It’s been said through the years that the NFC is the stronger conference.
I don’t know if it’s true or not,
I don’t know what it’s based on.
I think the roots of the statement could be found in a period where the NFC dominated in the Super Bowl, but they currently only hold a slight edge over the AFC, 29-28.
But here’s what I do know, when it comes to factoring in the strength of divisions in my handicapping models. Take a look at the following chart of WF1 qualifying games this season (Wrong Favorite listed first, followed by the team the books made the Favorite, followed by the ATS results for the WF).
Week One:
Hou/LAR (Loser)
Week Two:
KC/Phil (L)
Week Three:
Cle/GB (W)
Cincinnati/Min (L)
NY/TB (W)
Week Four:
Ind/LAR (L)
Pit/Min (W)
Week Five:
Mia/Car (L)
NY/Dal (L)
Week Six:
Baltimore/LAR (L)
Add ’em up, whaddya got?
NFC 7, AFC 3
So, when I have an AFC WF1 vs an NFC team, I have a 70% play on the NFC.
How about all games this season, AFC vs NFC, ATS?
The NFC has the edge 22-12 ATS.
That’s a very profitable edge at 64%.
With the Superbowls at 28-27, there is no conference dominance evident.
But with 2025 regular season play ATS at 64%, the NFC looks pretty dominant from a sports bettors POV.
That, combined with a 70% edge, fading the play when an AFC vs NFC game qualifies as one of my WF1 spots, means you KNOW what I’m looking for this week.
And I’ve got one.
WF1 says that the Jags should be the Fav against the Rams.
Aside from the stats noted above, let’s see if I can find anything else that makes me like LAR this week.
The Rams are 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS.
Okay, I’m liking that.
What else?
The Rams are on the road this week, where they’re 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS.
I’m liking that, too.
What else?
In keeping with the theme of this article, NFC versus AFC, the Rams are 4-0 ATS against AFC opponents.
FOUR-zero.
I’m loving that!
What do I see from the team on the other sideline?
Two weeks ago Jacksonville pulled one out of their ass and had a fluke come from behind win against KC with under a minute left in the game.
Last week, the natural order of things was restored as the mediocre Jags got their butts kicked by Seattle, managing to score just 12 points at home.
But there are some stats that favor the Jags in this one.
Jacksonville is 2-1 SU vs the NFC, with one quality win, against San Fran.
And they’re 3-1 SU and ATS at Hm.
But two of those wins came against Carolina and Houston, two low-level teams who are a combined 5-6 SU. Their one quality home win came against KC in that fluke game, one that may turn out to be the highlight of their season.
And one more stat seemingly favors the Jags in this one, until you take a closer look at it.
LAR/Jax is being played in London.
(I’m not a fan of the London Games; they discombobulate MY natural order of things. I like French toast and bacon with my NFL morning game, but 6:30 a.m. is a little bit TOO early for a heavy breakfast like that.)
The Jags are 7-6 SU when playing across the pond.
BUT, again, in keeping with the NFC vs AFC theme of this column, almost ALL of those seven wins came against their AFC buddies.
Their record versus the NFC in London is just 1-3.
And I’m liking that, too.
When to Buy Recommendation:
The common number on this one is LAR -3.
There are a couple of houses at -2′, but with extra juice tacked on. You can easily get the Rams and pay less than the standard juice of -110.
My play:
LAR -3, -105
Recap: 1-0
Record: 2-3
Review: I didn’t like most of the standard stats, but my model (Fade WF1 Rd teams) said Fade the Lions and take the Chiefs, so I did.
That play was a 13-8 Fade going into week 6.
Two games qualified: Seattle and Detroit.
Seattle covered, Detroit didn’t, so it was a good move staying off the Seattle game.
The play is now 14-8, still good for a 60% Fade.
Cincinnati qualified last night.
I didn’t like it and stayed off. Good move.
14-9 now, 58%.
The cut off I try to use for buying plays is 58% so it’s still a playable system, but heading in the wrong direction.
Four games that qualify are left on this week’s card: the Jags, the Colts, the Giants, and the Bucs.
I’ve already Faded the Jags, and I like the other three as well.
The Colts’ Daniel Jones is way overdue to turn back into the Daniel Jones we know and love to bet against.
Baker Mayfield can’t keep coming up with late-game miracles; he’s due for a bit of a come-down, too.
And I like Denver at home versus Jaxon Dart, but the spread is a little bit high on that one.
I’ll likely add at least one of them for my play in The PredictEm Forum on Sunday.
See ya there…
