH Watt healthy. Without him anchoring the pass rush, Pittsburgh faces the league’s most explosive offense significantly shorthanded.
The crazy part is how these teams match up. Detroit lives and dies by big plays – they average 6.2 yards per play (2nd in NFL) while Pittsburgh’s defense allows 5.4 yards per play (18th). That’s not exactly a shutdown unit going against the league’s most efficient attack — and now they’re doing it without their best defender.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, December 21
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit
TV: CBS
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Detroit Lions -7 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 52 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Lions -320 / Steelers +260 | – |
Quick Translation: The spread means Detroit needs to win by more than 7 points for Lions bettors to cash. The total of 52 means you’re betting whether both teams combine for more or fewer points than that number. The moneyline shows Detroit as a heavy favorite – you’d need to risk $320 to win $100 on the Lions, while $100 on Pittsburgh pays $260 if they pull the upset.
Line Movement Analysis
While we don’t have complete line movement data, the current 7-point spread tells us the market sees this as a clear home favorite situation. Detroit opened the week needing a win to keep playoff hopes alive, and that desperation typically moves lines. The fact that Pittsburgh is getting 7 points on the road against a Lions team that averages nearly 31 points per game suggests the market respects the Steelers’ recent momentum under Rodgers.
What’s interesting is that Detroit is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games, while the total has gone over in 4 straight Lions games. When you see a team consistently hitting the over but struggling to cover spreads, it usually means they’re in high-scoring games but not blowing teams out like the market expects. With Watt out, expect this trend to continue — both teams should score.
Key Matchups
The numbers that jump out immediately show why this spread might be too high:
Points per play: Lions 0.499 (#1) vs Steelers defense 0.345 (#11)
Red zone touchdown rate: Lions 67.27% (#2) vs Steelers defense 54.00% (#11)
Turnover margin: Lions +0.6 per game vs Steelers +0.7 per game
Here’s the thing – Detroit’s offense is elite, but Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t terrible when healthy. The Lions average 6.2 yards per play while the Steelers allow 5.4. That’s a significant edge, but without Watt generating pressure, Detroit’s offense could have a field day. More importantly, Pittsburgh normally forces 1.7 takeaways per game (3rd in NFL) against a Lions team that gives the ball away 0.6 times per game (best in NFL). Without their best pass rusher to disrupt the pocket, forcing turnovers becomes much harder.
Why Smart Bettors Like Pittsburgh
- Value in the Number — Getting 7 points with a team that’s won two straight and just beat Baltimore on the road. In what could be a shootout without Watt, seven points is significant insurance.
- Offensive Efficiency — Pittsburgh’s offense has been efficient under Rodgers, averaging 0.431 points per play (8th in NFL). They can keep pace in a high-scoring game.
- Desperation Angle — Sometimes teams that “need” a win more press too hard, while the less desperate team plays loose and confident.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +7 — The Lions are the better team on paper, but seven points is a lot in what should be a competitive, high-scoring game. Detroit averages 30.6 points per game, and they’re also allowing 24.6 points per game at home. Pittsburgh’s offense has been efficient under Rodgers, averaging 0.431 points per play (8th in NFL).
The key difference from our earlier analysis: without T.J. Watt, this becomes more of a “both teams will score, take the points” play rather than a “Pittsburgh defense can contain Detroit” play. The Steelers beat Miami 28-15 without Watt last week, but Detroit is an entirely different challenge. Even if Detroit wins comfortably, getting a touchdown with a team that just beat the Ravens and has been competitive in every game provides excellent value in what projects as a shootout.
Strong Secondary Play: Over 52 — This number looks even more attractive with Watt out. Detroit’s recent trend of high-scoring games combined with a depleted Pittsburgh pass rush suggests both offenses will move the ball effectively. The over has hit in 6 of Detroit’s last 7 games, and Pittsburgh’s defense loses its best weapon to generate negative plays.
What to Watch For
- How Pittsburgh’s pass rush performs without T.J. Watt — can they generate any pressure on Jared Goff?
- Early turnover battle – could determine the game’s flow
- Detroit’s ability to establish their running game early against a weakened front seven
- Live betting opportunities if Pittsburgh keeps it close early — the market may overreact to Detroit scores
Bottom Line Summary
This line feels like the market properly pricing Detroit’s elite offense but still offering value on Pittsburgh’s side. Yes, the Lions have a better offense and need this game more, and yes, losing T.J. Watt is a massive blow to the Steelers’ defense. But the Steelers have shown they can score with anyone when Rodgers is playing well, and seven points is simply too many in what projects as a high-scoring game between playoff-caliber teams.
The key adjustment from standard analysis: without Watt, expect both teams to score. Pittsburgh’s path to covering isn’t shutting down Detroit — it’s keeping pace offensively and staying within a touchdown. The Steelers proved against Miami they can win without Watt, but against Detroit’s elite attack, the focus shifts to offensive firepower and point differential rather than defensive containment.
Final Score Prediction: Lions 31, Steelers 27.
