Houston Texans (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)
NFL Football Week 14
Date/Time: Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 8:20PM EST
Where: Geha Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: NBC/Peacock
Betting Odds
Point Spread: HOU +3/KC -3 (Bovada)
Money Line: HOU +155, KC -180
Over/Under Total: 42
The Houston Texans come to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a key AFC showdown on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City is in a situation unlike any they’ve seen in recent memory, basically out of the AFC West race and essentially relegated to attempting to salvage a wild card spot. Houston is trying to make their third straight postseason and has helped that cause with four straight wins, including a 20-16 victory over Indy last week, but is still 7-5 and in third place in their division and needs to keep winning. Neither team has much margin for error as we near toward the final stretch of regular season games. Who should we get behind in this high-stakes matchup from KC?
Can the Chiefs Get on a Roll?
Looking back to when one truly noticed the Chiefs had become something special, it just might have been that divisional playoff game following the 2019 season, where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs fell behind at home to the Texans, 24-0 in the second quarter, before roaring back and winning 51-31 and then winning the Super Bowl. And now almost 6 years later, what has become a dynasty is now at risk of being extinguished at the hands of that same team. And now, the Texans have a chance to give their hopes a big push against a team that once so brutally stomped on their dreams.
Other than getting this at home, it’s not the ideal get-right spot for the struggling Chiefs, losers of three of their last four. They get a team that is on the rise after starting the season at a hopeless-looking 3-5. After dropping their first three games, it has been a long and hard road to salvage this season and I wouldn’t expect them to relinquish this momentum easily. The last two weeks, we’ve seen a Houston defense that has hit a crescendo, quelling two dangerous offenses in the Bills and the Colts. It’s the top-ranked defense in the NFL, and they’re very balanced. Will Anderson, Jr. and Danielle Hunter are already both at double-digits in sacks. Four guys have at least two interceptions, and the big-play element that supplements their general stoutness makes them very tough on opposing offenses.
Looking for Hope for the Chiefs
While there have been some ups and downs for the Chiefs, this is a bit of a new moment for them—facing an ultra-urgent regular season situation that is squarely in must-win territory. That’s not when you want to be going against the top defense in football. And let’s face it, the mish-mosh of contributors that Mahomes now has at his disposal is not scaring anyone anymore. But still, it’s Patrick Mahomes going against CJ Stroud, who just got back into action last week and has been in a bit of a freefall since his big rookie season of ’23. And Stroud is going against what you would think is going to be a highly motivated Chiefs’ defense that is still pretty good and getting an assist from some pretty cold conditions this Sunday in the late game.
If the Chiefs can shut down the Houston run, which isn’t that hard to envision, maybe they can cover Nico Collins and render the Houston offense a bit impotent with their dearth of game-changing weapons. They really rely on defense, and there aren’t a lot of difference-makers on the other side of the ball. But if an inconsistent Houston rush languishes and Collins doesn’t connect with Stroud in a big way, the Chiefs’ offense might not have to hit the end zone with that much regularity to gain an upper hand. And against this Houston defense, that’s a distinct possibility.
Not Being Late to the Party
In situations like this, where a great team or even a great athlete is on the downside, one can be late in acknowledging it. Maybe the wheels are just coming off for Kansas City in a league where nothing goes forever and seldom goes for even as long as the Chiefs have maintained their high level. Last season, some institutional inertia and a top “D” helped buoy them to an AFC title. And maybe now reality is beginning to show itself. The price for not having a bankable run-game has registered, as have the issues along the KC offensive line. Mahomes not getting a ton of help has forced him into trying to make big plays, which have led to some miscues, often late in close games. Injuries have robbed the offense of some continuity. Despite having what would seem to be a vital aerial attack with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Kelce, it has seldom really manifested. With the Chiefs having their backs against the wall like this, the question becomes, do you go off what you have seen, or do you try to envision a route where Mahomes and Co. find a way to navigate their way out of these rocky seas?
Take the Points
It’s not even a matter of signing off on the Chiefs’ demise or an endorsement of Houston as a rising force in the AFC. This just has the look of a toss-up game being played in some cold where a field goal’s worth of slack can come in handy. I look for both defenses to make their imprints in this one, with the offenses eking out what they can in a game that could come down to the wire. You can almost see a late FG deciding this, in which case I’d like to have the points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number crept up a tiny bit before gametime. I’m taking Houston.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the Houston Texans plus 3 points.
Get pronosticator Chad Fox’s recommended KC/Hou O/U play >>>
