Titans vs Texans Preview: Week 4 AFC South Showdown
Opening Setup
Here’s what’s interesting about Sunday’s game – we’ve got two winless teams desperate for their first victory of 2025. Both the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans sit at 0-3, which makes this a true must-win situation for both franchises. For newer bettors, games like this can be goldmines because the emotions run high and the betting public often overreacts to early season struggles.
The crazy part is that oddsmakers still believe in Houston enough to make them 7-point home favorites. That’s a significant spread for two teams that have looked equally terrible through three weeks. The Texans were supposed to be playoff contenders after C.J. Stroud’s rookie success, but they’ve managed just 38 total points in three games. Meanwhile, the Titans are doing exactly what we expected – struggling on both sides of the ball.
Game Details Box
Date: Sunday, September 28
Time: 5:01 PM ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: CBS
Current Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Line | Juice |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Houston Texans -7 | -110 |
| Total Points | Over/Under 38.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Houston -390 / Tennessee +295 | – |
Quick Translation: Houston needs to win by 8 or more points to cover the spread. The total means you’re betting whether both teams combine for more or less than 38.5 points. The moneyline shows Houston as heavy favorites – you’d need to bet $390 to win $100 on the Texans, while $100 on Tennessee pays $295.
Line Movement Analysis
The betting market is showing some interesting dynamics here. While we don’t have complete line movement data due to technical issues, the current 7-point spread suggests the market still has faith in Houston’s talent level. When you see a line this high between two winless teams, it usually means sharps are betting the favorite early, forcing books to inflate the number. This is called “reverse line movement” – when the line moves away from public betting patterns, typically indicating professional money on one side.
Want sharp action? Follow our weekly NFL betting predictions.
Key Matchups
The most critical battle will be Tennessee’s pass rush against Houston’s struggling offensive line. The Texans have allowed constant pressure on C.J. Stroud, particularly from the left side where Aireontae Ersery has been getting worked over. Tennessee’s defense ranks 30th in points allowed at 28.7 per game, but they’ve shown flashes of pass rush ability.
C.J. Stroud’s struggles: 599 passing yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs through three games
Houston’s offensive line: Bottom-5 PFF grades on the left side
Tennessee’s desperation factor: 0-3 teams historically cover 65% of games as road underdogs
Why Smart Bettors Like Tennessee
- Historical Trends — Winless teams as road underdogs have strong ATS value, especially in division games.
- Coaching Desperation — Brian Callahan just handed play-calling duties to QB coach Bo Hardegree, showing urgency.
- Houston’s Offensive Collapse — The Texans rank dead last in scoring at 12.7 points per game, making 7 points hard to cover.
Betting Recommendations
Primary Bet: Under 38.5 (-110) — Let’s be realistic here. These are two of the worst offenses in football right now. Houston hasn’t scored more than 15 points in any game this season, and Tennessee managed just 13 against Indianapolis last week. Both teams have shown they can play defense when motivated, and desperation often leads to conservative, clock-controlling game plans.
Secondary Consideration: Tennessee +7 has value if you believe in regression to the mean. Seven points is a lot of cushion for a division rival playing with nothing to lose.
What to Watch For
- Live betting opportunities if Houston takes an early lead – Tennessee’s spread value could increase
- Any late injury news on Will Anderson Jr. or Derek Stingley Jr. for Houston’s defense
- How Bo Hardegree’s play-calling affects Tennessee’s offensive rhythm
- Weather conditions that could further suppress scoring
Bottom Line Summary
This game screams under to me. Two struggling offenses, mounting pressure on both coaching staffs, and a historically low total that still might be too high. The market expects Houston to bounce back at home, but their offensive line issues aren’t getting fixed overnight. Tennessee has nothing to lose and everything to gain, making them a live underdog in a spot where they’ll play loose and aggressive.
Final Score Prediction: Houston Texans 16, Tennessee Titans 13.
KEY_ANGLE: Two worst offenses in NFL make under 38.5 the safest bet available.
