Loot Levinson breaks down both title fights at Madison Square Garden, including why Islam Makhachev and Valentina Shevchenko are the value sides for UFC 322 bettor
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev Picks
When: Saturday, November 15, 2025
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York
TV: PPV
Fight Analysis:
The UFC returns to the Big Apple with a pair of title fights. In the main event, Jack Della Maddalena makes the first defense of his UFC Welterweight Title against lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, who is rising in weight, looking to become a double-champion. Leading up to that is one of the more consequential female fights in history, as UFC Flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko defends her belt against longtime UFC Strawweight Champion Zhang Weili. Let’s get into it!
Jack Della Maddalena, 18-2 (12 KOs, 2 Submissions), (+215) vs. Islam Makhachev, 27-1, 5 KOs, 13 Submissions), (-260)—Odds by Bovada
Jack Della Maddalena defends his title against a rising-in-weight Islam Makhachev. It certainly looks to be a tall order for Maddalena against Makhachev. Then again, that’s what a lot of people said about him leading up to his fight against Belal Muhammad, a champion who hadn’t lost in 6 years. Now, he will be fighting a guy who hasn’t lost in ten years. Makhachev, five years Della Maddalena’s senior at 34, is coming off a dominant five-fight championship run at lightweight and is the prohibitive favorite to keep his title fight win streak alive in this fight.
You can understand why some would see this along the lines of a striker in Della Maddalena going against a wrestler-extraordinaire in Makhachev. There are always wrinkles within such stark frameworks. But while the reigning champion has scored a choke-submission in the UFC, it is really Makhachev who is more versatile outside of his main M.O. His striking was good enough to stop Della Maddalena’s esteemed countryman with his 2023 KO of Alexander Volkanovski, and he can be dangerous outside of his wrestling, which was galvanized in the mountains of Dagestan, working with monsters like Khabib Nurmagomedov.
In other words, if JDM manages to keep this one standing up, Makhachev is hardly lost after seeing him fare so well with guys like Volkanovski and even Dustin Poirier in spots, who is a fantastic striker. But that’s even IF the champion can keep this from going to the ground. And in trying to do so, he will be going against one of the more thorough wrestling specimens to ever grace the octagon. Coming off a first-round submission win earlier this year, you’re talking about a dialed-in Makhachev who is a hard man to dissuade. Della Maddalena is on a great 8-fight win streak. But despite fighting at a higher weight and coming off a win over the reigning champion, his ledger lacks the quality of Makhachev’s, whose list of wins reads like a who’s-who of top UFC talent for the past decade at or around the lightweight limit.
A 15-pound weight jump is no small thing, and Della Maddalena won this title by repelling the advances of a good wrestler in Muhammad, as he is quite slippery, uses good and purposeful movement, and works the angles well. His boxing is truly superb, and in Makhachev’s only slip-up professionally, he was clipped. I just think that in a fight of this magnitude in Madison Square Garden with the stakes being what they are, he’s going to be an awfully tough nut to crack. I’m taking Makhachev.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Islam Makhachev at -260 betting odds. I feel that the Bovada line has some upside for those looking to take a stand on one of the best MMA fighters of all time. It might not be easy, but over a 5-round distance, I see Makhachev finding a way to grind out a win.
Valentina Shevchenko, 25-4-1 (8 KOs, 7 Submissions), (-135) vs. Zhang Weili, 26-3 (11 KOs, 8 Submissions), (+115)—Odds by Bovada
UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko takes on longtime strawweight champ Zhang Weili in the co-main event of UFC 322. You’re likely looking at two of the top three all-time female fighters doing battle in a historic bout. Shevchenko, a year older than her opponent at 37, had a long kickboxing career (57-3) and is now having her 14th UFC championship bout. She has been around and then some. Weili, meanwhile, has been the UFC Strawweight Champion since 2019, except for a year and a half in 2021-22. Earlier this year, she defended her belt against Tatiana Suarez by 5-round unanimous decision.
There are some mitigating factors at play in this fight. The ten-pound weight jump for Weili is not insignificant. She hasn’t exactly been on fire with three straight somewhat forgettable decision wins in a row. But she might have a bit more in the tank than Shevchenko, who is clearly nearing the end. After a perfect title run from 2017-22, she lost her belt to Alexa Grosso and failed to regain it in a subsequent draw, before winning it back in their third fight. To her credit, he has since defended against tough Marion Fiorot. Still, despite being just one year older chronologically, her mileage might be adding up at this point.
At the same time, for Shevchenko to emerge from a trilogy at this stage of her career against Grasso with better results each passing fight, it shows she’s not done, as does a naked-eye appraisal. It’s a big fight for her, and I’d expect her urgency to be high. We’ve seen her grappling a bit more lately, and if the smaller Weili can’t gain the edge there in a clear-cut way, she will then enter the domain of Shevchenko’s striking. And with her background and track record, Shevchenko is just a little more technical and sharper than her opponent in that area. I expect Weili to have success both in grappling and striking, but I think the bigger imprint will be left by Shevchenko. I’m taking Valentina Shevchenko.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Valentina Shevchenko at -135 betting odds. The Bovada line might be exploitable with the bigger and more accomplished champion only a small favorite. Weili is not an easy out, having lost to one fighter in the last 14 years. I just feel in a fight this big, the older lioness still has one more left in her.
