UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Picks
When: Saturday, October 25, 2025
Where: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
TV: PPV
UFC 321 features a massive main event, with UFC Heavyweight Champion Tom Aspinall taking on top contender and former interim champion Ciryl Gane. With Jon Jones no longer an active UFC fighter, Aspinall is now the recognized champion and rightfully so, with this being the first official defense of what is now the clear-cut title. Gane, meanwhile, has lost to only Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou and won his last two fights to enter this one on a bit of a roll once again. But Aspinall has arrived at this spot via a path of total destruction, and Gane faces a massive challenge. Let’s break it down!
Fight Analysis
Tom Aspinall, 15-3 (12 KOs, 3 Submissions), (-410) vs. Ciryl Gane, 13-2 (6 KOs, 3 Submissions), (+305)—Odds by Bovada
UFC Heavyweight Champion Tom Aspinall defends his title against Ciryl Gane on October 25 in Abu Dhabi. This is a familiar landing spot for the UFC, with the champion Aspinall having appeared here twice previously. People can say what they want in regards to Aspinall getting to this spot without having beaten either Jones or Ngannou. The only two men to have beaten Gane, it’s hard to really criticize Aspinall for that, as he clearly wanted both fights to occur. At the same time, maybe we shouldn’t hold those defeats too much against Gane, as he at least went against the best.
Despite Aspinall getting here without beating those guys, his record has been unassailable other than a few missteps. In the first round against Curtis Blaydes in 2022, his knee blew out, and he lost. Other than that, all his UFC performances, other than one, have been first-round finishes, the other one being in the second round. Early in his career, he was DQd for illegal elbows, and he was also submitted in his fourth fight over a decade ago. All of his other fights have been quick wins, with only two even getting out of the first round.
It has been a while since we’ve seen Aspinall in the ring, as other fights fell through, namely the one with Jones. He will enter this having not fought in 15 months, with that being a rematch win over Blaydes that ended early in the first round, as so many of them do. Gane, meanwhile, has also been relatively inactive, his last fight being in December of last year. He beat a fighter he had previously beaten by unanimous decision in Alexander Volkov, but this time, it was more controversial, with many feeling he was a fortunate recipient of a favorable decision.
I think there lies the problem with Gane, now 35. Perhaps in some ways we’ve seen what he can do. And there’s nothing wrong at all with what we’ve seen—making it to near the top of the sport. But maybe that’s his ceiling. He looks the part, with a chiseled physique, along with a multitude of diverse skills that make him a legit threat against anyone he faces, particularly a guy like Aspinall, who perhaps isn’t the most-tested of all champions. While his loss to Jones in the first round, when the moment seemed to get to him, was a bad look, it’s really his only poor performance, as he did go the distance with the fearsome-punching Ngannou, in addition to stockpiling all those good wins he had on his way to establishing himself as a top guy in this division.
A position on Gane isn’t unfathomable at all. His one loss was by submission to a great in Jones, and that might not be the most realistic path to victory for Aspinall in this specific matchup. What if Gane is able to extend Aspinall, a man who has seldom come remotely close to hearing the bell, ending the second round? Is it possible that Aspinall is, in fact, very good, but that he has been made to look better by taking on the best of the rest of the division and not the best? After losing twice to the best, is Gane the man to enforce any of this?
Any stance against Aspinall includes what could be some misplaced optimism that the other guy can withstand the offensive hailstorm he inflicts at the onset of fights. Gane has shown himself to be reasonably durable, but against guys who aren’t laying everyone out in the first round. He moves so superbly and can throw so many different techniques out there that you’d think he has a decent chance to get out of the first round, give Aspinall some different looks, and maybe get him into deep water, an area in which Gane is more familiar.
It’s just that the case for Gane already rings like a loser’s case. He needs this and that to happen just right, and maybe then he can put himself into a position to potentially win. Contrast that to the case of Aspinall, who just needs to keep on doing what he’s doing. And sure, the odds account for that to some degree, but maybe not enough. There’s a chance that Gane’s movement, poise, and fight-IQ can counter Aspinall’s explosiveness and fight-ending power, but Aspinall also moves well, can match up size-wise, and brings so much sudden fight-ending power that it’s hard to go against him. I’m taking Aspinall.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Tom Aspinall to win at -410 betting odds. While the odds seem steep and the opponent is a top-class one, I think the odds that Gane can survive 25 minutes of this are more remote. Aspinall might need a bit more time than normal and encounter more resistance than is generally the case, but I still see him getting Gane out of there for his first title defense.
